Apr 27, 2023

Bye Bye Tucker


You have to be aware by now that Tucker Carlson has been canned by DumFux News.

Here's Carlson's "Farewell and thanks, but don't worry, I'll be back" video.

Note the not-so-subtle projection, making sure the criticism is in passive and generic language that sounds "reasonable', but is intended as one long dog whistle.

"... step outside the noise..."
Like Carlson had nothing to do with creating the noise.

"... people who care about what's true..." 
This is the usual gaslighting/ass-kissing about his audience being the real Americans - the only ones who are good and decent.

"... how unbelievably stupid most of the debates you see on television are."
This is the cool kids argument - "they're all fucked up over there, but we're all good, you and me - we know the score".

 "... the big topics - the ones that define our future - get virtually no discussion at all."
In praise of exclusion and paranoia. ie: replacement theory, scary black people, rampant crime, etc.
The pretense that the big issues aren't being addressed is, of course, a lie. What he's doing is making sure his audience remains in one silo or another, and at his discretion to put them where he wants them.

It goes on and on - here's Brian Tyler Cohen's rundown.



More AI


There won't be any conscious toasters. No matter how cute and cuddly the engineers can get it to seem like it is, your technology will not be a living thing. Ever. Anything we build is - and will always remain - an inanimate and unfeeling thing. A gizmo. A gadget.

In the end:
  • your house is a well-ordered pile of sticks and rocks
  • your car is a well-ordered pile of steel and plastic
  • your laptop is a well-ordered pile of silicon and underpaid nerd sweat
  • Artificial Intelligence is a clever attempt to imitate thought
There is no Blue Fairy to turn your wooden puppet into a real boy.

Machinery simply cannot achieve sentience.

That, of course, is a bold statement. I usually hold back on the absolutes because no probability is ever either 0 or 100. But until we produce something that is a living thinking being, and not a facsimile, it's aways going to be what the name implies - artificial.

And we already know how to make real live things - we call it reproduction - breeding - birth - goal-oriented copulation - fucking with purpose.

Anyway.


Opinion
The wizards of AI can’t give it a brain, or heart, or consciousness

ChatGPT is a fascinating piece of software based on artificial intelligence and built by a company called OpenAI. Chat’s specialty is reading and writing the English language, which is no easy task. Specify a topic and Chat will produce a short essay in any form you like, including rhymed verse. If research is needed along the way, Chat turns straight to the internet, which is swarming with information — some of it even true.

This is clever and impressive software, and might be useful to many people. Several first-rate software builders have told me recently how well Chat draws and, separately, how well it composes new software. A new Chat-written app might produce a video game, a browser or whatever else you’ve specified as the new software’s task.

ChatGPT has been celebrated most of all, however, for its ability to converse and write essays in good, clear English. So, how well does Chat do at this difficult, ambitious task? A task that, pre-Chat, only human beings have been able to handle?

Not well. There are several reasons why not.

This software — like all other software — is unconscious. Of course, building conscious software wasn’t the goal of this project— which is a good thing, because it can’t be done. To speak of a “conscious computer” (except metaphorically) is nonsense, like speaking of a “conscious toaster.” Both objects are machines designed and built by humans, capable of being assembled or disassembled — but not of living or dying. Long and interesting philosophical arguments have been made on these points, but none changes the common-sense conclusion. Those who put their trust in unconscious writers, assistants or colleagues ought to be careful.

Being unconscious, Chat feels nothing. It can’t feel. Therefore, it can’t understand English, or human beings, or anything at all. How is it supposed to understand the words “I feel happy” when it has never felt anything, and never will? “Understand” is not even a word that applies to machines. To say that “a computer understands” is like saying that your car is losing its sense of humor or mooning over an old girlfriend.

Consciousness seems to be inseparable from the physical body. And because we are conscious, we can feel and have emotions — physical emotions and feelings, which might (unpredictably) change our entire worldview and state of mind. Real physical emotions are required, not a data-processing analog. We must feel our emotions directly, not become aware of them as if we were reading a watch. We don’t say, “How do I feel? Let me check.” We experience our feelings, whether we want to or not.

Many impressive ChatGPT conversations have been posted online, and they speak for themselves. Sometimes Chat can actually chat. But if you challenge its assertions, it has no intuitions about whether you are wrong or bluffing. It’s eager to concede the point and backpedal. If you ask it to explain something again, because you didn’t understand the first time, it has no feeling for what might have confused you. It tends to repeat what it said before, with the phrases juggled and slightly changed. Chat is like a person who is barely paying attention, which is understandable because — being unconscious — Chat is definitely not paying attention. It couldn’t possibly be paying attention.

Its lack of consciousness, and its consequent lack of intuition or feeling, limits Chat’s ability to judge the quality of its own work. Here is Chat explaining how to make a success of your job. “By establishing trust and rapport, you will create a support network … ”

Stop right there, Chat. Phrases such as “trust and rapport” and “support network” are cliches. If Chat catches on (and it’s already catching), look for a deluge of bad prose in a nation that is already half-choked on it.

Chat once again: “Today, spoons are an essential part of our daily lives, and are used in a wide variety of settings, from the kitchen to the dining room.”

Why not, “Today, we need spoons in the kitchen, the dining room and in many other places”? Chat depends on canned phrases and writes like a bureaucrat: It is formal and officious. Naturally, an unconscious machine has no ear for language.

The strangest thing of all about Chat is that some intelligent people are actually afraid of it. Some demand a worldwide pause in AI research, although they know nothing about the field. This is ridiculous. Somehow, they believe, Chat might jump out of its computer and go rampaging across the globe. As a seasoned professional, I believe this to be unlikely. Chat, in my judgment, will stay quietly enclosed in its own computer and its own network — and behave itself.

In short, I would relax, at least for the time being. AI technology has been around since the 1950s, yet Chat isn’t remotely smart enough to do much damage. But if you are too scared to relax, try smashing your computer to little pieces and tossing them in the trash. Vanquishing Chat might be the least of your rewards.

Apr 26, 2023

Sometimes I Cry Quietly

You can't always see the wounds.

The cruelty of war is in what we expect from normal people, who should be hanging out at home with friends and family - having a little barbecue and a beer and some pleasant conversation - not wiping the blood of their fellows from the inside of a BMP because some asshole in Moscow decided he needs to wave his dick around, and pretend he's a world-beater.

And no one who hasn't been there will ever understand.



We can't let these people down

Слава Україні

🌎🌏🌍❤️🇺🇦

Second Year In A Row


It's kind of a bad look when you try to celebrate past glories in the context of current failures.


Red Square to be closed for two weeks prior to May 9 parade

Red Square will be closed to the public from April 27 to May 10 due to preparations for the parade in honor of the 78th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War, said the Russian Federal Guard Service.

Red Square is closed every year in the run-up to May 9, and traffic on central streets is restricted due to rehearsals for the military parade.

In 2023, access to the Lenin Mausoleum will be closed from April 23 to May 15. The Kremlin will be closed to visitors on May 7 and 9.

On the evening of April 25, traffic on Tverskaya Street, Mokhovaya Street, Bolshaya Nikitskaya Street, and other central streets will be restricted due to the parade rehearsal.

A number of Russian cities have decided not to host Victory Day parades this year due to “security reasons.” There will also be no Immortal Regiment procession, in Moscow and elsewhere, this year.

Today's Beau

The independent run may well be Trump's thing. He has no loyalty for the GOP (or anyone else - duh), and since he's really only in it for the Power Coupon$, he can continue to fleece the rubes to pay his legal fees and support his habits, as he gets what he thinks is a little payback by screwing things up completely (mostly for the Republicans, but the rest of us too) for having "treated him so unfairly".

He seems to be going with the Sun Tzu thing. ie: present your adversary with a dilemma that leads him to a lose/lose conclusion, instead of posing a problem that he'll eventually solve.


Justin King - Beau Of The Fifth Column

Today's Pix

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Mar-A-Lago Mean Girl Club
That sound you hear is MAGA heads exploding



A Tech Bro Fantasy

I'm growing increasingly concerned about what feels like a metric fuck ton of people switching off reality in favor of one comforting bullshit dream or another.

I do it quite a bit myself, actually. Mine is usually "Mike Wins Lottery Jackpot!"

Or, just as often, it's imagining and rehearsing my killer slap-backs as my ex-wife tries a little tough-love-chastisement about "You really need get over it already, dude".

But all that strikes me as being pretty normal, lame, and harmless. What I'm worrying about is that the fantasy we're indulging in is double-edged:
  • AI is going to make a whole world of nothing but ice cold sweet tea and oven-fresh macaroons
  • AI is going to turn it all into a hell scape of unimaginable horror.
Adam Conover


But here's the thing: AI is nothing without human input. I can think up something new and unique on my own and for myself. AI can't.

It's not the machinery we have to fear - it's the machinery in the hands of the bad guys. As always.

Apr 25, 2023

Cycling Again



Recent, rapid ocean warming ahead of El Niño alarms scientists

A recent, rapid heating of the world's oceans has alarmed scientists concerned that it will add to global warming.


This month, the global sea surface hit a new record high temperature. It has never warmed this much, this quickly.

Scientists don't fully understand why this has happened.

But they worry that, combined with other weather events, the world's temperature could reach a concerning new level by the end of next year.

Experts believe that a strong El Niño weather event - a weather system that heats the ocean - will also set in over the next months.

Warmer oceans can kill off marine life, lead to more extreme weather and raise sea levels. They are also less efficient at absorbing planet-warming greenhouse gases.

What's the difference between El Niño and La Niña?

Accelerating melt of ice sheets now 'unmistakable'


An important new study, published last week with little fanfare, highlights a worrying development.

Over the past 15 years, the Earth has accumulated almost as much heat as it did in the previous 45 years, with most of the extra energy going into the oceans.

This is having real world consequences - not only did the overall temperature of the oceans hit a new record in April this year, in some regions the difference from the long term was enormous.

In March, sea surface temperatures off the east coast of North America were as much as 13.8C higher than the 1981-2011 average.

"It's not yet well established, why such a rapid change, and such a huge change is happening," said Karina Von Schuckmann, the lead author of the new study and an oceanographer at the research group Mercator Ocean International.

"We have doubled the heat in the climate system the last 15 years, I don't want to say this is climate change, or natural variability or a mixture of both, we don't know yet. But we do see this change."

One factor that could be influencing the level of heat going into the oceans is, interestingly, a reduction in pollution from shipping.

In 2020, the International Maritime Organisation put in place a regulation to reduce the sulphur content of fuel burned by ships.

This has had a rapid impact, reducing the amount of aerosol particles released into the atmosphere.

But aerosols that dirty the air also help reflect heat back into space - removing them may have caused more heat to enter the waters.

What are the impacts of ocean warming?

The average surface temperature of the world's seas has increased by around 0.9C compared to preindustrial levels, with 0.6C coming in the last 40 years alone.

This is less than increases in air temperatures over the land - which have risen by more than 1.5C since preindustrial times. This is because much more energy is needed to heat water than land, and because oceans absorb heat far below their surface.

Even this seemingly small average increase has significant real-world consequences.

Loss of species:
More frequent and intense marine heatwaves lead to mass mortality of sea life. This is particularly damaging for coral reefs.

More extreme weather:
Increased heat in the upper ocean surface means hurricanes and cyclones can pick up more energy. This means they become more intense and longer-lasting.

Sea-level rise:
Warmer waters take up more space - known as thermal expansion - and can greatly accelerate the melting of glaciers from Greenland and Antarctica that flow into the oceans. This raises global sea levels, increasing risks of coastal flooding.

Less ability to absorb CO2:
The oceans currently take up about a quarter of greenhouse gas emissions. Warmer waters have less ability to absorb CO2. If the oceans take up less CO2 in future, more would accumulate in the atmosphere - further warming the air and oceans.

Another important factor that is worrying scientists is the weather phenomenon known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

For the past three years this naturally occurring event has been in a cooler phase called La Niña, and has helped keep global temperatures in check.

But researchers now believe that a strong El Niño is forming which will have significant implications for the world.

Unusually high sea surface temperatures
in the central and east tropical Pacific
is a classic sign of an El Niño phase

"The Australian Bureau's model does go strongly for a strong El Niño. And it has been trending that way and all the climate models have been trending that way to a stronger event," said Hugh McDowell from Australia's Bureau of Meteorology.

Mr McDowell cautioned that predictions at this point of the year are less reliable. Other researchers are more bullish.

A coastal El Niño has already developed off the shores of Peru and Ecuador and experts believe a fully formed event will follow with implications for global temperatures.

"If a new El Niño new comes on top of it, we will probably have additional global warming of 0.2-0.25C," said Dr Josef Ludescher, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research.

"The impact on the temperature is relaxed a few months after the peak of any El Niño so this is why 2024 will be probably the warmest on record."

"And we may, we will be close to 1.5C days and perhaps we will temporarily go over."

El Niño will likely disrupt weather patterns around the world, weaken the monsoon and threaten more wildfires in Australia.

But there are more fundamental worries that as more heat goes into the ocean, the waters may be less able to store excess energy.

And there are concerns that the heat contained in the oceans won't stay there.

Several scientists contacted for this story were reluctant to go on the record about the implications.

One spoke of being "extremely worried and completely stressed."

Some research has shown that world is warming in jumps, where little changes over a period of years and then there are sudden leaps upwards, like steps on a stairs, closely linked to the development of El Niño.

There is some hope in this scenario, according to Karina Von Schuckmann. Temperatures may come down again after the El Niño subsides.

"We still have a window where we can act and we should use this to reduce the consequences," she told BBC News.

Overheard


"The secret that scientists don't want you to know!!!"

Dude - have you ever met even one scientist? The people I know who're scientists are practically desperate to tell me all about their recent discoveries regarding the mating habits of brown marmorated stink bugs, or the benefits of longitudinal exploration relative to bi-lateral thought processes.

They're yelling at the top of their lungs, hoping someone - anyone - will listen as they describe what they've learned, and explain it in sometimes excruciating detail.

So, being skeptical is one thing. Pretending you're smarter than the people who are actually smart makes you sound dumber than you could ever imagine.