Wow - gotta love this special kinda capitalism.
Jan 31, 2021
Overheard
The stock market is so cool - such a perfect barometer for the economy - because when it goes up we know we'll be getting almost nothing, and when it goes down we know we'll be losing our jobs.
And what's even better, now we know that during a pandemic, it goes way up and we still get nothing - plus we lose our jobs.
COVID-19 Update
World
USA
Vaccination Scorecard
The other rebellion: Dozens of Michigan restaurants defy state coronavirus order
It's a Monday morning and the Sunrise Family Diner is full. Retirees in jeans and plaid sit by the window, chatting over coffee and the local newspaper. A sign posted at the entrance urges customers to wear masks, but some don't. They get seated anyway, within arm's length of strangers in other booths.
Michigan is under shutdown, but inside Sunrise Family Diner, you might assume there is no pandemic.
This is the other rebellion. While armed extremists gathered outside the statehouse in Lansing a week after a mob stormed the U.S. Capitol in support of President Donald Trump’s false claims of election fraud, dozens of restaurateurs across Michigan held their own protests against reality.
The restaurants are operating in open defiance of the state’s polarizing governor and the restrictions she ordered in an effort to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The businesses say the science on which the rules are based — pushed by the state health department, World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — is politicized and untrustworthy.
“I don’t think it’s as bad as they’re saying it is,” diner owner David Koloski said. “The whole thing with the coronavirus is political. I think Democrats are dug in and unwilling to move on this.”
Their protests have thrived for weeks thanks to law enforcement officers who support their cause and state residents willing to travel hours in some cases to patronize businesses where they can flaunt their distaste for Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) and her rules. So far, cease-and-desist orders and fines have done little to dissuade the businesses, and state officials have declined to discuss what recourse they have for dealing with the revolt.
But the consequences are clear, some health professionals say: Even as Michigan’s coronavirus rates have declined, many of the state’s hospitals remain at capacity because of covid-19 patients.
Less than 40 miles away from Sunrise Family Diner, Lansing’s Sparrow Hospital has exceeded 90 percent capacity since April, even with multiple ICU expansions. Since last winter, more than 100 hospital caregivers have tested positive for the coronavirus and two have died. The hospital has lost more than 160 patients to covid since the pandemic began.
Sparrow president Alan Vierling describes driving past open restaurants and bars — and even more often the obvious house party or big family gathering — and how angry it makes him.
“You see that and you know that there’s a percentage of these folks, once they get covid, some of them will die. And it doesn’t have to be that way,” said Vierling, a registered nurse. “This isn’t like getting leukemia, where you can do everything right and get leukemia and die. With this, you have a choice.”
Anti-vaccine protesters temporarily shut down vaccine site
One of the largest vaccination sites in the country temporarily shut down Saturday because dozens of protesters blocked the entrance, stalling hundreds of motorists who had been waiting in line for hours, the Los Angeles Times reported.
The Los Angeles Fire Department shut the entrance to the vaccination center at Dodger Stadium about 2 p.m. as a precaution, officials told the newspaper.
The protesters had members of anti-vaccine and far-right groups, the Times reported. Some of them carried signs decrying the COVID-19 vaccine and shouting for people not to get the shots.
There were no incidents of violence, the Times said.
"This is completely wrong," said German Jaquez, who drove from his home in La Verne and had been waiting for an hour for his vaccination when the stadium's gates were closed. He said some of the protesters were telling people in line that the coronavirus is not real and that the vaccination is dangerous.
The vaccination site reopened shortly before 3 p.m., the Times reported. The site is usually open from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m.
After it reopened, Gov. Gavin Newsom tweeted: "We will not be deterred or threatened. Dodger Stadium is back up and running."
New Cases: 501,264 (⬆︎ .49%)
New Deaths: 12,683 (⬆︎ .57%)
USA
New Cases: 140,867 (⬆︎ .53%)
New Deaths: 2,892 (⬆︎ .65%)
Vaccination Scorecard
Total Vaccinations: 24.4 million
Total Priority Population: 21.5%
Total Population: 7.3%
We hear some encouraging news once in a while about how the numbers of new cases are decreasing gradually, but then we hear about spot shortages in morgue space, and how some hospitals (particularly in rural and already-under-served counties), and of course, the resurgence of The Great American Stoopid.
It's a Monday morning and the Sunrise Family Diner is full. Retirees in jeans and plaid sit by the window, chatting over coffee and the local newspaper. A sign posted at the entrance urges customers to wear masks, but some don't. They get seated anyway, within arm's length of strangers in other booths.
Michigan is under shutdown, but inside Sunrise Family Diner, you might assume there is no pandemic.
This is the other rebellion. While armed extremists gathered outside the statehouse in Lansing a week after a mob stormed the U.S. Capitol in support of President Donald Trump’s false claims of election fraud, dozens of restaurateurs across Michigan held their own protests against reality.
The restaurants are operating in open defiance of the state’s polarizing governor and the restrictions she ordered in an effort to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The businesses say the science on which the rules are based — pushed by the state health department, World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — is politicized and untrustworthy.
“I don’t think it’s as bad as they’re saying it is,” diner owner David Koloski said. “The whole thing with the coronavirus is political. I think Democrats are dug in and unwilling to move on this.”
Their protests have thrived for weeks thanks to law enforcement officers who support their cause and state residents willing to travel hours in some cases to patronize businesses where they can flaunt their distaste for Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) and her rules. So far, cease-and-desist orders and fines have done little to dissuade the businesses, and state officials have declined to discuss what recourse they have for dealing with the revolt.
But the consequences are clear, some health professionals say: Even as Michigan’s coronavirus rates have declined, many of the state’s hospitals remain at capacity because of covid-19 patients.
Less than 40 miles away from Sunrise Family Diner, Lansing’s Sparrow Hospital has exceeded 90 percent capacity since April, even with multiple ICU expansions. Since last winter, more than 100 hospital caregivers have tested positive for the coronavirus and two have died. The hospital has lost more than 160 patients to covid since the pandemic began.
Sparrow president Alan Vierling describes driving past open restaurants and bars — and even more often the obvious house party or big family gathering — and how angry it makes him.
“You see that and you know that there’s a percentage of these folks, once they get covid, some of them will die. And it doesn’t have to be that way,” said Vierling, a registered nurse. “This isn’t like getting leukemia, where you can do everything right and get leukemia and die. With this, you have a choice.”
It goes on, and I promise right now that I get the point here - these folks are clinging to the dream - a business that probably wasn't all that great to begin with, but was doing OK with hopes for better. Then along comes reality in the form of The Rona, and people ignore it because "conservatives" give them a fantasy that reinforces their belief in the mythology of the rugged individualist - the plucky survivor - man against the wilderness - armed only with his trusty spatula and a 5½ % federally guaranteed loan that he got through the SBA.
And The Stoopid keeps on a-rollin'.
AP (via Star-Tribune):
Anti-vaccine protesters temporarily shut down vaccine site
One of the largest vaccination sites in the country temporarily shut down Saturday because dozens of protesters blocked the entrance, stalling hundreds of motorists who had been waiting in line for hours, the Los Angeles Times reported.
The Los Angeles Fire Department shut the entrance to the vaccination center at Dodger Stadium about 2 p.m. as a precaution, officials told the newspaper.
The protesters had members of anti-vaccine and far-right groups, the Times reported. Some of them carried signs decrying the COVID-19 vaccine and shouting for people not to get the shots.
There were no incidents of violence, the Times said.
"This is completely wrong," said German Jaquez, who drove from his home in La Verne and had been waiting for an hour for his vaccination when the stadium's gates were closed. He said some of the protesters were telling people in line that the coronavirus is not real and that the vaccination is dangerous.
The vaccination site reopened shortly before 3 p.m., the Times reported. The site is usually open from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m.
After it reopened, Gov. Gavin Newsom tweeted: "We will not be deterred or threatened. Dodger Stadium is back up and running."
The Great American Stoopid is a raging fever that's at least as rampant, and as dangerous, as The Rona.
In Passing
If women had to climax in order to get pregnant, then for all practical purposes, the GOP wouldn't exist.
Jan 30, 2021
Podcast
Democrats did a thing.
We took back the Virginia state government in 2017.
We took the US House in 2018.
We took the White House and the US Senate in 2020.
Liberals did that.
Progressives did that.
LGBTQ+ did that.
Women did that.
Women of color did that.
Patriots - the real ones - did that.
Democrats did that.
Mail a check payable to:
The Professional Left Podcast
PO Box 9133
Springfield, IL 62791-9133
COVID-19 Update
World
USA
Vaccination Scorecard
Fauci sees vaccination for kids by summer; a look at the coronavirus vaccines in use, or getting close
The government's top infectious disease expert said Friday he hopes to see some kids starting to get vaccinated for COVID-19 in the next few months. It's a needed step to securing widespread immunity to the virus.
Vaccines are not yet approved for children, but testing already is underway for those as young as 12.
If those trials are successful, Dr. Anthony Fauci said they would be followed by another round of testing down to those 9 years old.
“Hopefully by the time we get to the late spring and early summer we will have children being able to be vaccinated,” Fauci said at a White House coronavirus briefing.
Caitlin Doughty – Ask A Mortician
New Cases: 589,242 (⬆︎ .58 %)
New Deaths: 15,050 (⬆︎ .68 %)
USA
New Cases: 169,033 (⬆︎ .64 %)
New Deaths: 3,652 (⬆︎ .82 %)
Vaccination Scorecard
Total Vaccinations: 23.2 million
Total Priority Population: 20.5 %
Total Population: 7.0 %
Fauci sees vaccination for kids by summer; a look at the coronavirus vaccines in use, or getting close
The government's top infectious disease expert said Friday he hopes to see some kids starting to get vaccinated for COVID-19 in the next few months. It's a needed step to securing widespread immunity to the virus.
Vaccines are not yet approved for children, but testing already is underway for those as young as 12.
If those trials are successful, Dr. Anthony Fauci said they would be followed by another round of testing down to those 9 years old.
“Hopefully by the time we get to the late spring and early summer we will have children being able to be vaccinated,” Fauci said at a White House coronavirus briefing.
Jan 29, 2021
And Again
We have to keep coming back to this because it's important.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell says ‘nothing more important’ to economy than vaccinating Americans
Powell’s comments come as the Biden administration ups pressure on Congress to pass relief bill with massive funding for vaccines
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell said Wednesday that getting Americans vaccinated is the most important thing to help the economy, comments that could boost President Biden’s push to pass a massive new relief package that includes big spending on vaccines.
“There’s nothing more important to the economy right now than people getting vaccinated,” Powell said at a news conference following the Fed’s regular policy meeting.
“That is really the main thing about the economy, is getting the pandemic under control, getting everyone vaccinated, getting people wearing masks and all that,” Powell added. “That’s the single most important economic growth policy that we can have.”
Powell’s comments came on the same day Biden’s covid-19 response team held its first public briefing, with senior adviser Andy Slavitt emphasizing that they cannot reach their goal of vaccinating all Americans unless Congress acts to pass Biden’s $1.9 trillion relief package.
The covid-19 recession is the most unequal in modern U.S. history
Job losses from the pandemic overwhelmingly affected low-wage, minority workers
most. Seven months into the recovery, Black women, Black men and mothers
of school-age children are taking the longest time to regain their employment.
If Trump had addressed the pandemic the way he should have done, we'd be into his 2nd term now, and he'd be pushing to make that term permanent.
Powell’s comments come as the Biden administration ups pressure on Congress to pass relief bill with massive funding for vaccines
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell said Wednesday that getting Americans vaccinated is the most important thing to help the economy, comments that could boost President Biden’s push to pass a massive new relief package that includes big spending on vaccines.
“There’s nothing more important to the economy right now than people getting vaccinated,” Powell said at a news conference following the Fed’s regular policy meeting.
“That is really the main thing about the economy, is getting the pandemic under control, getting everyone vaccinated, getting people wearing masks and all that,” Powell added. “That’s the single most important economic growth policy that we can have.”
Powell’s comments came on the same day Biden’s covid-19 response team held its first public briefing, with senior adviser Andy Slavitt emphasizing that they cannot reach their goal of vaccinating all Americans unless Congress acts to pass Biden’s $1.9 trillion relief package.
...
- and -
The economy is getting even worse for Americans with a high school diploma or less education
Last week, the Biden administration took over an economy that has been severely hobbled by the coronavirus pandemic. While unemployment has risen for all types of workers, jobs have recovered slowly but steadily for Americans with some college education, according to Labor Department data. That was true for lower-education workers too, until winter struck.
Standard measures of unemployment don’t capture the full scope of the problem, because they exclude the millions of Americans who are out of work but say they cannot look for a job because of the pandemic.
A better way is to look at the trend among all Americans age 25 or older. In December 2019, 53 percent of these Americans with a high school education or less were employed. By December 2020, that dropped to 48 percent. That means that one out of every 20 has lost employment in the past year. A fifth of those losses occurred in November and December.
These workers tend to be concentrated in the sort of industries that are most directly affected by government restrictions in response to covid-19, such as eating and drinking places, construction and hotels.
- and -
The economy is getting even worse for Americans with a high school diploma or less education
Last week, the Biden administration took over an economy that has been severely hobbled by the coronavirus pandemic. While unemployment has risen for all types of workers, jobs have recovered slowly but steadily for Americans with some college education, according to Labor Department data. That was true for lower-education workers too, until winter struck.
Standard measures of unemployment don’t capture the full scope of the problem, because they exclude the millions of Americans who are out of work but say they cannot look for a job because of the pandemic.
A better way is to look at the trend among all Americans age 25 or older. In December 2019, 53 percent of these Americans with a high school education or less were employed. By December 2020, that dropped to 48 percent. That means that one out of every 20 has lost employment in the past year. A fifth of those losses occurred in November and December.
These workers tend to be concentrated in the sort of industries that are most directly affected by government restrictions in response to covid-19, such as eating and drinking places, construction and hotels.
...
- and -
- and -
The covid-19 recession is the most unequal in modern U.S. history
Job losses from the pandemic overwhelmingly affected low-wage, minority workers
most. Seven months into the recovery, Black women, Black men and mothers
of school-age children are taking the longest time to regain their employment.
...
We dodged a bullet. 45* tried to mount an out-n-out revolution - armed rebellion - a fucking coup. He didn't just intend to overturn this one election. He was trying to shit-can our system of self-government. He tried to kill American democracy itself.
We won't be that lucky if we allow a "next time". And there's no mistaking it - next time is already under way.
Josh Hawley
Tom Cotton
Rand Paul
These guys, and others like them, are smart and capable and getting bolder and more ruthless.
Meantime, Kevin McCarthy made a little pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago.
We don't know exactly what it was about, but it's a fair bet McCarthy wasn't down there just looking in on an old friend.
Today's Beau
Justin King - Beau Of The Fifth Column
They know what they saw; they know what it was; and they know who's to blame.
COVID-19 Update
World
USA
Vaccination Scorecard
2020 was the worst year for economic growth since World War II
New federal data offers a comprehensive snapshot of a year marred by staggering job losses, waves of small-business closures and mounting inequality
The U.S. economy shrank by 3.5 percent in 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic ravaged factories, businesses and households, pushing U.S. economic growth to a low not seen since the United States wound down wartime spending in 1946.
Overall, the economy was surprisingly resilient in the second half of the year, given the falloff at the start of the public health crisis, according to data released Thursday from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Yet, the 1 percent growth in the fourth quarter signaled a faltering recovery and a long road ahead, with 9.8 million jobs still missing and 23.8 million adults struggling to feed their families.
“2020 has no precedent in modern economic history,” said David Wilcox, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former director of the domestic economics division at the Federal Reserve. “The influenza of 1918 and 1919 predates our modern system of economic statistics, and since World War II, there’s never been a contraction that even remotely approached the severity and the breadth of the initial collapse in 2020.”
It’s the first time the economy has contracted for the year since 2009, when gross domestic product shrank by 2.5 percent during the depths of the Great Recession. The next-worst plunge was 1946, when the economy shrank by 11.6 percent as the nation demobilized from its wartime footing.
Consumer spending in the final three months of the year slowed down in all 15 categories tracked by the BEA, as the sectors that powered third-quarter growth faltered. Americans spent less on restaurants and hotels, a sector that had been a surprising third-quarter bright spot, and the growth of spending on motor vehicles and health care slowed after a steep third-quarter acceleration.
“There has been a broad recovery but, economically speaking, we’re not out of the woods yet,” said Ben Herzon, executive director at IHS Markit.
Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) seized on the new GDP figures in a speech on the Senate floor, arguing that they make the case for passing a big new relief bill.
“Given these economic numbers, the need to act big and bold is urgent,” Schumer said. “Given the fact that the GDP sunk by 3.5 percent last year, we need recovery and rescue quickly.”
President Biden has proposed a $1.9 trillion economic relief package with money for individual Americans and cities and states, as well as coronavirus testing and vaccines, among other provisions.
Schumer reiterated Thursday that he intends to take steps to move the package forward next week, with or without GOP support. Many Republicans say the proposal is too costly and unnecessary on top of about $4 trillion in relief that Congress already passed, including $900 billion in December.
Even as the economy shed jobs like never before in 2020, personal income grew significantly, BEA data shows, largely because of $1,200 stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment benefits provided by the Cares Act. Disposable personal income grew faster for lower-income households than it did for the average household, according to an analysis published Thursday by Jason Furman, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute and a former top economist in the Obama administration, and Wilson Powell III of the Harvard Kennedy School.
However, those gains were front-loaded and have begun to erode. Federal stimulus drove personal income to record highs in the late spring, but the levels fell off significantly in the second half of the year as relief programs under the Cares Act wound down or expired. Congress also approved a $900 billion stimulus package last month, which sent Americans new $600 stimulus checks and extended unemployment benefits by as much as $300 a week through mid-March.
“The package enacted at the end of December was completely welcome, but we’re clearly seeing that it took some time to roll out and get that aid to folks,” said Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution and former chief economist at the Congressional Budget Office.
This is the last GDP report from President Donald Trump’s tenure. Until the pandemic, Trump was on track for an economic record that put him near the middle of the pack among recent presidents. But the coronavirus crisis ensured that Trump oversaw the slowest economic growth of any president in the period since World War II.
Economic chaos reigned in 2020. In the second quarter, gross domestic product contracted at the fastest quarterly rate ever for the United States, as the pandemic walloped workers and businesses and kept millions from leaving their homes. Then, in the third quarter, GDP soared at a record pace as parts of the economy reopened and businesses brought workers back onto their payrolls.
The nascent economic recovery was propelled by a rebound of sales of automobiles and household goods such as furniture, and in renovations and supplies for home offices. Consumer spending — which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity — used to be driven by an ever-growing demand for services, including leisure and hospitality, and restaurants and bars.
But as the pandemic warped tried-and-true shopping habits, economists watched consumers move their spending from services to goods. Purchases of computers, home office equipment and fire pits quickly overtook those of hotel rooms and movie tickets.
In fact, 2020 was the best year ever for Bedford Fields Home & Garden Center in the forested hills of Bedford, a suburb of Manchester, N.H.
When the pandemic hit, “literally everybody became gardeners,” office manager Tracey Auger said. The GDP category that includes nurseries and garden-supply stores was one of the fastest-growing in 2020.
“So many people were home, and we were deemed essential and one of the few places people could go to shop,” Auger said. “They needed somewhere to go, a project to do.”
Auger, who has worked at Bedford Fields for nine years, said the shop has based its 2021 orders on the assumption that this year will be somewhere between a normal year, like 2019, and the housebound plant madness of 2020. Bedford Fields has doubled its seed order for 2021 and has secured a full order of plants; after months of shortages, growers have finally caught up to surging demand.
For every business that has thrived in the era of social distancing, though, dozens of others have continued to suffer as customers stay home and governments restrict activity at high-contact businesses such as bars, restaurants and event centers.
At a news conference Wednesday, Powell said the pace of the recovery in economic activity and employment has moderated in recent months, with service-sector workers — mainly women and people of color — struggling to regain a foothold in the workforce.
“That is really the main thing about the economy, is getting the pandemic under control, getting everyone vaccinated, getting people wearing masks and all that,” Powell said. “That’s the single most important economic growth policy that we can have.”
The businesses that have been hit hardest disproportionately employ women, people of color and workers without college educations. Americans in those groups are suffering. Economists call it a K-shaped recovery: The top end of the economy continues to improve, even as lower earners fall further behind.
Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG, pointed to different slices of the economy that have their own versions of the K-shaped recovery. Among corporations, tech companies such as Zoom and Netflix are soaring. Airlines, less so.
For workers, Hunter said that among Americans who can work from home, the unemployment rate is 3.9 percent. The rate is 8.5 percent for people who have to report to a job site.
“In general, the GDP number is informative about the economy,” Hunter said. But “because of this corporate K, a household K, a geographic K, we have to dig under the hood in a different way.”
In the fourth quarter of 2020, spending from state and local governments fell 2.5 percent from the same quarter the previous year, adjusted for inflation. That’s the sharpest decrease since mid-2012, and mirrored the toll from the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
In the years after the Great Recession, economists pointed to the slow return of public-sector jobs as a drag on the broader recovery. The coronavirus crisis has once again spurred many left-leaning economists and policymakers to push for continued aid to state and local governments.
“I just want us to learn the lessons from the 2008-2009 Great Recession,” said Lisa Cook, an economist at Michigan State University. “With greater funding for state and local governments, [a relief package] will stem the adverse affects of what we’re seeing with respect to the virus.”
Cristal Farrington, 48, was laid off in May after more than two decades of climbing the corporate ladder at New York City firms that buy and distribute specialty foods and restaurant equipment.
Farrington is looking for whatever work she can get but said she was not optimistic that business would pick up in 2021, because the timelines for vaccine rollout and reopening remain fuzzy. And even if things turn around, it will be years before Black women like her are welcomed back into the workforce, she said.
“People of color, we’ve always been on the edge, teetering,” Farrington said. “Because we always know we’re going to be the first ones let go and the last ones hired.”
Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal predict a strong rebound in 2021, with the economy growing by 4.3 percent. That would be the best year since the late 1990s, as high earners unleash the billions they have saved during the pandemic.
One bright spot in 2020 is that the personal saving rate hit the highest on record, and some businesses are betting that — combined with a vaccine rollout, the December stimulus and any future Biden administration stimulus — all that saving will power a swift rebound.
The online review site Yelp this week reported that more businesses reopened in December than in any month since June. It also augurs well for this year that, in December, interest in wedding planning soared 22 percent above its 2019 level — a sign of hope for the battered live-events industry.
New Cases: 603,719 (⬆︎ .59%)
New Deaths: 16,426 (⬆︎ .75%)
USA
New Cases: 162,633 (⬆︎ .62%)
New Deaths: 3,919 (⬆︎ .89%)
Vaccination Scorecard
Total Vaccinations: 22 million
Total Priority Population: 19.6%
Total Population: 6.6%
Qult45 fucked up the COVID response and the economy went in shitter for everybody except a few "elites" with sufficient Wall Street holdings, and anyone pulling a Social Security check.
Because our government - as worthless and inept as "conservatives" love to claim it is - has been the firewall between all of us and a crash you wouldn't fucking believe if it had been allowed to happen.
Keynes rules, bitches!
2020 was the worst year for economic growth since World War II
New federal data offers a comprehensive snapshot of a year marred by staggering job losses, waves of small-business closures and mounting inequality
The U.S. economy shrank by 3.5 percent in 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic ravaged factories, businesses and households, pushing U.S. economic growth to a low not seen since the United States wound down wartime spending in 1946.
Overall, the economy was surprisingly resilient in the second half of the year, given the falloff at the start of the public health crisis, according to data released Thursday from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Yet, the 1 percent growth in the fourth quarter signaled a faltering recovery and a long road ahead, with 9.8 million jobs still missing and 23.8 million adults struggling to feed their families.
“2020 has no precedent in modern economic history,” said David Wilcox, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former director of the domestic economics division at the Federal Reserve. “The influenza of 1918 and 1919 predates our modern system of economic statistics, and since World War II, there’s never been a contraction that even remotely approached the severity and the breadth of the initial collapse in 2020.”
It’s the first time the economy has contracted for the year since 2009, when gross domestic product shrank by 2.5 percent during the depths of the Great Recession. The next-worst plunge was 1946, when the economy shrank by 11.6 percent as the nation demobilized from its wartime footing.
Consumer spending in the final three months of the year slowed down in all 15 categories tracked by the BEA, as the sectors that powered third-quarter growth faltered. Americans spent less on restaurants and hotels, a sector that had been a surprising third-quarter bright spot, and the growth of spending on motor vehicles and health care slowed after a steep third-quarter acceleration.
“There has been a broad recovery but, economically speaking, we’re not out of the woods yet,” said Ben Herzon, executive director at IHS Markit.
Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) seized on the new GDP figures in a speech on the Senate floor, arguing that they make the case for passing a big new relief bill.
“Given these economic numbers, the need to act big and bold is urgent,” Schumer said. “Given the fact that the GDP sunk by 3.5 percent last year, we need recovery and rescue quickly.”
President Biden has proposed a $1.9 trillion economic relief package with money for individual Americans and cities and states, as well as coronavirus testing and vaccines, among other provisions.
Schumer reiterated Thursday that he intends to take steps to move the package forward next week, with or without GOP support. Many Republicans say the proposal is too costly and unnecessary on top of about $4 trillion in relief that Congress already passed, including $900 billion in December.
Even as the economy shed jobs like never before in 2020, personal income grew significantly, BEA data shows, largely because of $1,200 stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment benefits provided by the Cares Act. Disposable personal income grew faster for lower-income households than it did for the average household, according to an analysis published Thursday by Jason Furman, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute and a former top economist in the Obama administration, and Wilson Powell III of the Harvard Kennedy School.
However, those gains were front-loaded and have begun to erode. Federal stimulus drove personal income to record highs in the late spring, but the levels fell off significantly in the second half of the year as relief programs under the Cares Act wound down or expired. Congress also approved a $900 billion stimulus package last month, which sent Americans new $600 stimulus checks and extended unemployment benefits by as much as $300 a week through mid-March.
“The package enacted at the end of December was completely welcome, but we’re clearly seeing that it took some time to roll out and get that aid to folks,” said Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution and former chief economist at the Congressional Budget Office.
This is the last GDP report from President Donald Trump’s tenure. Until the pandemic, Trump was on track for an economic record that put him near the middle of the pack among recent presidents. But the coronavirus crisis ensured that Trump oversaw the slowest economic growth of any president in the period since World War II.
Economic chaos reigned in 2020. In the second quarter, gross domestic product contracted at the fastest quarterly rate ever for the United States, as the pandemic walloped workers and businesses and kept millions from leaving their homes. Then, in the third quarter, GDP soared at a record pace as parts of the economy reopened and businesses brought workers back onto their payrolls.
The nascent economic recovery was propelled by a rebound of sales of automobiles and household goods such as furniture, and in renovations and supplies for home offices. Consumer spending — which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity — used to be driven by an ever-growing demand for services, including leisure and hospitality, and restaurants and bars.
But as the pandemic warped tried-and-true shopping habits, economists watched consumers move their spending from services to goods. Purchases of computers, home office equipment and fire pits quickly overtook those of hotel rooms and movie tickets.
In fact, 2020 was the best year ever for Bedford Fields Home & Garden Center in the forested hills of Bedford, a suburb of Manchester, N.H.
When the pandemic hit, “literally everybody became gardeners,” office manager Tracey Auger said. The GDP category that includes nurseries and garden-supply stores was one of the fastest-growing in 2020.
“So many people were home, and we were deemed essential and one of the few places people could go to shop,” Auger said. “They needed somewhere to go, a project to do.”
Auger, who has worked at Bedford Fields for nine years, said the shop has based its 2021 orders on the assumption that this year will be somewhere between a normal year, like 2019, and the housebound plant madness of 2020. Bedford Fields has doubled its seed order for 2021 and has secured a full order of plants; after months of shortages, growers have finally caught up to surging demand.
For every business that has thrived in the era of social distancing, though, dozens of others have continued to suffer as customers stay home and governments restrict activity at high-contact businesses such as bars, restaurants and event centers.
At a news conference Wednesday, Powell said the pace of the recovery in economic activity and employment has moderated in recent months, with service-sector workers — mainly women and people of color — struggling to regain a foothold in the workforce.
“That is really the main thing about the economy, is getting the pandemic under control, getting everyone vaccinated, getting people wearing masks and all that,” Powell said. “That’s the single most important economic growth policy that we can have.”
The businesses that have been hit hardest disproportionately employ women, people of color and workers without college educations. Americans in those groups are suffering. Economists call it a K-shaped recovery: The top end of the economy continues to improve, even as lower earners fall further behind.
Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG, pointed to different slices of the economy that have their own versions of the K-shaped recovery. Among corporations, tech companies such as Zoom and Netflix are soaring. Airlines, less so.
For workers, Hunter said that among Americans who can work from home, the unemployment rate is 3.9 percent. The rate is 8.5 percent for people who have to report to a job site.
“In general, the GDP number is informative about the economy,” Hunter said. But “because of this corporate K, a household K, a geographic K, we have to dig under the hood in a different way.”
In the fourth quarter of 2020, spending from state and local governments fell 2.5 percent from the same quarter the previous year, adjusted for inflation. That’s the sharpest decrease since mid-2012, and mirrored the toll from the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
In the years after the Great Recession, economists pointed to the slow return of public-sector jobs as a drag on the broader recovery. The coronavirus crisis has once again spurred many left-leaning economists and policymakers to push for continued aid to state and local governments.
“I just want us to learn the lessons from the 2008-2009 Great Recession,” said Lisa Cook, an economist at Michigan State University. “With greater funding for state and local governments, [a relief package] will stem the adverse affects of what we’re seeing with respect to the virus.”
Cristal Farrington, 48, was laid off in May after more than two decades of climbing the corporate ladder at New York City firms that buy and distribute specialty foods and restaurant equipment.
Farrington is looking for whatever work she can get but said she was not optimistic that business would pick up in 2021, because the timelines for vaccine rollout and reopening remain fuzzy. And even if things turn around, it will be years before Black women like her are welcomed back into the workforce, she said.
“People of color, we’ve always been on the edge, teetering,” Farrington said. “Because we always know we’re going to be the first ones let go and the last ones hired.”
Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal predict a strong rebound in 2021, with the economy growing by 4.3 percent. That would be the best year since the late 1990s, as high earners unleash the billions they have saved during the pandemic.
One bright spot in 2020 is that the personal saving rate hit the highest on record, and some businesses are betting that — combined with a vaccine rollout, the December stimulus and any future Biden administration stimulus — all that saving will power a swift rebound.
The online review site Yelp this week reported that more businesses reopened in December than in any month since June. It also augurs well for this year that, in December, interest in wedding planning soared 22 percent above its 2019 level — a sign of hope for the battered live-events industry.
Jan 28, 2021
Fuck You, Proud Boys
(I don't know how long this stays up, or if it'll get put behind the pay wall or what, but here it is for now)
Today's Tweet
Follow the thread for a pretty good timeline on the Mike Pence part of this mess.
1. Donald Trump spent months planning the January 6 telling his followers lies about election fraud & encouraging them to “fight” for him. He tweeted about a big protest in D.C. that would be “wild” not peaceful.
— Respectful Dialogue (@timeindawater1) January 26, 2021
 pic.twitter.com/teD2CbNvLi
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