Today's Term

Systemic Causation.

Systemic causation is familiar. Smoking is a systemic cause of lung cancer. HIV is a systemic cause of AIDS. Working in coal mines is a systemic cause of black lung disease. Driving while drunk is a systemic cause of auto accidents. Sex without contraception is a systemic cause of unwanted pregnancies.

There is a difference between systemic and direct causation. Punching someone in the nose is direct causation. Throwing a rock through a window is direct causation. Picking up a glass of water and taking a drink is direct causation. Slicing bread is direct causation. Stealing your wallet is direct causation. Any application of force to something or someone that always produces an immediate change to that thing or person is direct causation.

When causation is direct, the word cause is unproblematic.

Systemic causation, because it is less obvious, is more important to understand.

Go read the piece from George Lakoff right now.

On Climate Change

If you ask me about AGW and Climate Change, my honest answer is that I really don't know.  ie: I don't have the direct first-hand knowledge I need to to be "absolutely sure" of it.

But here's the deal - I'm gonna take the word of Climatologists who are educated and experienced way the fuck before I listen to some coin-operated politician on the subject.

The scientist has to exceed a Certainty Threshold (Confidence Interval) of 95% required by most Peer-Review Processes before his findings are accepted as the prevailing thesis.

The politician has to get 50% plus 1.

So, if your broker came to you saying he had 2 opportunities for you, would you go for the one with a 50.01% shot at working out, or do ya think ya might wanna go with the one at 95%?

C'mon, "conservatives" - you're supposed to be the ones who take a cold, clear-eyed look at this stuff.  What the fuck're you doin'?

Wait - What?

So if it shows up in USA Today (with a feeder from the front page, no less), then it's like official? Like it's obvious and everybody's known about it all along?  Like McPaper hasn't ever helped the "conservative" dipwads peddle bullshit about how "the jury's still out on AGW", and how "smart people can disagree about the causes"?

Humans have already changed Earth's atmosphere by releasing vast amounts of carbon dioxide and similar heat-trapping gases from power plants, vehicles and other sources, scientists say. The resulting rise in air and sea-surface temperatures, along with melting glaciers and land ice, will push up sea levels globally by more than one-and-a-half feet by 2100.

AGW And Climate Change

Mt Everest then and now:

And a Ted talk:



Questions?

Water

It won't be long now.  Of all the shitty things George Zimmerman could've done, killing Trayvon Martin's about the shittiest there is.  Unfortunately, arguing the politics of that one act of race brutality will seem like a luxury we can't afford as we're forced to confront the realities of gullibility and willful ignorance regarding issues of our environment.



Two things stand out for me.  First is the fight over water rights - with the Tourism Lobby winning out over the rice farmers (you know - those inconsequential goobers who don't really do anything except grow the fucking food).

And second is the lady who says she's worried that the water supply problems will make people less likely to come to her little town to live, and that'll push down on her property value.

Gosh - maybe public policy might actually have a real effect on real people.  Maybe all them librul eggheads up there at that college knew sumthin' after all.

Maybe guys like me shouldn't say things like, "you voted yourselves into this mess, ya stoopid fuckin' rubes - why should it be up to anybody else to help get you out of it now?"  I'm really trying to be charitable here, but damn.

Bamboozled - Again

NASA has come out with a new study that shoots holes in the last of the deniers' arguments  - that Solar Activity is the main cause of Global Warming.

Take a look at what's up at the NASA website:

Hansen's team concluded that Earth has absorbed more than half a watt more solar energy per square meter than it let off throughout the six year study period. The calculated value of the imbalance (0.58 watts of excess energy per square meter) is more than twice as much as the reduction in the amount of solar energy supplied to the planet between maximum and minimum solar activity (0.25 watts per square meter).

"The fact that we still see a positive imbalance despite the prolonged solar minimum isn't a surprise given what we've learned about the climate system, but it's worth noting because this provides unequivocal evidence that the sun is not the dominant driver of global warming," Hansen said.

Add this to a growing list of issues about which "Libruls" were right and "Conservatives" have been lying to us.

Corporate Taxes
Climate Change

We Are So Fucked

A rosy outlook from BBC's Richard Black:

"The findings are shocking," said Alex Rogers, IPSO's scientific director and professor of conservation biology at Oxford University.

"As we considered the cumulative effect of what humankind does to the oceans, the implications became far worse than we had individually realised.

"We've sat in one forum and spoken to each other about what we're seeing, and we've ended up with a picture showing that almost right across the board we're seeing changes that are happening faster than we'd thought, or in ways that we didn't expect to see for hundreds of years."

It's not about "saving the planet".  The planet was just fine before we showed up, and it'll be just fine long after we're gone.  This is about self-preservation, and making our own living conditions as pleasant as possible.  It's about not making it any harder than it has to be to survive; and to thrive; and to enjoy our lives.

The Drought

Back in April, Gov Rick Perry called for Texans to pray because the drought was kinda bad.  Here's what it's been like since then:
Drought Map

Something else I wonder about: Perry has been playing the Labor Arbitrage game, and he's done a good bit of bragging about the influx of people because there're so many new jobs in Texas.  First, Texas leads the US in minimum-wage jobs. Second, the majority of new jobs in Texas are minimum wage or minimum plus 20% jobs.  Third, a big increase in population only puts a greater strain on things like infrastructure and resources like clean water.

Just sayin'.

Climate Change Denial Crock Of The Week