Aug 3, 2011

Double Dip

I'm tryin' hard to figure out how the Debt Deal doesn't make things worse.  An awful lot of people are stuck in this kind of economic limbo, where treading water is about all they can hope for in the near and mid term; and when the average age of the American worker is close to 52, "middle term" can easily mean the remainder of your working life when the economy is stuck in the doldrums.  So while there's a fair stack of good news for households in the $200K+ category, that leaves a huge number of "middle classers" at risk of losing buoyancy and slipping under.

Here's the thing:  There's no substitute for demand.  The law is the law, and no combination of ideology and happy talk is going to change the simple fact that demand drives inflation and inflation is what makes capitalism work in the first place.  You can argue all you want about regulating the thing appropriately, but that's a different conversation.  If your premise is false, your conclusion CANNOT be true.  Demand is everything.  Every time we've tried to move away from that bedrock principle, we've seen some extremely bad shit pile up on us.

So if we take this debt deal at face value (not particularly valid, but ya gotta start somewhere), then what I see is an attempt to remove about $200 Billion worth of demand from the system every year for 10 years.

Here's my clever representation of this dynamic as a DOS batch file:
10: demand goes down, prices go down
20: prices go down, wages go down
30: wages go down, demand goes down
40: GO TO 10

No matter what, Obama owns this thing now.  What exactly he owns is up for debate.  And of course, the main point is to look at what affect this acton and the politics of this action will have on campaign contributions for 2012.

Contributors get people elected.  Big Contributors (eg: Target) that have aligned themselves  too closely with political issues that proved to be unpopular have taken occasionally severe beatings.

I think the strategy is for the White House to continue sending very strong signals to the business community to the effect that "this next part of the shift is on; this is for real and the smart money is backing policy that is fact-based, pragmatic and market-driven - not the Looney Toons bullshit coming from the wingnuts who think everything'll be fine if we just close our eyes and pretend it's 1954."

What if Obama really is playing way over all of our heads?  Maybe he's giving us the impression of the rope-a-dope, or the 3D chess master (remember that the Press Poodles aren't really all that bright - their job is to smash-fit whatever is going on into a prepackaged narrative).  What if Obama is actually working towards a position that forces the Tea Party GOP to isolate itself to the point where it consists of nothing but Michelle Bachmann, Rand Paul, Pat Robertson and The Koch Bros?  But if that's true on the Repub side, then it can just as easily mean he's in the process of stripping away the the hardcore leftie base of the Dems.  All of which translates to the emergence of a "new political entity" - which probably isn't really new at all.

As always, we'll see.  Or at least we'll see something that may or may not be what actually happened.  Maybe we should call this Quantum Politics.  We see only the evidence that something MIGHT have happened, and we're left to theorize as to whether or not it was "real".

Aug 2, 2011

Reconstruction (update)

Pretty good day yesterday and a good night last night.  Up at about 5 this AM.

I had the first of what will be several home visits from Lee (nurse) and Laurie (PT) yesterday.  They both told me I'm doing a lot better than most of the people they see.  This is one of those things that you can't possibly take any credit for, but find it hard to say anything other than thank you.  Kinda like when somebody says you have beautiful kids:  "Why thank you - I made them myself, you know; and I don't mind telling you how hard it is to get all that genetic sequencing just right..."  Anyway, it's nice having a winning ticket on that little slice of Life's Grand Lottery.  Pain levels have been very reasonable so far, and the pain is what they worry most about.  If you can't knock down the pain, then you can't do the exercises, and it'll take longer to get back to a healthy state; and many times, you never get back to where you need to be.  So they send you home with a basketful of meds, most of which are aimed at the pain.

My drug regimen for the next couple of months has me taking a daily cocktail of 5 medications (all of which are added to whatever I was on before the surgery of course).  Luckily, I've always resisted the paradigm of Health Management by Prescription, so other than my One-A-Day vitamin supplement, I started with a more or less clean slate.

Coumadin (to prevent blood clotting)
Indomethacin (anti-inflammatory)
Tramadol (non-narcotic pain killer)
Oxycodone (narcotic pain killer)
Colace (stool softener - constipation is always number one on the list of side effects for pain meds)

Anyway, I have a set of 10 exercises that I need to do 2 or 3 times a day that are aimed at simply getting the musculature back into place to support the new joint.  God's design (particularly of the lower back and hips) became obsolete once we started walkin' around on our hind legs.  When the joint deteriorates to the point where you have to replace original equipment with steel and plastic, you have to cut away most of the tendons and ligaments, and rely on the body's amazing adaptive capabilities to substitute muscle as the support structure.  Obviously, they have to cut thru a good inch and a half of meat and then pry the muscles away from the bones to expose the parts of the joint that have to be removed and sculpted in order to accept the replacement parts. (Orthopods often refer to themselves as carpenters, btw)  So the rehab is all about training the muscles to take over the functions of keepin the joint in place as the wound heals and the muscles re-attach to the bone.

I'm still working on some of the different angles of this thing, primarily looking for the If/Then/Else algorithms that drive this weird system of ours.  Some of the costs outlined on the Explanation(s) Of Benefits we've gotten so far are a bit shocking, so more on all of that later.

Aug 1, 2011

Reconstruction (update)

Day 4 Post-Op:
OK night.  Still pretty stiff, and I've gotten some noticeable swelling going now in my left leg.

I came home with:
Coumadin (blood thinner)
Oxycodone (pain killer)
Tramdol (non-narcotic pain killer)
Colase (stool softener - to counteract constipation due to the pain killers)

Avoiding the oxycodone in favor of tramadol, just trying to stay as drug-free (and as uncomplicated) as possible.

Expecting first visits from Nursing and Physical Therapy this PM.

Debt Deal

The headlines are all saying a deal's been worked out; and of course, "the lefties" are up in arms because they see it as Obama caving to the demands of the Tea Partiers, while the wingnuts on the radical right say they hate it because it requires compromise and lacks the kind of purity they say God sent their guys to Washington to establish.

So I don't wanna be too centrist about all this, but when everybody makes a big show of being upset with something happening in DC, you can be certain of a couple of things:
1) Some very important constituencies are making loud noises about losing some of their clout.
2) Somehow, the really good politicians manage to stay in power through all this "upheaval and change".

Cutting to the chase, while not meaning to oversimplify: First, remind yourself that contributors are the ones who get a politician elected - voters are the people who go to the polls and confirm the results that the contributors have paid for in advance.

Second, that means we're talking about politicians representing their Contributors, while the Contributors represent various Voting Factions.  We've been more and more accepting of the notion that "government should look and act like a business" - well, we've largely achieved exactly that.  We've evolved a system that's installed a layer of Middle Mgmt (ie: Lobbying Firms, PACs, Think Tanks, etc), and those middle managers have taken on some very important tasks that used to be the responsibilities of the elected officials.  eg: We have Lobbyists who are hiring people to investigate, draft and negotiate legislation.  We have Representatives who are then acting like a Sales team as they try to convince the voters that this piece of legislation is a good thing.

There are many more wrinkles and convolutions of course, and I don't think I have a direct line to the truth here, but I think it's safe to say we're nowhere near the kind of democracy we were told about in school.

If I accept the premise that "government should look and act like a business", am I not also expected to draw the inference that "government should look and act less like a democracy"?

Taken together, I think this debt debate and the the fact there are Repub advantages in Governorships and Statehouse Majorities and on down to County Boards and City Councils means that Repubs believe they're on the verge of something pretty big.

I find it hard to disagree.  I think we could be one or two election cycles away from taking the final plunge.  They'll keep telling us this is what democracy is, and we'll keep trying harder and harder to believe we haven't completely fucked up the greatest thing ever - blue pills for everybody.  In a binary world, your only choices are conformity and death.

Hoping against hope that I'm wrong.

Jul 31, 2011

Reconstruction (predate)

I remember nothing from the time they came to get me in the Pre-Op room and when they installed me in my regular bed.  I was of course hoping to remember having said something witty and brave, but there's literally nothing there.  I must be incredibly susceptible to the affects of the narcotics they're using these days.

The original plan was to get to the room and try to get up and around that afternoon.  But that didn't work out, so they came in the next day.  I don't mind telling you I was shocked at the level of pain the first time I got out of that bed.  I don't think I managed my morphine very well.

Reconstruction (update)

Got here at about 8am Thur, 7-28; going home today (Sun 7-31) at about 11am.  It's weird because I don't feel that much different in some respects.  eg: It hurts a lot when I move in certain ways.   I have to remember that Dr Browne has fixed the main dysfunctions, and so the main causes of pain in my hip are gone now, replaced by new causes of pain, but ones which will heal and improve, and cause less pain as time passes.

There's a subtle shift in mindset that actually flips me over from entropy and disintegration, to  an outlook considerably more in keeping with my general expectations for improvement and advancement.

I think a lot of people see me as cynical, but I believe my outlook is pretty optimistic.  I think you have to work pretty hard to maintain an appropriate level of skepticism, so I'm sure that gets misperceived as cynicism.  What I'm talking about is pushing things forward, gently or aggressively, according to what the facts dictate is possible to achieve.  For the first time in a good stretch of years, I have the feeling that on a personal level, I have a real shot at making things better.  I'm enough of a Randian to understand that as I make myself better for myself, I have a better shot at making the rest of my little corner of the world better for everybody who shares it with me.  That's how it's always worked before anyway, so here's hopin'.

Reconstruction (update)

Prob'ly going home today.  2 pretty good nights in a row.  Mostly headaches are the big problem, because (I think) when I sleep on my back, slightly elevated, I end up with some tension in my neck that gives me the headache.  Dunno - could also be caffeine withdrawal - just guessing.  Nobody else seems to know much either.

It always amazes me that the hospital is where you go to get better, but for whatever reason, you feel bad the whole time you're there.

Jul 30, 2011

Reconstruction (update)

Day 2 Post-Op.  Difficult night, mostly because everything's uncomfortable.  There's no position - sitting or lying down - that works for any real length of time.  I feel hung over.  Kinda light headed and shaky and with a low-level headache, no appetite and mild nausea.

It makes some sense that discontinuing the morphine will make a big diference.  They were concerned enough to send me down for xrays a couple of hours ago to make sure there's no obstructions,  Waiting  to hear.

But, last nite and this AM, I was able to negotiate 3 trips to the bathroom to pee.  Much rejoicing.

Jul 27, 2011

Reconstruction

Here's an approximation of what my left hip looks like, compared with normal:



























By this time tomorrow, I should be chillin' in the recovery room under the influence of heavy sedation, with my brand new, store-bought hip joint in place.

Not looking forward to 3 days in the hospital, and 6 weeks of nuthin' but rehab before I can start doing what I wanna do, but if I get to walk around like a normal human again, I'll take whatever they're offering.

I hope to be able to do some updates while I'm stuck in bed over the weekend.  If nothing else, I'll see y'all on the other side.


Jul 19, 2011

A Thought

It's never about what they say it's about.

What if the GOP crazies are willing to default on the debt because they think it's a clever way to fuck the Chinese?

Just wonderin'.

Elizabeth Warren And Today's Quote

Ask a smart and qualified woman what it means to her when somebody calls her a "know-it-all", and I'm guessing you'll hear back something like, "It means I kept using my brain even after no one wanted to fuck me anymore" -- to bastardize a line from Tina Fey (via Jason Linkens).

I think we're missing a huge opportunity to straighten out some serious shit by not getting Elizabeth Warren confirmed to head up the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.  But now there's talk of running her for senate.  Could be interesting.


Rupertgate

Standard play - claim victimhood and blame "the media".

In one way, I just gotta give 'em props. The bottom of the shit-hole I like to call DumFux News will simply never be reached.


Read this From James Fallows at the Atlantic.

Balanced Budget Nonsense

Bruce Bartlett is becoming a real hero for me.
Historically, those supporting a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution were only interested in balance per se. That is, requiring that revenues and expenditures be as close to equal as possible. The view was that if the states – almost all of which are required to balance their budgets annually – could do it then so could the federal government.
One problem is that the states don’t really balance their budgets. All have separate operating and capital budgets and only the operating budget is required to be balanced. By contrast, the federal budget lumps together operating and capital expenses, such as roads and buildings that will last for decades. Moreover, the states are notorious for using gimmicks to give the appearance of budget balance even though they run deficits.

Jul 17, 2011

TIme Out

I've been in Vacation Mode since Thursday.  I plan on being back around the 25th.

Shortly after that, I'll be getting my first bionic hip.  If I'm up to it, and the hospital allows it, I'll start posting again right after surgery - as soon as I can anyway.

See ya'll on the other side.

Jul 14, 2011

Some Not So Revoltin' Developments?

Recent developments in the "debate" over raising the debt ceiling seem to confirm that the Repubs are really struggling with some serious structural problems. I think it's possible that Obama has pulled off an amazing thing, even if all he did was to let the Repubs dance at Center Stage long enough for people to see how crass and cynical they've become.

I doubt any of the Repubs changed their minds about the debt ceiling. In fact, I doubt most Repubs have any real objection to raising the limit at all, even tho' an awful lot of people have to have been worrying about the deficits and the debt for a good long while. If anything's actually changed, it's just that McConnell and Boehner and Cantor have taken such a public beating, they have to put up some bullshit strategy that makes them look a little less stupid and lets them believe for a while that they can get back out in front of their own party before it evaporates. Right now, this looks like nothing less than a complete breakdown. And it's prob'ly because the Repub Leadership got an attitude adjustment from the mega-donors who aren't gonna sit by and let the PseudoCons fuck up what's left of a good thing. (Obama's fund-raising numbers indicate something significant is happening, so maybe he's managed to strip off some of the big money providers - of course we won't find much info on that because the Citizens United thing means most of the money can stay incognito)

So now (for once) Obama doesn't have to beat the Repubs, because the Repubs are beating the Repubs. I think the indicator to watch is Michelle Bachmann's campaign. She's the Queen of the PseudoCons; the leader of the Radical Rowdies. We'll hafta wait and see what DumFux News comes up with, but so far, they've seemed reluctant to promote her in a big way. And it's possible that Fox has to divert too much energy to defending itself because of the whole Rupertgate thing, and so they'll be less of a factor. Dunno, but I'll bet the big donors are slappin' Roger Ailes around now too. It promises to get funner and funner.

Finally, here's a question: Why has the DNC/Obama Campaign quietly released this little commercial now? First, it's always a good idea to hit 'em with the hard sell right after some good news. But mainly, if I'm right in thinking a bunch of the big donors are shifting away from the Repubs, and if the Dems wanna re-assert their brand as "The Party of the Little Guys" in order to keep us from recognizing them as the same kind of Coin-Operated Politicos as anybody else, then they need something to demonstrate that they have "huge numbers of regular folk, sending in their nickels and dimes".

Jul 12, 2011

Michelle And The Debt Ceiling

Michelle Bachmann says she has a titanium spine.  Yeah - that and a reinforced concrete skull.

btw: Bill O'Reilly snickers at a Republican populist in this clip. Did anybody else just feel the earth shift on its axis?

Isn't It Interesting?

The biggest deal in the last 20 years of Rupert Murdoch's media empire (his attempt to buy BskyB in the UK) is stalled and may be dead because Murdoch has to prop up the share value of News Corp by accelerating his buy-back program - and of course the reason he has a stock price problem is because he had to shut down his single most profitable daily newspaper in his UK operation because of his suddenly revealed trouble concerning illegal wiretapping (and maybe fraud and obstruction and official bribery too) and gosh - not a single word of any of that is to be found anywhere on foxnews.com or Fox Business or Fox Nation; and there's been no ink all in The Wall Street Journal.

A multi-billion dollar deal that may go in the tank, and a major scandal involving one of the biggest media players in the world - and WSJ... uh...what?  They missed it?  It just slipped by unnoticed?

The good news is that maybe this finally rips the bandaid off and we wake up to what these assholes have been doing to us.

The bad news is that maybe this is how the real collapse starts.

Watch out for what happens in Italy in the next few months. (read this at The Agonist)

Tabloid Politics

Or maybe we could call it Pin-up Politicians; or Political Porn.  Whatever it is, it is not a development that I can call serious.

Here's a look at what Newsweek thinks is journalism.





 

My Dear Mr Boehner

For 2 years, and now especially during the big debate about whether or not to raise the Debt Ceiling, and what the US budget should look like, I've heard John Boehner say that his party just couldn't possibly abide imposing any kind of tax increase on the "job creators" in this country.  (I ranted in some detail yesterday on the "tax-cuts-equals-jobs" malarkey)

Question:  Exactly who are these job creators?  They've gotten practically nothing but tax breaks for the last ten fucking years, and we've seen a net job increase of a little over 17,000 per month for that whole period.  Seems to me they've gotten about everything they've wanted - so where's the payoff?  What the fuck are they waiting for?

No wait; I keep forgetting that Boehner doesn't say that crap thinking he'll persuade me and change my mind.  He says that because when the Rubes hear anything that hints at contradicting what they're being spoon fed by DumFux News, they tend to get a little nervous; so guys like Boehner need to rush around puttin' that big Republican cock back in their mouths to calm 'em down.

Jul 11, 2011

Made In China

(Anticipating the standard response to this revoltin' development): Let's be sure we figure out a way to make "the unions" out to be the bad guys here. We have to remember that no matter what happens; if it's bad and it's something the "Libruls" don't like, then we need to Blame America First. And if it's bad and it's something the PseudoCons don't like, then we Blame Americans.

Whatever it is, we must never be allowed to look past our own biases to see a problem resulting from a policy or a law or a regulation or the lack of regulation that was put in place at least at the behest of a lobbying effort - if not something that was bought and paid for outright as the result of the decisions of some sliver-spoon fuck in the executive suite of some very large and very wealthy corporation.

We must be kept distracted. While we're busy bickering on a level that's really nothing more than Red Team vs Blue Team, these Dons of Corporatopia are free to continue bleeding us dry.