Aug 28, 2021

COVID-19 Update

Seven out the top ten states with the worst COVID outbreaks are "red states", with either Republican governors or GOP-controlled legislatures or both.


There's an interview at WaPo with Dr Leana Wen about Health Policy and the badly uneven availability of care and public support for families that have to struggle just to survive here in USAmerica Inc.

CNN’s Leana Wen: ‘Public health is now under attack in a way that it has not been before’

Leana Wen, 38, is a physician, a CNN medical analyst, a contributing columnist at The Washington Post, and a former Baltimore health commissioner. Her latest book, “Lifelines: A Doctor’s Journey in the Fight for Public Health,” was released in July.

You write movingly in your book about your family relying on the social safety net, about difficult things you saw as a child — and how those influences shaped your path.

We came to the U.S. with $40. My parents were both professionals in China who had difficulty finding employment here. They worked multiple jobs, but we still really struggled. There were times when we could not make rent and were dependent on the good graces of people that we met, and sometimes we depended on shelters. We went through substantial periods of being dependent on some type of government service, whether food stamps, WIC, Medicaid, children’s health insurance. And I had an acute awareness as a child of what happens when people go without access to health care. I also had an acute awareness that people’s lives were not valued the same.

Do you remember when that understanding hit you?

I saw a neighbor’s child die in front of me as a child. And watching someone die from an illness that I knew was preventable — because I had asthma — left an imprint on me. And he died not because of lack of medical care, but because his family — his grandmother — was too afraid for what would happen to their family, that they could be deported, if they called for help. And so that’s what motivated me to go into medicine. I felt very strongly about caring for the most vulnerable, who otherwise would have nowhere else to go for their care.

But I had no idea how to actually become a doctor. I thought it was such an unbelievable aspiration that I was too afraid to even tell people that that’s what I wanted to do. In college, if anyone asked me — professors or classmates — I said, “I want to be a lab tech.” Because I was afraid that people would laugh at me if I said I wanted to be a doctor. That they would say, “Who are you to even think that you could do that?” Even after I took my MCATs and had good grades, I talked to the career counselor in this very large state university system. I think they wanted to set my expectations, so they said, “There are people like you who have similar test scores who applied to 40 medical schools and didn’t get into any of them.” But when I recounted this to one of my mentors, Raymond Garcia — I am so thankful to have incredible mentors — he said, “In that case, you have to apply to 41.” And that’s what I did.

As you reflected on your journey in writing your book, what would you say is the most difficult thing that you’ve had to confront?

Facing my stuttering and acknowledging that I am a person who stutters was probably the most difficult. I spent so much of my time and energy thinking about it and worrying about it. I mean, everything that I decided to do, from even deciding what courses I would be taking or whether I spoke up in a small-group discussion — everything — was centered around: Would I show that I stutter, would I show my disfluency? As a covert stutterer, I felt the pressure to substitute words that I think I might not get out the first time.

When I finally addressed my stuttering — I was almost through with medical school by the time that I finally sought therapy for speech — one of the exercises was making sure that we say what we want to say and not substitute words. I realized how much extra capacity I had in my brain! Because I was always thinking two sentences ahead. And trying to figure out what word might I stumble on and what word do I need to replace it with. And when I stopped having to do that, I thought, Oh my goodness. My mind is free to do so much else.

How has deciding to share these personal stories shaped the way you think about your role as a doctor, as a public health leader?

I come back a lot to a quote by Congressman Elijah Cummings about pain, passion and purpose, that you channel your pain into your passion that is your purpose. And, actually, it was really helpful for me to put into words sources of deep pain and realize that each of these things, in some way, was the source of my drive and why I’m doing what I’m doing.

You’ve said that responding to covid has been sort of a life calling for you. I want to ask your thoughts on vaccine hesitancy, and whether that stems, in part, from a failure in how things were handled?

Yeah. It’s the height of American exceptionalism that we are where we are. I have family in other parts of the world where health-care workers and vulnerable elderly people are begging to get the vaccine. And here, we’re sitting on stockpiles and begging people to take the vaccine.

I think how we got here is complicated, right? I agree with the surgeon general in issuing the advisory about misinformation and disinformation — certainly that plays a big role here. There are individuals out there who are knowingly spreading misinformation. There are others who are clicking and then, unfortunately, sharing misinformation that’s leading to question that and the efficacy of vaccines. That misinformation is taking away people’s freedom to make decisions for themselves and their families.

And I think the Biden administration needs to take some responsibility here, also, for their miscalculation and misjudgment in being so uneasy about vaccine verification and relying on the honor code. Come on. Did they really think that the honor system was going to work during a pandemic when many people behaved so dishonorably? The honor system did not work. And, of course, the unvaccinated are now running around living their lives as if they are vaccinated. And that’s led to the surge that we are now seeing. We lost the powerful incentive to increase vaccines in that really important window.

You said recently that to actually end the pandemic, we need to “make getting vaccinated the easy choice.” What specifically would you suggest?

I think there are three things that we can do now that would make a big difference. The first thing is to reset based on the knowledge that the delta variant is a lot more contagious and that we are now seeing major surges. This is a very different circumstance to when the CDC first issued their guidance. So I think the CDC needs to say that indoor mask mandates are needed in all areas where unvaccinated and vaccinated people are mixing, with two exceptions: One is if the community has a very high vaccination rate. And two is if there is proof of vaccination. Vaccinated people do not need to be wearing masks around other vaccinated people. They can be around other people without restrictions. That, in itself, would be a powerful statement about the effectiveness of the vaccines and help to incentivize vaccinations.

The second thing is the Biden administration really needs to get behind a vaccine verification system. There are many private enterprises, including concert venues, gyms, workplaces, universities, that want to create safe environments where people can be unmasked, but that only works if they are vaccinated.

And then third, I think that the federal government needs to move in the direction of vaccine mandates. Another way to reframe this is, everybody needs to do a health screen. So everybody needs to go for twice-weekly testing. But you can opt out of it if you have a vaccine.

And do you think that would be effective?

Yes. In fact, we have proof from France. When [President Emmanuel] Macron said that tests were going to be required to enter essentially any aspect of public social life — restaurants, bars, trains — the vaccine appointments went through the roof.

Do you think verification and mandates could work in the U.S. with our notions of freedom, individual liberty?

So I think we need to reframe freedom here, right? I don’t agree with the statement that some people have been putting out about vaccines, that this is just about personal choice. You can say that maybe eating unhealthy food is your personal choice. But in this case, nobody should have the right to carry an infectious disease that is able to endanger others and potentially kill them. I mean, I’ve got two little kids. I’m very upset thinking about how there are other people who are choosing not to be vaccinated. And as a result, they are choosing to endanger our children. I’m sure they’re not trying to do this intentionally, but that is the end result.

I hope that people see that by not being vaccinated, they’re actually impeding societal progress too. They’re making it harder for kids to get back in school. They’re making it harder for the economy to come back. And why are we allowed to make that kind of personal choice when we do not allow people to make the personal choice to go drunk driving?

The U.S. is sitting on stockpiles of vaccines while other countries have negligible numbers of people vaccinated. As a public health leader, what responsibility do you feel toward sharing vaccines with people around the world? What part should the U.S. play in global public health?

It’s a really important question. And I don’t have an easy answer here. Of course, from a humanitarian perspective, it’s essential that we share the vaccine with the rest of the world. It’s unconscionable for us to have a lifesaving remedy that so many people want in other parts of the world. From a selfish perspective as well, there’s a need to vaccinate the world. I heard the quote that said: If we don’t share the vaccine, the virus will share the world. I mean, this is a global virus, a global pandemic, that will only get worse with new emerging variants if we do not control the pandemic. So there is a self-interest reason, also.

It should not just be allocating the supplies that we have. It should be boosting supplies elsewhere. The U.S. should be doing a lot more when it comes to increasing manufacturing capabilities abroad. And I think, coming into the next several months, we’re going to face a lot more of these ethical challenges. Because, for example, what about booster shots? If it turns out that immunity does wane, and that, for some people, for most people, the immunity is not going to fall off a cliff. They’re not going to go from 99 percent immune to severe infection to zero, but might go from 99 percent to 80 percent. What are the ethics involved, then, of boosting them from 80 percent to 99 percent vs. giving it to our counterparts around the world? So I think there are going to be challenges moving forward.

You’ve expressed a lot of frustration with the different messages the CDC has shared. If you had been leading the CDC, or were leading it now, what would you do differently?

Well, I first want to say that it’s much easier for those of us on the outside to be criticizing. So when I speak out about some aspect of CDC guidance, it’s never meant to point fingers and say, “Aha, you did this wrong.” Rather, it’s about how this can be changed, what needs to be done.

Understandably, the Biden administration saw what happened during the Trump administration, where scientists were silenced, and data were manipulated for partisan aims and said: We don’t want to do that. But they have swung the pendulum too far to the other side. Following the science means you don’t manipulate scientific data, and your decisions are based on science. But public health is not just about science and knowing the right data. It’s about values. It’s understanding how to communicate those data to stakeholders. It’s getting the buy-in of others around you, and effective communication that earns people’s trust is essential to achieving your outcomes. And so the CDC is great at the science. They have been impeccable about the getting the data. But the interpretation of the data into policy cannot just involve the CDC. And, in fact, it needs to involve many stakeholders, both within the federal government and with local and state health departments, businesses, unions and so forth. If those entities were consulted around the guidance for fully vaccinated people, we wouldn’t be in the situation that we’re in now. Because any of them would have pointed out that the honor system would not have worked.

How much do you worry about hesitancy, not just around the vaccine, but mistrust of science and mistrust of public health even?

I worry about this a lot. You’ve seen what happened in Tennessee with the vaccine director being fired for trying to promote covid vaccines to adolescents. And even more disturbing, I think is that now, Tennessee health officials are being prohibited from promoting vaccines to children. Not just covid vaccines, but all other childhood immunizations. I mean, public health is now under attack in a way that it has not been before.

As a clinician, I talk to my patients all the time about vaccines. And I actually think that for us, as clinicians who also work in public health, drawing on those conversations is really important because that’s where change happens. I would say that for the people I’m seeing who are still unvaccinated, and there are a fair number of them, they are not anti-vaxxers. These are not people who are spreading disinformation online, who are going to anti-vaxxing rallies. I mean, these are individuals who have specific questions about the covid vaccine. The main reason is that they believe that they have more to fear from the vaccine than they do from the virus.

And what do you tell those patients?

I address whatever concerns they have, right? If I just started telling this patient, who has a very specific concern, all the benefits of vaccine, she’s only going to tune out and think that I am not really understanding — and I would not be able to earn her trust. And when I talk to other physicians about this as well, it’s the same. We talk to our patients. We address their concerns. We approach them with empathy and compassion and not with judgment. And I think that that’s the same lens that we bring to our public health work. Recognizing that the message is really important, but the messenger is too.

To many of my patients, I am the most credible messenger. But to some of them I’m not. And I need to recognize that in order to make a difference in their decision. And we also need to be enlisting other people in their lives as well. And that, I think, is a call to action for everyone that, no matter who you are, there is somebody out there for whom you are the most trusted messenger. So we have to meet an obligation to be that trusted messenger in someone else’s life.







Aug 27, 2021

Today's Deep Thought

A scuba-diving pregnant woman
is technically a submarine.

hat tip = Reddit r/showerthoughts

COVID-19 Update


With the prospects of having to do semi-annual booster shots, long haul covid, and now new information indicating even "mild" cases could have a near-chronic impact, this fuckin' thing could be with us - in way or another - for a very long time.

NYT: (pay wall)

Virus Symptoms Can Last a Year, Study Finds

Nearly half of patients in a new study were still experiencing issues a year later.

One year after becoming ill with the coronavirus, nearly half of patients in a large new study were still experiencing at least one lingering health symptom, adding to evidence that recovery from Covid-19 can be arduous and that the multifaceted condition known as “long Covid” can last for months.

The study, published Thursday in the journal The Lancet, is believed to be the largest to date in which patients were evaluated one year after being hospitalized for Covid. It involved 1,276 patients admitted to Jin Yin-tan Hospital in Wuhan, China, who were discharged between Jan. 7 and May 29, 2020.

The researchers, who also evaluated the patients six months after hospitalization, found that while many symptoms improved over time and many of the 479 people who had been employed when they got Covid had returned to their original job, 49 percent of patients still had at least one health problem.

And shortness of breath and mental health issues such as anxiety or depression were slightly more prevalent 12 months later than at the six-month mark, the researchers reported, saying the reasons for that “worrying” increase were unclear.

The researchers also compared the patients in the study with people in the community who had not had Covid but had similar pre-existing health conditions and other characteristics. After 12 months, Covid survivors had worse overall health than people who had not been infected. They were also much more likely to be experiencing pain or discomfort, anxiety or depression, and mobility problems than those who had not had the disease.

The patients, whose median age was 57, were given physical exams, lab tests and a standard measure of endurance and aerobic capacity called a six-minute walk test. They were also interviewed about their health.

The study involved patients who were sick enough to be hospitalized, but who were generally not the most severely debilitated. About 75 percent required supplemental oxygen when they were hospitalized, but most did not need intensive care, ventilators or even high-flow nasal oxygen, a noninvasive method.

Women were more likely than men to have some lingering symptoms, including mental health issues and lung function problems. One of the most common symptoms was fatigue or muscle weakness, reported by 20 percent of patients. But that represented a significant decrease from the 52 percent who reported such symptoms six months after hospitalization.

Some issues, like shortness of breath, were more common in people who had been more severely ill. But some issues did not correlate to severity of the initial illness. For example, 244 patients underwent a lung function test, which found that from six months to one year after hospitalization, there was no decrease in the proportion of patients with reduced flow of oxygen from their lungs to their bloodstream — regardless of how ill the patients had been initially.

“The need to understand and respond to long Covid is increasingly pressing,” said an editorial The Lancet published about the study. “Symptoms such as persistent fatigue, breathlessness, brain fog, and depression could debilitate many millions of people globally.”

It added: “Long Covid is a modern medical challenge of the first order.”






Aug 26, 2021

Today's Pix

click







































Today's Super Nerd

Katherine Johnson - Aug 26, 1918 - Feb 24, 2020



About That Climate Change Thing


I really don't want this to seem like I'm kicking them when they're down - that's not what this is about, even though it's going to be construed that way by some.

I'm hip, I get it, I feel your pain - and I'm more than willing to do what I can to help these folks. In fact, that's very much exactly what "the libtards" have been trying to do for more than 50 fucking years.

But boneheaded "conservatives" have been voting for dog-ass coin-operated politicians who have lied us all into a pretty shitty situation, and I'm not going to sugar-coat it.

This shitty situation is a shitty situation because deliberately ignorant Republican voters keep lining up to have outfits like DumFux News fill their fool heads with the worst kind of toxic political sludge anyone on any dozen planets can imagine.

NYT: (pay wall)

‘The Worst Thing I Can Ever Remember’: How Drought Is Crushing Ranchers

North Dakotans can’t grow enough feed for their cattle, so they’re selling off the animals before they starve.

TOWNER, N.D. — Darrell Rice stood in a field of corn he’d planted in early June, to be harvested in the fall and chopped up to feed the hundreds of cows and calves he raises in central North Dakota.

“It should be six, seven, eight foot tall,” he said, looking down at the stunted plants at his feet, their normally floppy leaves rolled tight against their stalks to conserve water in the summer heat.

Like ranchers across the state, Mr. Rice is suffering through an epic drought as bad or worse than anywhere else in this season of extreme weather in the Western half of the country.

A lack of snow last winter and almost no spring rain have created the driest conditions in generations. Ranchers are being forced to sell off portions of herds they have built up for years, often at fire-sale prices, to stay in business.

Some won’t make it.

“It’s a really bad situation,” said Randy Weigel, a cattle buyer, who said this drought may force some older ranchers to retire. “They’ve worked all their lives to get their cow herd to where they want, and now they don’t have enough feed to feed them.”

Since December, in the weekly maps produced by the United States Drought Monitor, all of North Dakota has been colored in shades of yellow, orange and red, symbolizing various degrees of drought. And since mid-May, McHenry County, where Mr. Rice ranches and farms, has been squarely in the middle of a swath of the darkest red, denoting the most extreme conditions.


The period from January 2020 to this June has been the driest 18 months in McHenry and 11 other counties in the state since modern record keeping began 126 years ago, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.


“I’ve been ranching for 47 years and then this year had to come along,” said John Marshall, who ranches with his son, Lane, not far from Mr. Rice in this sprawling county where the county seat, Towner, bills itself as the cattle capital of North Dakota. “It’s the worst thing I can ever remember.”

Drought conditions that are affecting nearly half the land area of the lower 48 states are helping send beef prices higher in America’s grocery stores. But ranchers here say they aren’t seeing that money — slaughterhouses and other middlemen are. If anything, the ranchers said, they are losing money because they are getting less from the forced sale of their animals.

The Marshalls have already sold about 100 cows and plan to sell at least another 120, which would leave them with about two-thirds of their usual herd. “Never had to do it before,” Mr. Marshall said.

Mr. Rice’s corn, which is stored as silage to feed his animals later in the year, is so short that if he tried to harvest now it he couldn’t. “It’s unchoppable,” he said.

If he gets some rain — a big if, as the forecast into the fall is for continued heat and dryness — the corn may reach six feet, or half its usual height. Even then he would be looking at a shortage of feed, and would very likely have to have his cows weighed at the communal ranchers’ scale off Main Street in Towner and then sold to a buyer elsewhere.

“If we don’t get silage,” he said, “the cows are going to town.”

Rachel Wald, who works for North Dakota State University advising and supporting ranchers, said that livestock auction houses, called sale barns, had been very busy this spring and summer. “We’ve got 2,000 critters heading down the road each week” in the county, she said. By some estimates, half the cattle in the state may be gone by fall.


For ranchers who have spent years building up the genetics of their herd, that can mean a giant step backward. “Every year we try to better our breed,” said Shelby Wallman, who with her husband, Daryl, has been ranching for decades in Rhame, in the southwestern corner of the state.

“It’s a calling,” she said. “You spend your entire life with these cattle. I can tell you, there’s going to be tears.”

North Dakotans have seen drought many times before. One in 1988 was particularly bad, although John Marshall and others who made it through that year said the current drought is worse.

Ranchers point to the variable nature of the climate here — where a dry year or two may easily be followed by a wet period — instead of talking about climate change. Yet climate change is occurring in North Dakota, as it is everywhere else.

“We’re at the epicenter of a changing climate,” said Adnan Akyuz, the state’s climatologist and a professor at North Dakota State University. The state has warmed by 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit (about 1.3 degrees Celsius) over the past century, he said. That’s one of the largest increases in the United States.

North Dakota’s climate is expected to become even more variable, with more extreme rainfall and heat. And as elsewhere, droughts are expected to grow in intensity and frequency.

Conditions are highly variable in large part because North Dakota is so far from the oceans, which have a moderating effect on climate. When the state doesn’t get moisture from them, it relies on local sources, including lakes, rivers and reservoirs, along with moist air that funnels into the region in late spring and summer from the Gulf of Mexico.

But that Gulf moisture did not arrive this year. And heat has dried up many of the local water sources. The result is air that sucks all the moisture it can from the soil and from plants.

Signs of drought-stressed vegetation can be seen across McHenry County. Stunted silage corn like Mr. Rice’s is called pineapple corn, because the tight leaves make it look more like a pineapple plant. Elsewhere, soybean plants have flipped their leaves over to reduce photosynthesis and thus the need for water, giving them a paler green appearance.

And in the Marshalls’ pastures, grass that would normally be green and reach the knee is brown and stubby.

The Marshalls rely on clean well water pumped into troughs for most of their cattle. But they and other ranchers also use watering holes, which collect snow runoff and rain. And as watering holes dry up, nutrients and other compounds in the water become more concentrated, which can sicken animals.

In one of the Marshalls’ watering holes, the level had dropped by several feet. Ms. Wald, from the university, tested for sulfates and dissolved solids and told the Marshalls that the water was still good. But she noticed something else.

“Lane, one of the things I’d watch out for here is actually blue-green algae,” she said. Amid the heat the organisms were flourishing and could eventually release toxins that could harm cattle. “If a bloom occurs you have to move the animals out of here and find them a new water source,” Ms. Wald said.

Like other ranchers, the Marshalls have bought supplemental feed. But with the drought sending feed prices higher, at some point it makes more financial sense to sell animals.

That has kept auctioneers busy. At a recent sale at Kist Livestock Auction in Mandan, just across the Missouri River from Bismarck, ranchers in pickup trucks, trailers in tow, lined up to unload cattle they couldn’t afford to keep.

Tom Fettig and his wife, Kim, were there with 60 yearlings, about half of a herd they were helping their son raise on the outskirts of Bismarck. The animals had been bought in February with the goal of fattening them until October, when they would be sold to a feedlot.

The drought ruined those plans. “We’ve only had them out on pasture since June 1,” Mr. Fettig said. “And there’s nothing left.”

Their hay crop has been abysmal as well. In a normal year they’d end up with 800 to 900 bales. So far this year they have only 21.

Inside the semicircular auction ring, the Fettigs sat on a bench and waited for their yearlings to come up for sale. They watched as a parade of other animals entered and the auctioneer, Darin Horner, rattled off prices in a droning hum. Weights and prices flashed on screens above the auctioneer’s head.

“There’s a nice set of steers right off the prairie,” Mr. Horner announced as the Fettigs’ animals crowded the ring in two groups of 30. They sold for about $1,250 apiece — perhaps $150 a head less, Mr. Fettig said, than if they’d been able to feed them all summer.

The Fettigs and John Marshall are fortunate in that their sons have followed them in the ranching business. But Jerry Kist, a co-owner of the auction barn, noted that older ranchers whose children have left the land were the most vulnerable in this drought, as were younger ranchers who don’t have ranching parents they can rely on to help them become established.

“You just don’t want to see these guys folding and selling their whole cow herd,” Mr. Kist said.