It'll get better after it gets a whole lot worse. We've prob'ly got another year or two of what could be some really bad shit.
The battlefield is still not about missiles and bombs.
Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts
May 27, 2026
But Wait There's More
As Americans confront a surge in prices at the pump, another inflation wave is headed for the grocery store.
The hit to US household finances from higher grocery bills is set to intensify just ahead of the November midterm elections, amplifying affordability as a defining issue. And to a greater extent than the surge in gas prices, the slower-moving food shock will be difficult to reverse quickly because the size of autumn harvests is determined by planting decisions made in the spring.
“It’s going to be a challenging year,” said Ricky Volpe, an agribusiness professor at California Polytechnic State University who previously worked at the US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service. “Food is going to become less affordable, and consumers should be prepared for it.”
The latest USDA food price outlook, published Friday, projected a 3.2% advance in grocery prices this year, while Volpe said he expects inflation more on the order of 4% to 4.5%.
James Giese of Madison, Wisconsin said he lives on his own but is making adjustments with rising grocery prices like cutting back on prepared foods and meat. Giese, 62, is even trying to grow potatoes in his backyard to supplement his food budget.
“I’m very concerned,” he said. “I’m probably considered middle-income, but it’s starting to pinch.”
Outsize price increases so far in 2026 have reflected a mix of bad luck, trade policy and slower-moving pressures linked to climate change. The weather in particular has not been kind to American farmers, who have endured outbursts of record-breaking heat, historic cold, ping-pong size hail and wildfires.
The US saw its warmest-ever start to the year, with temperatures running about 6F (3C) above average through the end of April, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information. The early heat prompted some domestic crops to begin blossoming weeks ahead of schedule instead of remaining dormant throughout the winter, leaving them exposed to subsequent frosts, according to Brad Rippey, a USDA meteorologist.
Beef prices, among the most politically sensitive in the US, rose to a record in April thanks to the smallest cattle herd in 75 years, squeezed by drought and high production costs.
Tomato prices, meanwhile, surged 33% over the last two months after two winter storms brought widespread damage during the peak of the growing season in Florida — while shipments from Mexico were declining following the Trump administration’s imposition of duties on imports.
Heat and drought in the western and central US spell more pressures to come. California accounts for almost half of annual US vegetable and three-quarters of fruit and nut cash receipts, and diminished snowpack in the Sierra Nevada this year — to just 23% of typical levels as of mid-April — has raised concerns about irrigation supplies.
Drought has also spread across the nation’s breadbasket, where staple wheat crops that are typically used to make all-purpose flour or pasta have withered for lack of rain. As of May 19, 70% of US winter wheat production was in areas of drought, along with 25% of corn production, according to the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
And forecasters now say an El Niño weather pattern is likely to emerge by August, with rising odds of an unusually powerful event that will persist into 2027 and push global average temperatures higher. El Niño can often steer extra rain to California, but it’s also been known to fuel drought outside the US in major growing areas for rice, coffee, cocoa and more.
Then there’s the war, which has brought a massive shock to global fertilizer markets due to the Middle East’s role as a major supplier of inputs.
Prices of fertilizer are up 20% since the war began, according to a Green Markets index for North America. That will likely mean higher prices come harvest time, and if farmers decide to scale back applications, that would also leave crops less able to withstand heat, drought or flooding.
The higher cost of fuel itself will also find its way into prices on store shelves as farmers and carriers pay up for diesel to power tractors and trucks, and petroleum-based plastic packaging becomes more expensive.
Major grocery chains have been trying to hold the line on pricing. Kroger Co.’s chief executive officer said it’s planning a price-cutting push to compete more fiercely with Walmart Inc., which has expanded its efforts to keep prices low over the last year.
Consumers are already worn out because prices have continued to climb even though the rate of food inflation has come down, said Andrew Harig, a vice president with the trade group FMI, the Food Industry Association.
At the same time, household debt is rising, the personal saving rate is falling, and real average hourly earnings fell in the 12 months through April for the first time in three years. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York published data Wednesday indicating a “meaningful” increase in measures of food insecurity between October 2025 and February 2026.
“Lots of people, I think, still look at their pre-Covid grocery bill in 2019, early 2020 and say, ‘Wow, I’m paying significantly more,’” Harig said. “And so they’re feeling that stretch.”
May 21, 2026
Inflation
Groceries just had the biggest price hike in years. It’s about to get even worse, experts warn
(NEXSTAR) – Federal inflation data confirms what you may have been feeling already: Groceries are getting more expensive. Unfortunately, things may be about to get a whole lot worse, economists are warning.
The price of groceries rose 2.9% in April compared to the same month a year earlier, according to government figures released in May. That was the highest year-over-year inflation rate for the category since August 2023.
When compared to the same time last year, fruits and vegetables have seen some of the biggest price hikes. Tomatoes are 40% more expensive now than they were this time last year. Bad growing weather, tariffs, and rising fuel prices have all contributed to the huge change in tomato prices, reports the New York Times.
Coffee, another imported product, is 19% more expensive than it was last spring.
You’re also likely seeing inflated prices at the butcher counter. Meat is up 9% overall, but beef has grown even more expensive. Ground beef is about 15% pricier, beef roasts are 18% more, and steak is up 16%.
What’s contributing to the price spikes? Fuel prices have soared while the Iran war prevents cargo ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for global oil supplies. Diesel fuel powers fishing boats, tractors and the trucks that ship 83% of U.S. agricultural products.
At least 25 Trader Joe’s stores expected to open this year: Here’s where
Just as you’re paying more at the pump, so are truckers who transport goods all around the country. Some vendors and suppliers are adding fuel surcharges to make up for the increased cost of transporting and delivering their goods.
Weather is also to blame in some cases. Dry weather in the West is making things harder for cattle ranchers, therefore driving up beef prices. Global drought is affecting coffee production.
Bad news may soon get worse, experts warn. The full impact of rising energy costs on food likely has not hit retail grocery prices yet in the U.S., according to Purdue University economists Ken Foster and Bernhard Dalheimer. Higher costs to produce, process, store, and transport food can take three to six months to show up on supermarket shelves, where prices typically fall slowly once increased, they said.
“Most of what we’re seeing now in the food price chain probably predates the conflict,” Foster, a professor of agricultural economics, said. “We’re cautiously waiting to see what the June numbers and the May numbers might show as they come out in terms of … the extent to which energy shocks in the Strait of Hormuz and shipping blockades and so forth are going to impact food prices.”
“The big story right now is oil, the next story is food,” economist Justin Wolfers agreed in an interview with MS Now.
“You see fuel prices rise, that’s the rock hitting the pond. And then the ripples are that jet fuel prices rise, and air fuel prices rise, and then the price of trucking your groceries to the grocery store rises. That’s the full set of ripples out of this,” Wolfers explained in another segment on the network.
If fuel prices remain high, we could see more issues “seep down the supply chain,” Foster said. Fertilizer could be more expensive, for example, since about 30% of the world’s supply of fertilizer moves through the Strait. That would make growing food more expensive for farmers, and those costs would eventually get passed on to the consumer.
If you’re looking for a silver lining in these tough economic times, check out the egg aisle. Eggs are 39% cheaper than they were this time last year, thanks to some normalization following last year’s avian flu crisis.
May 19, 2026
Amanda Tuesday
Here's that story on inflation:
- The recent surge in inflation is likely to get worse over the next several months, according to a survey Friday from the nation's top economists.
- Consumer price inflation is projected to hit 6% for the second quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters, compared with 2.7% in the prior survey.
- The survey follows a slew of inflation data showing that prices paid both at the consumer and wholesale levels hit multiyear highs in April.
The recent surge in inflation is likely to get worse over the next several months, according to a survey Friday from the nation's top economists.
Consumer price inflation is projected to hit 6% for the second quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters, a blue-ribbon group that is polled each quarter by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
In the most recent forecast three months ago, the panel put the expected consumer price index gain at just 2.7%. However, that was just before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks against Iran, hostilities that have sent energy prices soaring while pushing inflation data well past the 2% mark the Fed targets.
For the full year, the panel put the CPI rate at 3.5% for the all-items number and 2.9% for core, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. That's up from estimates of 2.6% for both in the prior survey.
Elevated inflation levels are expected to persist into the third quarter, with headline CPI projected at 3% and core at 2.9%. Both levels are expected to ease by the end of the year, with the fourth quarter at 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively.
Still, the panel doesn't see the Fed hitting its goal well into the future. The 10-year projected annual average is at 2.4%, which the survey notes would be equivalent to 2.22% by the Fed's preferred standard, the personal consumption expenditures price index, a Commerce Department measure.
The PCE inflation rates also are expected to hold well above the Fed's comfort zone, though at not as high a level as the consumer price index, a Bureau of Labor Statistics compilation.
Headline PCE inflation is projected at 4.5% for the second quarter with core at 3.4%, compared with prior estimates of 2.7%.
The survey follows a slew of inflation data showing that prices paid both at the consumer and wholesale levels hit multiyear highs in April. Headline CPI showed inflation at a 3.8% rate, the highest in nearly three years, while the producer price annual inflation rate of 6% was the peak since December 2022.
All of the data comes as Kevin Warsh is set to assume the role of Fed chair. Though Warsh has indicated he would like to see lower interest rates, that is going to be difficult to accomplish with inflation data so high and the general sentiment among his fellow policymakers to keep rates steady with an open mind toward possible rate hikes if inflation worsens.
Elsewhere in the survey, forecasters lowered their outlook for growth in coming quarters. They expect gross domestic product to rise at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter and 2.2% for the full year, the latter down 0.3 percentage point from the prior estimate. Growth is projected to slow further to 1.9% in 2027 before bouncing back above 2% in subsequent years.
The unemployment rate this year is expected to settle around 4.5%, or 0.2 percentage point higher than the current level.
Consumer price inflation is projected to hit 6% for the second quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters, a blue-ribbon group that is polled each quarter by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
In the most recent forecast three months ago, the panel put the expected consumer price index gain at just 2.7%. However, that was just before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks against Iran, hostilities that have sent energy prices soaring while pushing inflation data well past the 2% mark the Fed targets.
For the full year, the panel put the CPI rate at 3.5% for the all-items number and 2.9% for core, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. That's up from estimates of 2.6% for both in the prior survey.
Elevated inflation levels are expected to persist into the third quarter, with headline CPI projected at 3% and core at 2.9%. Both levels are expected to ease by the end of the year, with the fourth quarter at 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively.
Still, the panel doesn't see the Fed hitting its goal well into the future. The 10-year projected annual average is at 2.4%, which the survey notes would be equivalent to 2.22% by the Fed's preferred standard, the personal consumption expenditures price index, a Commerce Department measure.
The PCE inflation rates also are expected to hold well above the Fed's comfort zone, though at not as high a level as the consumer price index, a Bureau of Labor Statistics compilation.
Headline PCE inflation is projected at 4.5% for the second quarter with core at 3.4%, compared with prior estimates of 2.7%.
The survey follows a slew of inflation data showing that prices paid both at the consumer and wholesale levels hit multiyear highs in April. Headline CPI showed inflation at a 3.8% rate, the highest in nearly three years, while the producer price annual inflation rate of 6% was the peak since December 2022.
All of the data comes as Kevin Warsh is set to assume the role of Fed chair. Though Warsh has indicated he would like to see lower interest rates, that is going to be difficult to accomplish with inflation data so high and the general sentiment among his fellow policymakers to keep rates steady with an open mind toward possible rate hikes if inflation worsens.
Elsewhere in the survey, forecasters lowered their outlook for growth in coming quarters. They expect gross domestic product to rise at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter and 2.2% for the full year, the latter down 0.3 percentage point from the prior estimate. Growth is projected to slow further to 1.9% in 2027 before bouncing back above 2% in subsequent years.
The unemployment rate this year is expected to settle around 4.5%, or 0.2 percentage point higher than the current level.
Apr 16, 2026
The Tyranny Of Percentages
Yay for that. This is a good thing.
Problem:
The cost of gas, and groceries, and other goods is increasing (inflation is up around 3.3% now), and that means we're going to pay more in sales taxes.
That's kinda how percentage works.
At a total Sales Tax Rate of 6% (a low-ish average nationwide), my usual $110 in groceries costs $116.60.
Inflation pushes the cost of my groceries to $113.63, which is $120.45 with tax.
If that new total of $116.60 is what I spend every 5 or 6 days, then the $6.40 in extra tax means I'll spend almost $390.00 more this year than I did last year, and - obviously - that eliminates any gain in my tax refund, and equates to a hit on my $65,000 average income of almost a full percent.
So a "tax cut", (minus inflation, minus tariffs) means my annual income goes down - and that's just looking at the food that I can't not buy. Wanna talk about clothing? Wanna talk about having a child or two? How 'bout maintenance on your car and your house?
Meanwhile, people making over the magic threshold of $400,000 will likely not see any discernible change at all.
And don't get me started on Parasite Billionaires.
Mar 29, 2026
Feb 20, 2026
Affordability
The personal-consumption expenditures price index increased by 0.4% in December
Key inflation metrics tracked by the Federal Reserve accelerated at the end of last year, underscoring why many Fed officials have turned cautious about supporting further interest-rate cuts.
The personal-consumption expenditures price index increased by 0.4% in December, after rising by 0.2% in November, the Commerce Department said Friday.
That lifted the 12-month PCE inflation rate to 2.9%, up from 2.8% in November. Core PCE inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—ticked up to 3% in the 12 months through December, from 2.8% a month earlier.
The numbers are roughly aligned with forecasts from analysts, who can use other inflation metrics to forecast PCE inflation with great accuracy. The report also is more lagged than usual, because last fall’s government shutdown has caused cascading delays in the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s publication calendar.
But the figures point to one reason many Fed officials have turned hesitant about easing their policy stance further despite January’s decline in the consumer-price index, now at 2.4%. PCE inflation, not the CPI, is the metric against which the Fed gauges progress toward its 2% inflation target, and it has consistently hovered above that target for most of half a decade.
Much of the time, PCE inflation tends to run cooler than CPI inflation, but for now, the pattern has reversed. That is in large part because housing inflation, which has cooled steadily, plays a bigger part in the CPI calculation than in the PCE calculation, UBS economist Alan Detmeister has observed.
Minutes from the Fed’s January meeting published Wednesday showed that a contingent of Fed officials thinks that at 3.5% to 3.75%, the Fed’s current rate target is near a neutral level that is no longer working to restrain economic growth and rising prices. At last month’s Fed meeting, the minutes showed, one set of officials urged the group to consider communicating that going forward, rate increases may be as much a possibility as further cuts.
The December PCE inflation numbers are unlikely to be very impactful for traders, who are largely already focused on what the January PCE inflation reading will show when released on March 13. That will be the latest PCE data the Fed will have in hand at its next policy meeting, March 17-18.
Using numbers available from the January CPI report, many economists are estimating that the January PCE data will show 12-month core inflation steady at 3% or even increasing to 3.1%.
The report also showed that Americans’ personal income rose by 0.3% in December, while their consumer spending increased by 0.4%.
Feb 12, 2026
Today's Amanda
Dumbass Mayo-Americans (MAGA rubes) have to start understanding that their continuing support of Trump's Epstein Class buddies and their fucked up policies are costing them more than the alternative. ie: putting people in charge who are a bit more honest and a lot more competent at this whole government thing.
A good place for them to start is getting their tiny brains around the fact that a tariff is a tax - an extra tax - that they pay every time they buy the gas and the groceries and stuff at the hardware store that Trump told them was going to cost them less.
It's costing all of us more. Companies have done some very clever, very sneaky things to make it look like it's not as bad as it really is. There's been a massive move towards shrinkflation. Anybody with two brain cells they can rub together has to notice that we're all paying more and getting less.
And a little side-effect? Trump is figuring out ways to syphon that money into his own pocket. I know - everybody's really surprised by that one, right?
Sep 12, 2025
Today's Belle
Year Over Year Increase - 2024 vs 2025
Coffee 21.7%
Steaks 16.6%
Eggs 10.9%
Apples 9.6%
Canned Fruit 4.3%
Car Repair 15.0%
Jan 13, 2025
Sep 6, 2024
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