Apr 14, 2020

Let's Review

Back in the 90s, Hillary mentioned "a vast right wing conspiracy" and we all laughed and laughed.

So then a lot of seemingly weird random shit went on and "suddenly" here we are, teetering on the brink - possibly tipping into full blown Daddy State.

Quick recap with Nancy MacLean in truthout:

Mark Karlin:
Can you summarize the importance of James McGill Buchanan to the development of the modern extreme right wing in the United States?

Nancy MacLean: 
The modern extreme right wing I’m talking about, just to be clear, is the libertarian movement that now sails under the Republican flag, particularly but not only the Freedom Caucus, yet goes back to the 1950s in both parties. President Eisenhower called them “stupid” and fashioned his approach — calling it modern Republicanism — as an antidote to them. Goldwater was their first presidential candidate. He bombed. Reagan, they believed, was going to enact their agenda. He didn’t. But beginning in the early 2000s, they became a force to be reckoned with. What had changed? The discovery by their chief funder, Charles Koch, of the approach developed by James McGill Buchanan for how to take apart the liberal state.

Buchanan studied economics at the University of Chicago and belonged to the same milieu as F.A. Hayek, Milton Friedman and Ludwig von Mises, but he used his training to analyze public life. And he supplied what no one else had: an operational strategy to vanquish the model of government they had been criticizing for decades — and prevent it from being recreated. It was Buchanan who taught Koch that for capitalism to thrive, democracy must be enchained.

Buchanan was a very smart man, the only winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics from the US South, in fact. But his life’s work was forever shaped by the Supreme Court’s Brown v. Board of Education decision. He arrived in Virginia in 1956, just as the state’s leaders were goading the white South to fight the court’s ruling, a ruling he saw not through the lens of equal protection of the law for all citizens but rather as another wave in a rising tide of unwarranted and illegitimate federal interference in the affairs of the states that began with the New Deal. For him what was at stake was the sanctity of private property rights, with northern liberals telling southern owners how to spend their money and behave correctly. Given an institute to run on the campus of the University of Virginia, he promised to devote his academic career to understanding how the other side became so powerful and, ultimately, to figuring out an effective line of attack to break down what they had created and return to what he and the Virginia elite viewed as appropriate for America. In a nutshell, he studied the workings of the political process to figure out what was needed to deny ordinary people — white and Black — the ability to make claims on government at the expense of private property rights and the wishes of capitalists. And then he identified how to rejigger that political process not only to reverse the gains but also to prevent the system from ever reverting back. He sought, in his words, to “enchain Leviathan,” which is why I titled the book Democracy in Chains.

It goes on, and she summarizes the plan in a way that makes it seem plain and simple. It's a good read.


Apr 13, 2020

COVID-19 LowLights


WaPo:

Navy reports first death of a sailor associated with aircraft carrier crippled by the coronavirus

3 Vans, 6 Coolers, a Plane, a Storm and 2 Labs:
A Nasal Swab’s Journey

The backlog for Covid-19 testing in New Jersey and other parts of the country is getting worse, not better. From the nose of a patient on a mile-long line to a phone call days later, bottlenecks thwart its progress.

Stop declaring premature victory against coronavirus

Over the past week or so, the direst possible futures for the novel coronavirus pandemic have seemingly receded. Though the U.S. has by far the greatest number of confirmed cases of any country (at time of writing about 558,000 cases and 22,000 deaths, which are almost certainly drastic underestimates), a recent analysis from the University of Washington revised its estimate of the predicted total American death count down to "only" about 60,400.

This has led many to question the necessity of all the social-distancing and lockdown measures that are wreaking economic havoc. But while a possibly lower death count is certainly good news, it would be wildly premature to declare victory now. America is not even close to finished with the first wave of infection, and we have done almost nothing to prevent a second.

Let's deal with the idiots first. Fox News conservatives and pudding-brained contrarians like former New York Times reporter Alex Berensonhave seized on the revised estimates to conclude the experts were wrong all along, and coronavirus is not as bad as they claimed. This is like a firefighter in a burning building saying that because his flesh has not been scorched off his bones, he can safely ditch all his fireproof gear. The researchers are clear that the estimated death toll has declined because all the lockdown measures have drastically cut the infection rate. The appalling failure of New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio shows what happens to places that don't get on top of an outbreak quickly — they end up digging mass graves.

Today's GIF


hat tip = Doug Rapier, FB pal

Losing

The Guardian:

Donald Trump’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, which he once dismissed as a hoax, has been fiercely criticised at home as woefully inadequate to the point of irresponsibility.

Yet also thanks largely to Trump, a parallel disaster is unfolding across the world: the ruination of America’s reputation as a safe, trustworthy, competent international leader and partner.

Call it the Trump double-whammy. Diplomatically speaking, the US is on life support.

“The Trump administration’s self-centred, haphazard, and tone-deaf response [to Covid-19] will end up costing Americans trillions of dollars and thousands of otherwise preventable deaths,” wrote Stephen Walt, professor of international relations at Harvard.


“But that’s not the only damage the United States will suffer. Far from ‘making America great again’, this epic policy failure will further tarnish [its] reputation as a country that knows how to do things effectively.”

This adverse shift could be permanent, Walt warned. Since taking office in 2017, Trump has insulted America’s friends, undermined multilateral alliances and chosen confrontation over cooperation. Sanctions, embargoes and boycotts aimed at China, Iran and Europe have been globally divisive.

For the most part, oft-maligned foreign leaders such as Germany’s Angela Merkel have listened politely, turning the other cheek in the interests of preserving the broader relationship.

But Trump’s ineptitude and dishonesty in handling the pandemic, which has left foreign observers as well as Americans gasping in disbelief, is proving a bridge too far.

Erratic behaviour, tolerated in the past, is now seen as downright dangerous. It’s long been plain, at least to many in Europe, that Trump could not be trusted. Now he is seen as a threat. It is not just about failed leadership. It’s about openly hostile, reckless actions.

- and -

Heiko Maas, Germany’s foreign minister, said he hoped the crisis would force a fundamental US rethink about “whether the ‘America first’ model really works”. The Trump administration’s response had been too slow, he said. “Hollowing out international connections comes at a high price,” Maas warned.

Lasting resentment over how the US went missing in action in the coronavirus wars of 2020 may change the way the world works.


COVID-19 Update

Distancing is working - something is working.

Whatever it is, we're starting to push back the date when some lucky schmuck becomes the 100,000th American to die of COVID-19.

Just a few days ago, we were looking at #100,000 to die on or about April 25th. Now it's looking more likely that if it happens at all, it won't be until the first (or maybe second) week in May.

Because the number of Reported New Cases is dropping:


Fauci has been telling us for a few days now that the modeling shows a new Total Dead number at around 65,000.




Let's just hope Cult45 doesn't see this (possibly) emerging trend as an opportunity to fuck it up again - which we all know is always a fair probability.

Apr 12, 2020

COVID-19 Update

My Growth Rates are screwed up again because I checked early today - the same as I screwed up yesterday's rates because I checked late.

There's still some reason to be optimistic about it because people are doing what needs done even as Cult45 continues to to do amazingly stoopid things.

The big hangup now is that 45* has called for cutting back on the testing, which is a really good way to pretend COVID-19 isn't as bad as everybody says it is - as bad as it fucking actually is.

I mentioned it in an earlier post. If you don't have a COVID-19 diagnosis, then death certificates read "Brain Death Due To Anoxia", or "Cyanotic Toxicity Due To Interstitial Pneumonia", or "Renal Failure Due To Sepsis", or plain old ordinary Cardiac Arrest.

So you keep telling the lie about what a great job you're doing - "Nobody is testing better than we are" - while you push down on the ability to process those tests, and keep threatening to retaliate against anyone who dares tell the unflattering truth about the fucking monster in the White House.





Today's Today

Happy Easter

Apr 11, 2020

COVID-19 Udate

Growth Rates aren't a good reflection of what's happening.

I didn't get a look at the numbers until late in the afternoon - so I'm not going to point them up because they're scarier than they need to be.




Today's Tweet


Katie Porter is not to be fucked with.

Podcast



a little love's in order

Mail a check payable to:
     The Professional Left Podcast
     PO Box 9133
     Springfield, IL 62791-9133
 


The Professional Left is back on YouTube.

"I have an elective procedure I'd like to perform on certain Republican men."




Apr 10, 2020

A Big Reveal



I'm not a silver linings kinda guy. If it's good, it's good, even though there's always a cost.


But if it's bad, it doesn't mean we're looking at a cost, and we can then shoehorn some fucking blessing into it.

Sometimes bad is bad.

But sometimes, we get something really bad, and it forces us to see some truth.

(That's not a silver lining - that's some shit we should've seen before but we missed it because some asshole sold us on the benefits of choosing to be blind to it)

Anyway - here we go again.

NYT:

Ever since the oil shocks of the 1970s, the idea of energy independence, which in its grandest incarnation meant freedom from the world’s oil-rich trouble spots, has been a dream for Democrats and Republicans alike. It once seemed utterly unattainable — until the advent of fracking, which unleashed a torrent of oil. By early 2019, America was the world’s largest producer of crude oil, surpassing both Saudi Arabia and Russia. And President Trump reveled in the rhetoric: We hadn’t merely achieved independence, his administration said, but rather “energy dominance.”

Then came Covid-19, and, on March 8, the sudden and vicious end to the truce between Saudi Arabia and Russia, under which both countries limited production to prop up prices. On March 9, the price of oil plunged by almost a third, its steepest one-day drop in almost 30 years.

As a result, the stocks that make up the S&P 500 energy sector fell 20 percent, marking the sector’s largest drop on record. There were rumblings that shale companies would seek a federal lifeline. Whiting Petroleum, whose stock once traded for $150 a share, filed for bankruptcy. Tens of thousands of Texans are being laid off in the Permian basin and other parts of the state, and the whole industry is bracing for worse.

On the surface, it appears that two unforeseeable and random shocks are threatening our dream.

In reality, the dream was always an illusion, and its collapse was already underway. That’s because oil fracking has never been financially viable. America’s energy independence was built on an industry that is the very definition of dependent — dependent on investors to keep pouring billions upon billions in capital into money-losing companies to fund their drilling. Investors were willing to do this only as long as oil prices, which are not under America’s control, were high — and when they believed that one day, profits would materialize.


(ed note: think this might have something to do with 45* asking his pal MBS to boost oil prices a week or so ago?)

Even before the coronavirus crisis, the spigot was drying up. Now, it has been shut off.

The industry’s lack of profits wasn’t exactly a secret. In early 2015, the hedge fund manager David Einhorn announced at an investment conference that he had looked at the financial statements of 16 publicly traded shale producers and found that from 2006 to 2014, they spent $80 billion more than they received from selling oil. The basic reason is that the amount of oil coming out of a fracked well declines steeply after the first year — more than 50 percent in year two. To keep growing, companies have to keep plowing billions back into the ground.

The industry’s boosters argue that technological gains, such as drilling ever bigger wells, and clustering wells more tightly together to reduce the cost of moving equipment, eventually would lead to a gusher of profits. Fracking, they said, was just manufacturing, in which process and human intelligence could reduce costs and conquer geology.


Signal Hill CA ca 1920s or 30s
Actually, no. The key issue is the “parent child problem.” When wells are clustered tightly together, with so-called child wells drilled around the parent, the wells interfere with each other, resulting in less oil, not more. (This may not surprise anyone who is attempting to be productive while working in close quarters with their children.)

The promised profits haven’t materialized. In the first half of 2019, when oil was around $55 a barrel, only a few top-tier companies were profitable. “By now, it should be abundantly clear that the current shale oil business model does not work — even for the very best companies in the industry,” the investment firm SailingStone Capital Partners explained in a recent note.


Policymakers who wanted to tout energy independence disregarded all this, even as investors were starting to lose patience. As early as 2018, some investors had begun to tell companies that they wanted to see free cash flow, and that they were tired of compensation models that rewarded executives with rich paydays for increasing production, but failed to take profits into account. As a result, fracking stocks badly underperformed the market.

But with super-low interest rates, investors in search of yield were still willing to buy debt. Over the past 10 years, the entire energy industry has issued over $400 billion in high-yield debt. “They subprimed the American energy ecosystem,” says a long time energy market observer.

Even as the public equity and debt markets grew cautious, drilling continued. That’s because one big source of funding didn’t dry up: private equity. And why not? Private equity financiers typically get a 2 percent management fee on funds they can raise, so they are incentivized to take all the money that pension funds, desperate for returns to shore up their promises to retirees, have been willing to give them.

In the Haynesville and the Utica Shales, two major natural gas plays, over half of the drilling is being done by private equity-backed companies; in the oil-rich Permian basin, it’s about a quarter of the drilling. From 2015 through 2019, private equity firms raised almost $80 billion in funds focused mostly on shale production, according to Barclays.

Until the capital markets began to get suspicious, private equity investors could flip companies they had funded to larger, public companies, making a profitable exit regardless of whether or not the underlying business was making money.

That too is ending, as investors in such funds have become disillusioned.

You can see how all of this is playing out by looking at Occidental Petroleum. In 2019, Oxy, as it’s known, topped a competing bid from Chevron and paid $38 billion to take over Anadarko Petroleum, which is one of the major shale companies. Since that time, Oxy’s stock has plummeted almost 80 percent in part due to fears that the Anadarko acquisition is going to prove so wildly unprofitable that it sinks the company.

On March 10, the company announced that it would slash its dividend for the first time since the early 1990’s, when Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait sent oil prices plummeting.

Occidental is just one piece of the puzzle. In April, the Energy Information Administration cut its forecast for U.S. oil production, estimating that it will fall both this year and next — suggesting that the days of huge growth in production from shale are over.

On March 10, Scott Sheffield, the chief executive of Pioneer Natural Resources, a major driller in the Permian Basin, told Bloomberg that U.S. oil output could fall by more than two million barrels per day by next year if prices remain where they are today.

“This is late ’80s bad,” a close observer of the industry says.

After the United States engaged in a high-stakes negotiation with Russia and Saudi Arabia to curtail production, a tentative deal was struck on Thursday. Certainly, President Trump, who has staked so much on the American shale industry, wants to save it. “We really need Trump to do something or he’s going to lose all the energy states in this election,” Mr. Sheffield told CNBC in late March.

A deal, and higher oil prices, might help the industry. But they won’t fix its fundamental problem with profitability. Energy independence was a fever dream, fed by cheap debt and frothy capital markets.

All that’s left to tally is the environmental and financial damage. In the five years ending in April, there were 215 bankruptcies for oil and gas companies, involving $130 billion in debt, according to the law firm Haynes and Boone. Moody’s, the rating agency, said that in the third quarter of 2019, 91 percent of defaulted U.S. corporate debt was due to oil and gas companies. And North American oil and gas drillers have almost $100 billion of debt that is set to mature in the next four years.It’s still unclear where most of this debt is held. Some of it has been packaged into so-called collateralized loan obligations, pieces of which are held by hedge funds. Some of it may be on bank balance sheets. Investors in the equity of these companies have already seen the value of their holdings decimated. Pension funds that have poured money into private equity firms may take a hit soon, too. All we know for sure is that fracking company executives and private equity financiers have made a fortune by touting the myth of energy independence — and they won’t be the ones who have to pick up the pieces.


Redemption Is Where You Find It

NewsLetter (pay wall - you're allowed a few freebies):

Her emotional saviour, even in her bleakest moments, has always been music.


And, boy, can she sing. Having supported the likes of Van Morrison and Nanci Griffith, Kaz has toured extensively across the world and has a buoyant following.

One of her songs - Lipstick and Cocaine - has become an internet sensation - detailing the abuse she suffered at the hands of a former partner. He slit her throat with a kitchen knife (the scar is still shockingly very visible).

‘It was six years of torment and abuse, physical horror. But I felt that was all I was worth,’’ she says of the abusive relationship. ‘‘He nearly killed me more times than enough.’’

‘‘Through the beatings and everything that he done, I just kept saying to myself - ‘Go on Kaz, you keep going - there will be moment when you can get free’.’’

The time came, when he tried to kill her.

She says: ‘‘I lay, and as graphic as it is, I saw the blood rising - that’s when my mum’s face came to me from the grave. Whether I was hallucinating or not, I don’t care, it saved me and she said ‘Come on honey, one more fight - you can do this, get up, get to the phone’.

‘‘He had kicked me unconscious, but the policeman got me and I woke up the next day in the hospital and the doctor said to me ‘do you know what you’ve done to yourself?’’

Sickeningly, her partner told the medical team that she had cut her own throat.

In the video for Lipstick and Cocaine, filmed in St Anne’s Cathedral, Belfast, tears trickle down her face as she sings so emotively about the experience.

She says the song is a thank you to the doctor and policeman who saved her.

‘‘At last someone believed me,’’ she says.

The audience, too, are deeply affected by her unabashed emotion

Every line packs an emotional wallop- a lifetime’s hurt magically condensed into three minutes.

It is an immaculate, gut-wrenching, miserable and wonderful song.


Kaz Hawkins:


An Oldie

George Clooney pitching UDUMASS


Hear The Anger

Seth Meyers

About Those Numbers



I've said before that it seems Cult45 is kinda softening us up to believe the numbers of dead Americans due to COVID-19 are coming down &/or "aren't really as high as the Fake News wants you to believe".

Golly gee - guess what.

WaPo

The fast-spreading novel coronavirus is almost certainly killing Americans who are not included in the nation’s growing death toll, according to public health experts and government officials involved in the tally.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention counts only deaths in which the presence of the coronavirus is confirmed in a laboratory test. “We know that it is an underestimation,” agency spokeswoman Kristen Nordlund said.

A widespread lack of access to testing in the early weeks of the U.S. outbreak means people with respiratory illnesses died without being counted, epidemiologists say. Even now, some people who die at home or in overburdened nursing homes are not being tested, according to funeral directors, medical examiners and nursing home representatives.

Postmortem testing by medical examiners varies widely across the country, and some officials say testing the dead is a misuse of scarce resources that could be used on the living. In addition, some people who have the virus test negative, experts say.


Some points:
  1. We're not testing enough
  2. 45* needs us not to know we're not testing enough
  3. Because 45* needs us to believe it's all good, and it's all good because he's doing such a great job
To be clear, this cause-of-death discrepancy happens. A lot.

Death certificates for cancer patients almost never make it obvious that they died of cancer. There's always something like "organ failure due to sepsis", and even though there's also generally something along the lines of "...complications due to a diagnosis of hepatic cancer" or whatever, you have to look past the "actual cause of death" for the underlying condition.

So if you haven't diagnosed COVID-19 in that patient, because you haven't tested that patient for COVID-19 - before or after they died - then you get some statistical results that are less than fully credible.

And again - we don't know where the fuck we're going because we don't now where the fuck we are.

COVID-19 Update

Growth Rates

Cases:
1.08 - World
1.08 - USA

Dead:
1.08 - World
1.13 - USA




Growth Rates are holding pretty steady again, as the spread really begins to shift to Chicago and Detroit and New Orleans etc.

The most troubling thing I've heard lately is that DumFux News has floated the idea that deaths are being inflated in order to hurt 45*.

To me, this is not just another bullshit attempt to deflect and to blame "the evil media" (although there's undoubtedly an element of that in it).

Daddy State Awareness - rule 1:
Every accusation is a confession.

I can't help but conclude Cult45 will be doing everything they can think of to ramp up their normal routines of smearing and punishing people who try to speak the truth about this thing, and that their energies will be concentrated on painting pretty pictures of blue sky and wildflowers - attributing lots of COVID-19 deaths to other causes.

45* signaled as much in the last coupla days by not just saying we're testing the shit out of it, but going on to assert that more testing is spending money where we don't need to spend it.

This is, of course, bullshit.

The countries that are starting to come out from under this thing are the ones who've tested extensively. We've tested less than 1% of our population, which puts us at #44 on the list, and we're still trying to unclog the testing process to clear the backlog.

We have no fucking idea where we are - who has it; who's showing antibodies; who's "in the clear" - nothing. We know nothing yet.

But he wants us up and running again by the middle on May.

Bye, Felicia

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Apr 9, 2020

Andy Borowitz


(The Borowitz Report)

In what he described as a “potentially major breakthrough,” Dr. Anthony Fauci has convinced Donald Trump to attack COVID-19 as if it were an inspector general.

Fauci, who has been frustrated in his efforts to get through to Trump, compared the global pandemic to an inspector general while in a closed-door meeting with the President on Wednesday.

“What do you hate more than anything, Mr. President?” Fauci asked.

“Jim Acosta,” Trump immediately replied.

“O.K., fine. But, besides Jim Acosta,” Fauci said, “it would be an inspector general, right?”

“You’re right, Tony,” Trump agreed. “I hate those losers.”

“Well, think of COVID-19 as the worst inspector general in the world,” Fauci continued. “It’s overseeing everything you do and making you follow the law. It’s keeping you from spending taxpayer money on anything you want. You wouldn’t stand for that, would you?”

Reportedly, Trump appeared shaken by Fauci’s analogy. “Damn it, Tony, when you put it that way, we’ve got to do something about COVID-19,” he said.

Speaking to reporters, Fauci said that he was “cautiously optimistic” that his inspector-general analogy would finally spur Trump to action, but added, “Jared could still screw this up.”

Today's Reminders

Listen up, "Christian conservatives"




BTW - we're gettin' real tired of having to do your fuckin' work for you.

Data Is Beautiful