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COVID-19 Update

WaPo:

After peaking at more than 2,000 deaths daily in the spring, the number of new covid-19 fatalities in the United States steadily declined to below 500 per day in early July. The Trump administration has seized upon that statistic as a sign that it has successfully tackled the pandemic, even as the number of infections spikes. “When you look at the mortality rate, we’re seeing that our efforts here at the federal government have been working,” White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said at a news conference Monday. Asked at a different event that day about the rise in new cases, President Trump steered the conversation to the same subject: “Well, you know that we have one of the lowest mortality rates anywhere.”

The discrepancy between the trends for cases and deaths first appeared in June, at a time when cases had plateaued, and it generated a lot of discussion about why the two were diverging — some of it hopeful. Could the novel coronavirus be mutating to become less lethal? (Experts see no evidence of this.) Is everyone benefiting from time outdoors, including a bigger dose of vitamin D? (Again, no clear evidence.) Certainly, treatments for hospitalized patients have improved, but these advances remain incremental. (Dexamethasone, a steroid treatment, reduced mortality from 41 percent to 29 percent in patients on ventilators, one study found.) A more boring, yet likely, explanation is that during our long plateau, increased testing uncovered milder infections — enabling raw numbers of new cases to appear steady even as the true outbreak slowed, thanks to stay-at-home orders.

But the picture has now changed. There’s no more plateau: We have a major outbreak on our hands. Daily case numbers have surged mercilessly, to a record-breaking 65,000 this past week. True, given increased testing, these numbers are not directly comparable to the late-April figure of 35,000 cases in a day; back then, because of a shortfall in testing capacity, we were missing many more infections than we are now.

But test positivity rates are spiking, too. In Arizona, for instance, the figure increased from roughly 5 percent in early May to 20 percent in late June. At the same time, nationwide hospitalization numbers are approaching mid-April levels, and intensive care units are filling up in such states as Florida, Texas and Arizona. The combination of more testing, higher positivity and rising hospitalization is a grim one — a clear signal of extensive community transmission.

In short, the period that might have warranted a degree of optimism has vanished. Deaths have leaped in the past two weeks to an average of 700 daily — and there is no reason to think the rise will stop. The accelerating outbreak is only now showing up in the death numbers because deaths are a “lagging indicator”: It takes awhile from the time patients are infected, to when they are symptomatic and seek testing, to when they are admitted to a hospital. And once in the hospital, patients can experience protracted stays. The result is that deaths reflect viral transmission that occurred two to eight weeks earlier. (Hospital admissions are another lagging indicator, though they provide an earlier signal than deaths.)

Amid the sharp jump in cases, the demographics of the new infections have contributed to the wishful thinking: They have skewed younger. This trend is partly due to increased testing of people with mild or even no symptoms. But with test positivity rising, we know there is more going on. Young people are among those who flocked to bars when they reopened; they’re going back to work or hanging out with friends, and the virus is spreading.

It’s true that older adults are far more likely to die than younger adults — which is why Vice President Pence has said it’s “a good thing” that many new cases involve younger people. But the catch is that our populations are not neatly partitioned into low- and high-risk bubbles. Young people without symptoms can inadvertently transmit to people of every age, including family members, neighbors and co-workers. And what we are seeing in states like Florida is that infections among older people are proving to be yet another lagging indicator: New cases in adults over 65 in that state are belatedly on the rise, from roughly 300 per day in mid-June to more than 1,800 per day in mid-July.

Several states are reporting record highs for daily deaths (Florida had 156 Thursday), the upswing in daily deaths has begun nationally, and ICUs are filling — all this, as states’ responses remain slow and inadequate. Here in Gainesville, Fla., I can, if I wish, go to an indoor fitness class, get my nails done and eat inside at a restaurant. I could make the two-hour drive to Disney World and get in line for a ride (though I will do none of these things).

Modest policy changes, such as encouraging more mask wearing, are almost certainly insufficient to reverse the rapid growth in cases. And in Georgia, where more than 2,800 patients are currently hospitalized, the governor has gone so far as to forbid local mask mandates. With the case numbers we’re seeing, it’s whistling past the graveyard — nearly literally — to celebrate a temporarily low death rate. As the numbers of cases continue to rise, so will the preventable deaths of thousands more Americans.

Ed Note: we haven't (yet) seen the full fuckup resulting from Cult45's attempts to squelch the information regarding COVID-19. Any downtick in the numbers must be viewed with great skepticism, which is actually one of the real dangers of Daddy State fuckery - the gaslighting effects of their direct attacks on truth itself can make it impossible for regular folk to discern between fact and fiction.

106 days until 11-03-20

COVID-19 Update

60 days out:

213,366 dead Americans

By Election Day:

293,397 dead Americans

And we're about 60 days away from 1,000,000 dead worldwide

In Memorium

We lost a coupla heroes yesterday

CT Vivian  (July 30, 1924 – July 17, 2020)

CT Vivian was an American minister, author, and was a close friend and lieutenant of Martin Luther King Jr. during the Civil Rights Movement. Vivian continued to reside in Atlanta, Georgia, and founded the C. T. Vivian Leadership Institute, Inc. He was a member of the Alpha Phi Alpha fraternity.

President Barack Obama, speaking at Selma's Brown Chapel on the March, 2007, anniversary of the 1965 Selma to Montgomery marches, recognized Vivian in his opening remarks in the words of Martin L. King Jr. as "the greatest preacher to ever live."

August 2013

November 2010

John Lewis (February 21, 1940 – July 17, 2020)

America is a constant work in progress. What gives each new generation purpose is to take up the unfinished work of the last and carry it further - to speak out for what's right, to challenge an unjust status quo, and to imagine a better world.

John Lewis - one of the original Freedom Riders, chairman of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee, the youngest speaker at the March on Washington, leader of the march from Selma to Montgomery, Member of Congress representing the people of Georgia for 33 years - not only assumed that responsibility, he made it his life's work. He loved this country so much that he risked his life and his blood so that it might live up to its promise. And through the decades, he not only gave all of himself to the cause of freedom and justice, but inspired generations that followed to try to live up to his example.

Considering his enormous impact on the history of this country, what always struck those who met John was his gentleness and humility. Born into modest means in the heart of the Jim Crow South, he understood that he was just one of a long line of heroes in the struggle for racial justice. Early on, he embraced the principles of nonviolent resistance and civil disobedience as the means to bring about real change in this country, understanding that such tactics had the power not only to change laws, but to change hearts and minds as well.

In so many ways, John's life was exceptional. But he never believed that what he did was more than any citizen of this country might do. He believed that in all of us, there exists the capacity for great courage, a longing to do what's right, a willingness to love all people, and to extend to them their God-given rights to dignity and respect. And it's because he saw the best in all of us that he will continue, even in his passing, to serve as a beacon in that long journey towards a more perfect union.

I first met John when I was in law school, and I told him then that he was one of my heroes. Years later, when I was elected a U.S. Senator, I told him that I stood on his shoulders. When I was elected President of the United States, I hugged him on the inauguration stand before I was sworn in and told him I was only there because of the sacrifices he made. And through all those years, he never stopped providing wisdom and encouragement to me and Michelle and our family. We will miss him dearly.

It's fitting that the last time John and I shared a public forum was at a virtual town hall with a gathering of young activists who were helping to lead this summer's demonstrations in the wake of George Floyd's death. Afterwards, I spoke to him privately, and he could not have been prouder of their efforts - of a new generation standing up for freedom and equality, a new generation intent on voting and protecting the right to vote, a new generation running for political office. I told him that all those young people - of every race, from every background and gender and sexual orientation - they were his children. They had learned from his example, even if they didn't know it. They had understood through him what American citizenship requires, even if they had heard of his courage only through history books.

Not many of us get to live to see our own legacy play out in such a meaningful, remarkable way. John Lewis did. And thanks to him, we now all have our marching orders - to keep believing in the possibility of remaking this country we love until it lives up to its full promise.

Barack Obama

Today's Beau

Justin King - Beau Of The Fifth Column

We can always count on assholes like Stephen Miller and Ken (Kenny The Kooch) Cuccinelli to take a bad situation and make it worse.

About That Goya Dustup

HuffPo:

The perfect example of Cult45 using its position of power and privilege to put money in their pockets.

And the internet rides in:

COVID-19 Update

Another Red Letter day yesterday.

 Top 20 States

And the lyin' sack of shit is in the process of doing exactly what we figured he'd do. He's chosen to do nothing that helps us, so he has to pretend facts aren't facts - he'll just hide the numbers from us.

WaPo:

Disappearance of covid-19 data from CDC website spurs outcry

Governors join calls for delay of administration plan to shift control from the CDC as Trump administration pledges to make data available to the public

On the eve of a new coronavirus reporting system this week, data disappeared from a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website as hospitals began filing information to a private contractor or their states instead. A day later, an outcry — including from other federal health officials — prompted the Trump administration to reinstate that dashboard and another daily CDC report on the pandemic.

And on Thursday, the nation’s governors joined the chorus of objections over the abruptness of the change to the reporting protocols for hospitals, asking the administration to delay the shift for 30 days. In a statement, the National Governors Association said hospitals need the time to learn a new system, as they continue to deal with this pandemic.

The governors also urged the administration to keep the information publicly available.

And of course, Cult45 then blamed CDC for it.

The dashboard “was taken down in a fit of pique,” said Michael R. Caputo, the assistant secretary for public affairs at the Department of Health and Human Services. “The idea CDC scientists cannot rely upon their colleagues in the same department for data collection, or any other scientific work, is preposterous.”

The simple fact that they can't ever admit to anything that they're afraid might reflect badly on them, reflects badly on them. But they just keep trying to bull their way through anyway.

More WaPo:

Trump faces rising disapproval and widespread distrust on coronavirus, Post-ABC poll finds

Americans’ views of President Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic have deteriorated significantly as cases rise across the country and personal fears of becoming infected persist, a Washington Post-ABC News poll finds.

The Post-ABC poll shows 38 percent of Americans approve of his handling of the outbreak, down from 46 percent in May and 51 percent in March. Sixty percent disapprove, up from 53 percent in May and 45 percent in March.

More than half of the public — 52 percent — now disapproves “strongly” of Trump’s handling of the outbreak, roughly double the percentage who say they strongly approve of his efforts and an increase from 36 percent in strong disapproval since March.

So here we are at another crossroads, as The Daddy State insists on this gaslighting bullshit.

The Daddy State tells us lies as a means of demonstrating its power.

The lies have practically nothing to do with the subject of the lies.

Lying about everything is a way to condition us - to make us accept the premise that they can do anything they want ...

SO THEY CAN DICTATE REALITY TO US.

Today's GIF

And DeSantis was considered one of the brighter GOP bulbs.