Today's Tweet

Does it look bad? Feels pretty bad - is it bad?

"I know it looks bad and things seem a bit out of control, but you have to understand, it was the only way to get the tax cut, and the judicial appointments, I can't even tell you how important that is, or was, I mean, look at us, does anything matter anymore?" pic.twitter.com/9eKbj0IfWc

— Radio Justice 📻🎙 (@justiceputnam) April 20, 2019

Falsifying The Null Hypothesis

Vox:

...Volume 2 is all about the possibility that President Trump engaged in the criminal act of obstruction of justice during the investigation about his campaign.

The maneuver that Mueller uses in Volume 2 is extraordinary. It’s a social scientist‘s delight and should be used as a case example in research methods classes. Special counsel Mueller uses the logic and procedure of the scientific method to arrive at his conclusion in his investigation about the possibility of obstruction of justice. This is unusual because it is not the typical route that an attorney would use in building a case or preparing an investigatory report. In short, rather than providing evidence to support a claim of obstruction, Mueller essentially sets out to falsify a null hypothesis that obstruction did not occur.

The double-negative language that describes this procedure can be confusing. Here’s how it works. The scientific method that all scientists, natural or social, use involves a process called falsification. The method was popularized by a philosopher named Karl Popper, who in the mid 20th century wrote a book called The Logic of Scientific Discovery. Popper argues that in science it is not possible to “prove” anything; rather, scientists seek to theorize all the possible explanations for a phenomenon, and then seek evidence to disprove as many of those explanations as possible.

It’s a process of elimination. And this is exactly what Mueller does in his report. Mueller does not set out to prove that the president engaged in obstruction of justice; rather, Mueller recognizes that he is bound by the Attorney General’s interpretation of the law, which says the sitting president cannot be charged with a crime. In light of this legal interpretation, it would be futile for Mueller to build a case and demonstrate that the president should be charged with the crime of obstruction. So Mueller does something incredibly clever: He falsifies all of the alternative explanations.

In his report, special counsel Mueller walks through at least 10 specific instances in which the president or his staff may have engaged in obstruction of justice. Because his intent is not to frame the president or prove his wrongdoing, Mueller lays out all the possible explanations for what the president and his allies did. Then, one by one, Mueller provides the evidence showing that each of Trump’s associates who may have aided in obstructing justice in fact did not do so. The report exonerates these actors on this charge.

- but -

The report does not exonerate the president. But it goes much further than that. The report falsifies all of the possible reasons the president should be exonerated, and shows each one of these claims to be false.

Not that anybody is going to be convinced on this - we Americans are not famous for our canny ability to grasp nuance.

And when it comes to our willingness to accept the science of it all - well, uhh - Evolution, Flat Earth, Angels, Climate Change, UFOs, Bigfoot, Elvis - we're a big steaming pile of Personal Incredulity Fallacies.

He's Not Legit

Paul Waldman, WaPo - (highlights):

• Vladimir Putin very much wanted Trump to become president of the United States, and undertook a comprehensive campaign to make sure it happened. 
• Trump, his family and his campaign may not have set up a criminal conspiracy to cooperate with Russia, but they were eager to accept the help. 
• The president’s attempts to obstruct justice were comprehensive and far-reaching.
• Everyone around the president, and the president himself, acted as though they had something to hide on Russia.
• Trump regularly instructs aides to lie to the public.
• Nearly everything Trump called “fake news” turned out to be true.
• Trump has no concern about whether his actions are illegal or unethical. 

There were times when those around him, struck by a sudden attack of conscience or pushed beyond even their rather flexible limits, decide to push back - "The President's efforts to influence the investigation were mostly unsuccessful, but that is largely because the persons who surrounded the President declined to carry out orders or accede to his requests." - but it leaves little doubt about who the president is and what kind of administration he is running.

This is a president who is deeply, profoundly corrupt in every sense of the word. While we can argue about what should be done about the facts laid out in the Mueller report, that is no longer in doubt.

The point now is to emphasize what seems very clear: 

45*'s "presidency" 

is not legitimate.

Too fuckin' stoopid to know when he's breaking the law, and too goddamned crooked to care. In this, he is the perfect reflection of the rubes who make up the GOP base.

Today's Today

Earth Day

(paraphrasing Albert Schweitzer)
We have lost the capacity to foresee and to forestall. 

Humankind will end, destroying ourselves by destroying our home.

Rachel Carson:

Silent Spring exerpt - as performed by Kaiulani Lee:

In case you wanna hear the whole thing (11 hours - and worth it):

Today's Pix

Don't let it slip away

Click it

It's The Hypocrisy, Stupid

A Few Points On The Mueller Report

The main theme from here on in is that 45*'s "presidency" is not legitimate.

From Karen Piper:

ppg 392-393

In sum, contrary to the position taken by the President's counsel, we concluded that, in
light of the Supreme Court precedent governing separation-of-powers issues, we had a valid basis for investigating the conduct at issue in this report. In our view, the application of the obstruction statutes would not impermissibly burden the President's performance of his Article II function to supervise prosecutorial conduct or to remove inferior law-enforcement officers. And the protection of the criminal justice system from corrupt acts by any person?including the President accords with the fundamental principle of our government that no person in this country is so high that he is above the law.
(United States v. Lee, 106 U.S. 196, 220 (1882); see also Clinton v. Jones, 520 U.S. at 697; United States v. Nixon, supra.)

Happy Now?

Fortune Magazine: 

The United States is the unhappiest it’s ever been.

The 2019 World Happiness Report says that Finland remains the happiest country on Earth for the second year in the row, while the U.S. drops to No. 19, its worst ranking ever (it was No. 18 in 2018 and No. 14 in 2017).

- and -

Researchers with the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network have been creating the annual happiness report since 2012, based on global data from Gallup. Countries’ happiness scores are determined by six main variables on a three-year average:
GDP per capita

• Healthy life expectancy at birth
• Social support from friends and family
• Freedom to make life choices
• Generosity in the form of donations to charity
• Perceptions of government corruption

1. Finland (7.769)
2. Denmark (7.600)
3. Norway (7.554)
4. Iceland (7.494)
5. Netherlands (7.488)
6. Switzerland (7.480)
7. Sweden (7.343)
8. New Zealand (7.307)
9. Canada (7.278)
10. Austria (7.246)
11. Australia (7.228)
12. Costa Rica (7.167)
13. Israel (7.139)
14. Luxembourg (7.090)
15. United Kingdom (7.054)
16. Ireland (7.021)
17. Germany (6.985)
18. Belgium (6.923)
19. United States (6.892)
20. Czech Republic (6.852)

"Conservatives" and the Plutocrats in Washington are always yelling about how miserable it is to live under the horribleness of "socialism", but the countries they love to shit on are right there at the top of the list of Happiest Places To Live, while we're losing ground.

And well down the list is the place those guys apparently want us to emulate - Russia at #68.

Today's Today

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Let's Get Recreational

...up in this bitch.

funny or die, Matt Dillon