Showing posts with label Amanda's Mild Takes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Amanda's Mild Takes. Show all posts
Jun 2, 2026
May 29, 2026
Amanda's Friday
Almost half of us aren't making enough to cover our basic needs.
Dr Maslow, please report to the National Day Room. Dr Maslow - to the day room ASAP.
May 28, 2026
May 19, 2026
Amanda Tuesday
Here's that story on inflation:
- The recent surge in inflation is likely to get worse over the next several months, according to a survey Friday from the nation's top economists.
- Consumer price inflation is projected to hit 6% for the second quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters, compared with 2.7% in the prior survey.
- The survey follows a slew of inflation data showing that prices paid both at the consumer and wholesale levels hit multiyear highs in April.
The recent surge in inflation is likely to get worse over the next several months, according to a survey Friday from the nation's top economists.
Consumer price inflation is projected to hit 6% for the second quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters, a blue-ribbon group that is polled each quarter by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
In the most recent forecast three months ago, the panel put the expected consumer price index gain at just 2.7%. However, that was just before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks against Iran, hostilities that have sent energy prices soaring while pushing inflation data well past the 2% mark the Fed targets.
For the full year, the panel put the CPI rate at 3.5% for the all-items number and 2.9% for core, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. That's up from estimates of 2.6% for both in the prior survey.
Elevated inflation levels are expected to persist into the third quarter, with headline CPI projected at 3% and core at 2.9%. Both levels are expected to ease by the end of the year, with the fourth quarter at 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively.
Still, the panel doesn't see the Fed hitting its goal well into the future. The 10-year projected annual average is at 2.4%, which the survey notes would be equivalent to 2.22% by the Fed's preferred standard, the personal consumption expenditures price index, a Commerce Department measure.
The PCE inflation rates also are expected to hold well above the Fed's comfort zone, though at not as high a level as the consumer price index, a Bureau of Labor Statistics compilation.
Headline PCE inflation is projected at 4.5% for the second quarter with core at 3.4%, compared with prior estimates of 2.7%.
The survey follows a slew of inflation data showing that prices paid both at the consumer and wholesale levels hit multiyear highs in April. Headline CPI showed inflation at a 3.8% rate, the highest in nearly three years, while the producer price annual inflation rate of 6% was the peak since December 2022.
All of the data comes as Kevin Warsh is set to assume the role of Fed chair. Though Warsh has indicated he would like to see lower interest rates, that is going to be difficult to accomplish with inflation data so high and the general sentiment among his fellow policymakers to keep rates steady with an open mind toward possible rate hikes if inflation worsens.
Elsewhere in the survey, forecasters lowered their outlook for growth in coming quarters. They expect gross domestic product to rise at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter and 2.2% for the full year, the latter down 0.3 percentage point from the prior estimate. Growth is projected to slow further to 1.9% in 2027 before bouncing back above 2% in subsequent years.
The unemployment rate this year is expected to settle around 4.5%, or 0.2 percentage point higher than the current level.
Consumer price inflation is projected to hit 6% for the second quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters, a blue-ribbon group that is polled each quarter by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
In the most recent forecast three months ago, the panel put the expected consumer price index gain at just 2.7%. However, that was just before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks against Iran, hostilities that have sent energy prices soaring while pushing inflation data well past the 2% mark the Fed targets.
For the full year, the panel put the CPI rate at 3.5% for the all-items number and 2.9% for core, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. That's up from estimates of 2.6% for both in the prior survey.
Elevated inflation levels are expected to persist into the third quarter, with headline CPI projected at 3% and core at 2.9%. Both levels are expected to ease by the end of the year, with the fourth quarter at 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively.
Still, the panel doesn't see the Fed hitting its goal well into the future. The 10-year projected annual average is at 2.4%, which the survey notes would be equivalent to 2.22% by the Fed's preferred standard, the personal consumption expenditures price index, a Commerce Department measure.
The PCE inflation rates also are expected to hold well above the Fed's comfort zone, though at not as high a level as the consumer price index, a Bureau of Labor Statistics compilation.
Headline PCE inflation is projected at 4.5% for the second quarter with core at 3.4%, compared with prior estimates of 2.7%.
The survey follows a slew of inflation data showing that prices paid both at the consumer and wholesale levels hit multiyear highs in April. Headline CPI showed inflation at a 3.8% rate, the highest in nearly three years, while the producer price annual inflation rate of 6% was the peak since December 2022.
All of the data comes as Kevin Warsh is set to assume the role of Fed chair. Though Warsh has indicated he would like to see lower interest rates, that is going to be difficult to accomplish with inflation data so high and the general sentiment among his fellow policymakers to keep rates steady with an open mind toward possible rate hikes if inflation worsens.
Elsewhere in the survey, forecasters lowered their outlook for growth in coming quarters. They expect gross domestic product to rise at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter and 2.2% for the full year, the latter down 0.3 percentage point from the prior estimate. Growth is projected to slow further to 1.9% in 2027 before bouncing back above 2% in subsequent years.
The unemployment rate this year is expected to settle around 4.5%, or 0.2 percentage point higher than the current level.
May 15, 2026
May 12, 2026
May 1, 2026
Apr 21, 2026
Apr 17, 2026
Apr 10, 2026
Apr 7, 2026
Apr 3, 2026
Mar 13, 2026
Mar 12, 2026
Feb 27, 2026
Feb 24, 2026
Feb 20, 2026
Feb 18, 2026
Feb 15, 2026
Feb 12, 2026
Today's Amanda
Dumbass Mayo-Americans (MAGA rubes) have to start understanding that their continuing support of Trump's Epstein Class buddies and their fucked up policies are costing them more than the alternative. ie: putting people in charge who are a bit more honest and a lot more competent at this whole government thing.
A good place for them to start is getting their tiny brains around the fact that a tariff is a tax - an extra tax - that they pay every time they buy the gas and the groceries and stuff at the hardware store that Trump told them was going to cost them less.
It's costing all of us more. Companies have done some very clever, very sneaky things to make it look like it's not as bad as it really is. There's been a massive move towards shrinkflation. Anybody with two brain cells they can rub together has to notice that we're all paying more and getting less.
And a little side-effect? Trump is figuring out ways to syphon that money into his own pocket. I know - everybody's really surprised by that one, right?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)