Apr 30, 2025

A Flip-Flopping We Will Go

How it was
Jan 2024

How it is
Apr 2025

Farmer Lady


Facts don't give a fuck about your feelings - markets do.

The Gish Gallop

I'm never going to let up on the Press Poodles for not fact-checking.

They may not be able to do it on the fly because 1) Trump slings the bullshit fast and furious, and 2) as we see in this mess about tattoos, he'll spend 3 minutes arguing against reality every time you stop him, so you're never going to get thru it.

The problem is that I'm hard-pressed to find any kind of post-mortem or followup on what he did or didn't lie about once they put the story to bed.

Joints like Meidas Touch do a decent job dissecting Trump's maniacal Gish Gallops.

Press Poodles, take note.


Numbers

  1. Consumer Confidence Index: ↓7.9 to 86.0
  2. Present Situation Index: ↓0.9 (overall)
  3. Expectations Index: ↓12 to 54*
* anything below 80 usually means we're tipping into recession



Putting Trump back in
the White House is like:
Oh no, I've shit my pants -
I guess I'd better change my shirt.

So much fucking winning.


US consumer confidence plummets to Covid-era low as trade war stokes anxiety

WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans’ confidence in the economy slumped for the fifth straight month to the lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic as anxiety over the impact of tariffs takes a heavy toll.

Five straight months. Remind me - how long ago was Trump elected?

The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell 7.9 points in April to 86, its lowest reading since May 2020. Nearly one-third of consumers expect hiring to slow in the coming months, nearly matching the level reached in April 2009, when the economy was mired in the Great Recession.

The figures reflect a rapidly souring mood among Americans, most of whom expect prices to rise because of the widespread tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. About half of Americans are also worried about the potential for a recession, according to a survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center.

“Rattled consumers spend less than confident consumers,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, in an email. “If confidence sags and consumers retrench, growth will go down.”

A measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for their income, business conditions and the job market plunged 12.5 points to 54.4, the lowest level in more than 13 years. The reading is well below 80, which typically signals a recession ahead.

How this gloomy mood translates into spending, hiring, and growth will become clearer in the coming days and weeks. On Wednesday, the government will report on U.S. economic growth during the first three months of the year, and economists are expecting a sharp slowdown as Americans pulled back on spending after a strong winter holiday shopping season.

And on Friday the Labor Department will release its latest report on hiring and the unemployment rate. Overall, economists expect it should still show steady job gains, though some forecast it could report sharply reduced hiring.

The stark decline in consumer confidence also likely reflected the sharp swings in stock and bond prices that roiled financial markets earlier this month. While all age groups and most income brackets reported lower confidence, the decline was steepest among households earning more than $125,000 and among consumers 35 to 55 years old.

Though major U.S. markets rebounded over the past week, the S&P 500 is still down 6% for the year and the Dow Jones has lost 5%. The growth-heavy Nasdaq is down 10% in 2025.

The Conference Board said that mentions of tariffs in write-in responses reached an all-time high this month, with the duties on the top of consumers’ minds. Trump has imposed a tariff of 10% on nearly all imports, as well as a huge 145% tariff on most goods from China. He has imposed separate import taxes on steel, aluminum, and cars.

More Americans are also now worried that the economy could tip into a recession, with the proportion of consumers expecting a downturn in the next 12 months reaching a two-year high.

Fewer consumers said they were planning to buy a home or car in the next six months. Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes slowed last month in a lackluster start to the spring homebuying season as elevated mortgage rates and rising prices discouraged those looking.

And Americans also said they would spend less on services. The proportion of Americans planning an overseas vacation in the next six months fell to 16.4%, down from 24.1% in December. And the proportion of consumers planning to spend more on dining out plummeted by nearly the most on record in April, the Conference Board said.




Tame March PCE inflation no salve after downbeat Q1 US GDP report

April 30 (Reuters) - Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, surged 0.7% in March after an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in February, the Commerce Department' said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending would rise 0.5% after a previously reported 0.4% increase in February.
The data was included in the advance gross domestic product report for the first quarter that was published earlier on Wednesday, which showed GDP contracted at a 0.3% annualized rate last quarter, weighed down by a record surge in imports.

President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs have fanned fears the economy is facing a period of tepid growth, even recession, and high inflation, commonly referred to as stagflation. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index was unchanged in March after advancing 0.4% in February. In the 12 months through March, PCE prices increased 2.3% after rising 2.7% in February.

MARKET REACTION:

STOCKS: The S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab was down 1.7%, holding losses after the data but off the day's lowest levels

BONDS: U.S. Treasury 10-year yield seesawed in a small range and was up 0.5 bp at 4.1792%. The two-year yield was 4.1 bp lower at 3.617%

FOREX: The dollar index likewise gyrated and was 0.28% higher

COMMENTS:

CHARLIE RIPLEY, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, ALLIANZ INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, MOUND, MINNESOTA
"Personal consumption was up slightly from expectations. When you layer in the (PCE) inflation data, it was a little bit better than expected from an overall perspective, coming in a little bit lighter. But I don't think that's the number that the market's reading too much into."
"The labor market data is really key as we go forward from here... any meaningful slowdown in hiring or job separations is going to lead to a deterioration in consumption."
"The Fed has been very data dependent and they're going to want to see some of this hard data like GDP and some of the labor market data really show signs of weakness. We are starting to see a little bit of that, which is really why you're seeing the market reacting the way it is today."

OLIVER PURSCHE, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, ADVISOR, WEALTHSPIRE ADVISORS, WESTPORT, CONNECTICUT
"It's important to realize that a large chunk of the fall in GDP is due to the sharp increase in imports, which take away from GDP growth. And that's probably due to the expectation of tariffs. So, if you were to normalize that, you end up with positive GDP growth for the quarter, but it certainly doesn't bode well for Q2, which is why the market is selling off.
 
HARRY CHAMBERS, ASSISTANT ECONOMIST, CAPITAL ECONOMICS, LONDON (by email)
"The almost unchanged level of core PCE prices in March is welcome news but, given the data precede the implementation of broad-based tariffs, core inflation will inevitably rebound sharply in the coming months. Otherwise, the strong rise in real consumer spending last month should soothe fears that consumers are retrenching in the face of economic uncertainty.
"The 0.03% m/m rise in core PCE prices is smallest rise since April 2020 and the first below-target-consistent reading in four months. It pushed the annual core inflation rate down to 2.6%, from an upwardly-revised 3.0% in February. The three- and six- month annualized rates also fell to 3.5% and 3.0% respectively. The breakdown shows a fall in core goods prices, whereas core services prices edged up. That said, March’s data naturally do not reflect the impact of the broad-based tariffs implemented in April, so goods prices will rise much more strongly in the coming months. As a result, we expect core PCE inflation to reach a peak of almost 4% later this year."

BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN
"Weak private sector payroll growth, faster inflation than expected, and a negative GDP print all point in the direction of stagflation. To get the stagflation of the late '70s and early '80s would require much higher unemployment and inflation, so this is more of an aroma of stagflation than an actual stench of stagflation.
"On the surface, the negative sign on GDP growth is upsetting, but final sales to domestic purchasers increased at a pretty decent 3% annualized pace. The surge in imports showed up mostly in information processing equipment and is in the “investments” bucket of GDP.
"It’s unfortunate that the convention is to focus on spending instead of production. In GDP, the P stands for production, not spending. To back into actual production, they subtract out imports, so it perpetuates the myth that imports are a bad thing.
"Real Gross Value Added is a better way to look at actual production instead of spending. Those details show where the real pain is being felt. Business value add fell 0.65% with farm value add falling a massive 35%. Federal government value add fell 1.6%."

ROBERT PAVLIK, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER AT DAKOTA WEALTH IN FAIRFIELD, CONNECTICUT
"Inflation is up. The economy is slowing more. It's not a great environment for the equity market. GDP is backward looking but it doesn't portend good information going forward not with the environment we're currently in. There's still uncertainty with the trade tariffs being high, and uncertainty around what's going to happen."
"People are pulling back on spending. People not being sure about their jobs. If you're unsure about your job you're certainly not going to be making major purchases or life changing decisions as far as purchases are concerned."

WASIF LATIF, PRESIDENT AND CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, SARMAYA PARTNERS, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY
“It’s a surprising number to the market on the downside. This is sort of in line with what we've been anticipating that we might be entering into a 70s-like scenario with weakening economic growth and still sticky, persistent inflation. That’s where you are seeing the response between bond yields moving up and equities going down. But we do need to take a step back because there is some noise in this GDP report because of the pull forward activity on inventory build and then the shipments of gold that impacted the international trade number that goes into the GDP data.”

LOU BRIEN, MARKET STRATEGIST, DRW TRADING, CHICAGO
"When you look to real final sales, which fell 2.5%, that's the GDP not counting the inventory data, that's a significantly weak number. It's the weakest since the pandemic period and prior to the pandemic you have to go back to 2009 to find a quarter that has a weaker real final sales. So I think that's probably the reason for the bonds to jump initially, but reconsidering, they probably looked over to the inflation measures, the GDP deflator and the PCE core, both significantly higher than anticipated. And so there was a little bit of a push me pull you on the bond market as a result of the report."

PETER ANDERSEN, FOUNDER OF ANDERSEN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, BOSTON
"There shouldn't be a surprise, but the market is acting as if it is a surprise. This period where tariffs are trying to be negotiated and acknowledged by the market makes things extremely difficult to model, predict, etc. When the market cannot make a reasonable prediction, it tends to turn to the pessimistic interpretation of things."

PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK
“The economy has shown negative growth, which means that we are probably already in a mild recession, or we're about to enter a mild recession.”
“That's obviously bad news but I would kind of think that the market has been already discounting the possibility of a mild recession now.”
“We got to these numbers because of Trump's policies, right? They've created uncertainty and when you create uncertainty, nobody's going to put their foot on the accelerator, and we're seeing that as the earnings come out, right? Guidance has been pulled back.”
“So Trump's policies have created this. But you know, he himself many times has said we might be headed for recession. He's not denied that. Is he going to take a victory lap with these numbers? No, of course not.”
“But these numbers may accelerate the administration in perhaps reversing the tariff policy, and that would psychologically be a big boost to the economy.”
“I think the damage has already been done and so no matter what they do now, they just have to hope that the recession is not a steep one and that the there is a positive ending to the tariff situation. That's what the administration needs to hope for at this point.”

JAMIE COX MANAGING PARTNER, HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUP, RICHMOND VIRGINIA.
"I'm not surprised the headline GDP print wasn't worse, given the surge in imports. Underneath, however, real final demand remains super strong. Those who underestimate the US consumer, do so at their own peril."

Apr 29, 2025

100 Days Of Shit

Let's review, shall we?


No Good Germans Please

Gettin' pretty fuckin' sick of this shit.
  • The assholes who attacked that lady doctor in Idaho showed no ID, and wore no uniforms or insignia.
  • The assholes who nabbed that grad student at Tufts showed no ID, and wore no uniforms or insignia.
  • The assholes who grabbed the guy in Charlottesville showed no ID, and wore no uniforms or insignia.
People are being disappeared, goddammit.

Don't just sit there pretending it's not happening. And don't start thinking it can't happen to you.



ICE Arrest Virginia Man in Court Despite Judge Dropping Charges Against Him

Federal immigration authorities detained a man at the Albemarle County Courthouse in Charlottesville, Virginia, after a judge had dismissed charges against him.

"Following the dismissal of a misdemeanor state charge, our client exited the courtroom into the lobby and was physically detained by three men," public defender Nicholas Reppucci told Newsweek.
"The men showed no identification that they were law enforcement, nor that they had a valid arrest warrant."

Newsweek has contacted Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for comment.

Why It Matters

President Donald Trump, who returned to office in January, has pledged to deport millions of undocumented immigrants. His administration's hard-line immigration agenda has sparked concern about the involvement of federal agents in local legal proceedings—in this case particularly regarding the lack of transparency in their actions at courthouses.

What To Know

A man who appeared in Albemarle County General District Court on April 22 to face assault charges had those charges dropped but was taken into custody shortly afterward by three plainclothes individuals.

Video footage obtained by 29 News shows a man being approached and restrained in an unrestricted portion of the courthouse lobby by multiple individuals, one of whom is wearing a full-face balaclava. Though bystanders asked what was happening, the individuals did not present a warrant or official identification when requested.

Despite the concerns raised by those present, the man was placed in handcuffs and escorted from the building, with the video ending as he was removed from the scene.

"It is extremely unusual for law enforcement to not show a badge of authority demonstrating they were legally entitled to seize the individual," Reppucci said. "Even more inappropriate and problematic, one of the individuals was wearing a mask to conceal his identity (which is illegal under Virginia state law)."

He added that the Charlottesville public defender's office was "working hard to develop and fine tune a new protocol to protect all our clients and their support networks moving forward."

The public defender's office was representing Teodoro Dominguez Rodriguez, who was arrested along with another man by the masked agents.

Albemarle County Commonwealth Attorney James Hingeley, who was not present at the time of the arrests, said in a statement that he was investigating the incident. While he expressed relief that no one was injured, he voiced concerns that arrests of this nature by ICE could potentially lead to violence.

He told Newsweek, "ICE operations conducted in the manner of the courthouse arrests on April 23, where lawful authority to arrest was not displayed, constitute a grave danger to our community."

The county courthouse is under the jurisdiction of Sheriff Chan Bryant. In a news release, Bryant said the federal agents showed paperwork and credentials to the bailiffs before making the arrests.

"When the agents were presenting their identification and credential, none of the agents were wearing any face coverings. The agents informed the bailiffs at that time that they were there to detain two individuals who had court cases in the Albemarle County General District Court," Bryant said.

"The federal agents showed the bailiff their paperwork and photographs of the individuals they were looking for and waited outside the courtroom until the conclusion of each case," he added.

In response to concerns over the recent incident at the Albemarle County General District Court, state Senator Creigh Deeds and Delegate Katrina Callsen submitted a Freedom of Information Act request to Albemarle County.

The lawmakers, who seek to obtain answers regarding the presence and actions of plainclothes Department of Homeland Security agents at the courthouse, plan to make the findings publicly available.

Protests erupted outside the Albemarle County Courthouse on Wednesday, with more than 100 people gathering to oppose the arrests.

What People Are Saying

Public defender Nicholas Reppucci told Newsweek: "The decision to execute an immigration seizure at a state courthouse is horrible public policy. Inevitably, this detention will have a severe chilling effect on peoples' willingness to come to court on all matters of disputes, both civil and criminal. Individuals will be less likely to pursue civil protective orders or abide by lawful subpoenas; witnesses on both sides of any issue will be less likely to appear in court. As a result, local courts will be less efficient, less accurate, and less just.

"Additionally, people will be less likely to call the police if they observe criminal activity or are the victims of a crime. They will be less willing to provide important pertinent information to law enforcement and less likely to intervene to help others if they see people being victimized. There will be a significant increase in unreported crime across all categories. It is not just the undocumented community that will be negatively affected, but everyone who lives in, works in, or visits Charlottesville. Our community is less safe and just than it was a few days ago."

Albemarle County Commonwealth Attorney James Hingeley said in a statement: "The information I have reviewed so far indicates that these alleged law enforcement agents did not display a badge or other indication of authority that would empower them to make lawful arrests in these circumstances. I am grateful that no one was hurt in this operation, but I am also greatly concerned that arrests carried out in this manner could escalate into a violent confrontation, because the person being arrested or bystanders might resist what appears on its face to be an unlawful assault and abduction."

Sheriff Chan Bryant said in a statement: "I want to be clear to the citizens of Albemarle County that the safety and security of the citizens and its courts are the top priority of our office. At no time was this a raid of the courthouse. These individuals were identified by the federal agents and taken into custody with paperwork in hand for them. Which would be the same practice whether it be Albemarle or Charlottesville police, state agencies or federal agencies."

Delegate Katrina Callsen wrote on X, formerly Twitter: "Senator Deeds and I penned a letter to Albemarle County requesting more information regarding the presence of plain-clothed Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) agents operating at the Albemarle County Courthouse."

What Happens Next

It remains to be seen whether further information surrounding the nature of the arrest will be released.

Today's PG


The Fallout Begins


Scuttlebutt:
Truckers are taking a pass on carrying stuff to the west coast. Empty ports on the Pacific means they'd have to dead-head it back because there's nothing for them pick up for the return trip.

Trump's trade war means freight haulers would be doing the same amount of work for half the pay.

The future for trucking (and rail, for that matter) is pretty bleak right now - and will not rebound in a big hurry. Even if Trump reversed himself today, it'll be months - if not years - before we get back what we're losing.

I hate that fuckin' guy.

Crashing And Burning


I need someone to explain to me how Teslas aren't just fancied-up versions of the '72 Pinto.


People are still being burned alive in Teslas

Tesla manual door releases are a deadly problem. It just happened again.

Yet another tragic story of people being trapped inside a burning Tesla, this time in Toronto. 

Four dead; one rescued when a bystander smashed a window: https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/four-passengers-die-after-being-trapped-in-burning-tesla-after-electronic-doors-seemingly-wont-open/ar-AA1tYcwj

This has been going on for years. At least some of the victims were definitely alive and trying to escape a burning Tesla when door lock power was lost. Some escaped. Some did not. Below is a writeup I posted on a blog in 2022. Nothing has really changed. The Tesla door release situation is a fatality-via-burning-alive waiting to happen. As it has multiple times at this point.

The usual Tesla fan response is that drivers are responsible for knowing the arcana of their car and, apparently, deserve to die if they cannot operate a manual release in a crisis. In some models this requires removing a speaker grill. While the car is actually on fire.

I have even less sympathy for that argument when casual passengers in the back seat don’t know the emergency release is under the carpet (model S), possibly requiring a screwdriver to access, or that there is no emergency release in the back seat at all (model 3). Do you read the owner manual when someone gives you a ride? Is it OK to not be able to open rear doors when the battery catches fire after a crash? This is a problem long past due for improvement.

Phil Koopman, (May 25, 2022) The Tesla manual door releases -- and lack thereof in some cases -- present unreasonable risk. What in the world were they thinking? Really bad human interface design. The door handles are not operable from the outside if electrical power has been lost. And from inside you need to use a manual release. Cool design shouldn't come at expense of life critical peril. This article sums up the latest, but this has been going on for a long time.

Tesla fans seem to be saying that it is the driver's responsibility to know where the manual release latch is to escape in case of fire. Anyone who doesn't is (and has in past fires) been ridiculed on-line for not knowing where the manual release is hidden. Even if they died due to not successfully operating the control, or having to kick the window out, somehow they are the idiots and it is their fault, not Tesla's. (If someone you love has died or been injured in this way you have my sympathy, and it is the trolls who are idiots, not your loved one.)

On-line articles saying "here's how to operate the door release so you don't die in a Tesla fire" tell you there is a problem. This design is unreasonably risky for real world use. A "bet you didn't know -- so here is how to not die" article in social media means there is unacceptable risk. Example: "Tesla Model Y fire incident: remember, there's a manual door release, here's how to use it in an emergency."

Front doors you have to lift up a not particularly obvious lever in front of the window switches that is easy to miss if you don't know it is there. Maybe if you have used it a few times -- but if you never realized it is there or you have rented/borrowed the car, good luck with that. I'd probably have trouble finding it even if I weren't suffocating from smoke from a battery fire. (Have you ever had to consult the owner manual to find your hood release? Imagine doing that to find out how to open the door when your car is literally on fire -- oh, but if it is an electronic manual and you've lost power, you can't do that on the center console, can you?)

And if you're a passenger and driver is unconscious you will have issues. Do you read all the safety instructions in the driver manual when you catch a quick ride as a passenger with a friend? Does your friend brief you on escape safety features so you can exit before a 5 minute ride? Thought not.

But wait, there's more (pictures later in this writeup).

Model S rear door: "fold back the edge of the carpet" to find a pull cable; some report needing a tool to access the pull.

Model X falcon wing doors: "carefully remove the speaker grille from the door and pull the mechanical release cable..." You might need a tool to do this as well.

Model 3 rear door -- NOT EQUIPPED WITH MANUAL RELEASE (from manual: "Only the front doors are equipped with a manual door release")

So I guess the passengers in the back are kind of expendable. Good to know when you’re in the back seat of a Uber/Lyft Tesla ride.

This is stunningly bad human interface design. It is entirely unreasonable to expect an ordinary car owner to know where a hidden/non-obvious emergency control is and activate it when they are trapped inside a burning car. Possibly using a tool they don’t have available. Let alone passengers. Apparently without mandatory training and mandatory periodic refresher training.

Anyone who thinks it is reasonable to expect someone not trained in military/aviation/etc. to get this right probably has not served or been through that type of training. I have been through tons of training. Emergency drills that might give some nightmares (sealed inside a tank with broken pipes and told to plug the flooding was extra-special — all three times). And sometimes the real thing. Not always with perfect execution, because there is compelling data showing humans suck at performing complicated, non-reflex-trained tasks under stress (and thus, more practice, more drills).

Education and shaming won't prevent the next death from this unreasonable risk. Everyone should be thinking twice about risking their life on this hot mess of an egress system.

I can't imagine why NHTSA wouldn't want to do a recall on this.

Today's WTF

How come nothing normal ever happens anymore?

It appears as though the New England Patriots team plane took a little jaunt to Gitmo.

C'mon, seriously - what the actual fuck?