...you can just shut the fuck up and get the fuck out.
Monday, April 06, 2020
Honor The Warriors
Someone finally got around to it.
There will be a goodly number of memorial-worthy people before we're done, but none have shown their strength of commitment - and honor - more than the people who step up, risking their own lives to help strangers, when they could just as easily follow the example of a fucked up "leader" and try to duck their responsibilities.
MedScape:
Editor's note: Find the latest COVID-19 news and guidance in Medscape's Coronavirus Resource Center.
As front-line healthcare workers care for patients with COVID-19, they commit themselves to difficult, draining work and also put themselves at risk of infection. Hundreds throughout the world have died. Medscape wants to make sure they are not forgotten, and we will update this list as — sadly — needed.
Medscape needs your help to ensure this list is complete. Please submit names with an age, profession or specialty, and location through this form.
A
Isaac Abadi, MD, 90, Founder, Professor of Internal Medicine and Rheumatology, Escuela de Medicina Luis Razetti, Hospital Universitario de Caracas, Miami, Florida
Musa Fath Abadi, age unknown, Emergency Medicine Specialist, Tehran, Iran
Abdullah Abbasi, age unknown, Infectious Disease Specialist, Gorgan, Iran
Luigi Ablondi, 66, Epidemiologist, Former General Manager of the Crema Hospital, Cremona, Italy
Tahmineh Adibi, age unknown, Nurse, Bandar-e Anzali, Iran
Abdel Sattar Airoud, 74, General Practitioner, Piacenza, Italy
Vincenza Amato, 65, Medical Director Responsible UOS Hygiene Public Health of the Department of Hygiene and Health Prevention, Bergamo, Italy
Afshar Amiri, age unknown, Psychiatrist, Tehran, Iran
Abdulshakur Hazhir Amiri, age unknown, Pharmacist, Rasht, Iran
Larrice Anderson, 46, Nurse, New Orleans East Hospital, New Orleans, Louisiana
Hassan Arbab, age unknown, Hospital Staff, Mashhad, Iran
Malik Ashtar, 50, Nursing Staff, Gilgit, Pakistan
Gaetano Autore, 68, General Practitioner, Naples, Italy
Madhvi Aya, 61, Physician Assistant, Emergency Medicine, Woodhull Medical Center, Brooklyn, New York
Saeid Azizi, age unknown, Ophthalmologist, Zabol, Iran
Ramin Azizifar, age unknown, Nurse, Tehran, Iran
B
Samad Babazadeh, age unknown, General Practitioner, Babol, Iran
Israel Bactol, 34, Cardiologist, Philippine Heart Center, Metro Manila, Philippines
Domenico Bardelli, 75, Dentist, Lodi, Italy
Manuel Barragan, 63, General Practitioner, Cordoba, Spain
Kamran Bayat, age unknown, Surgical Technician, Tehran, Iran
Nilufar Esmail Beigi, age unknown, General Practitioner, Tehran, Iran
Anusheh Beikian, age unknown, Obstetrician, Rasht, Iran
Diego Bianco, 47, Paramedic, Lombardy, Italy
Jean-Marie Boegle, 66, OB-GYN, Mulhouse, France
Massimo Borghese, 63, Specialist in Otolaryngology and Phoniatrics, Naples, Italy
Giuseppe Borghi, 64, General Practitioner, Lodi, Italy
Araceli Buendia Ilagan, 63, ICU Nurse, Jackson Memorial Hospital, Miami, Florida
Antonio Buonomo, 65, Medical Examiner, Naples, Italy
Antonino Buttafuoco, 66, General Practitioner, Bergamo, Italy
It goes on for 5 pages.
There will be a goodly number of memorial-worthy people before we're done, but none have shown their strength of commitment - and honor - more than the people who step up, risking their own lives to help strangers, when they could just as easily follow the example of a fucked up "leader" and try to duck their responsibilities.
MedScape:
Editor's note: Find the latest COVID-19 news and guidance in Medscape's Coronavirus Resource Center.
As front-line healthcare workers care for patients with COVID-19, they commit themselves to difficult, draining work and also put themselves at risk of infection. Hundreds throughout the world have died. Medscape wants to make sure they are not forgotten, and we will update this list as — sadly — needed.
Medscape needs your help to ensure this list is complete. Please submit names with an age, profession or specialty, and location through this form.
A
Isaac Abadi, MD, 90, Founder, Professor of Internal Medicine and Rheumatology, Escuela de Medicina Luis Razetti, Hospital Universitario de Caracas, Miami, Florida
Musa Fath Abadi, age unknown, Emergency Medicine Specialist, Tehran, Iran
Abdullah Abbasi, age unknown, Infectious Disease Specialist, Gorgan, Iran
Luigi Ablondi, 66, Epidemiologist, Former General Manager of the Crema Hospital, Cremona, Italy
Tahmineh Adibi, age unknown, Nurse, Bandar-e Anzali, Iran
Abdel Sattar Airoud, 74, General Practitioner, Piacenza, Italy
Vincenza Amato, 65, Medical Director Responsible UOS Hygiene Public Health of the Department of Hygiene and Health Prevention, Bergamo, Italy
Afshar Amiri, age unknown, Psychiatrist, Tehran, Iran
Abdulshakur Hazhir Amiri, age unknown, Pharmacist, Rasht, Iran
Larrice Anderson, 46, Nurse, New Orleans East Hospital, New Orleans, Louisiana
Hassan Arbab, age unknown, Hospital Staff, Mashhad, Iran
Malik Ashtar, 50, Nursing Staff, Gilgit, Pakistan
Gaetano Autore, 68, General Practitioner, Naples, Italy
Madhvi Aya, 61, Physician Assistant, Emergency Medicine, Woodhull Medical Center, Brooklyn, New York
Saeid Azizi, age unknown, Ophthalmologist, Zabol, Iran
Ramin Azizifar, age unknown, Nurse, Tehran, Iran
B
Samad Babazadeh, age unknown, General Practitioner, Babol, Iran
Israel Bactol, 34, Cardiologist, Philippine Heart Center, Metro Manila, Philippines
Domenico Bardelli, 75, Dentist, Lodi, Italy
Manuel Barragan, 63, General Practitioner, Cordoba, Spain
Kamran Bayat, age unknown, Surgical Technician, Tehran, Iran
Nilufar Esmail Beigi, age unknown, General Practitioner, Tehran, Iran
Anusheh Beikian, age unknown, Obstetrician, Rasht, Iran
Diego Bianco, 47, Paramedic, Lombardy, Italy
Jean-Marie Boegle, 66, OB-GYN, Mulhouse, France
Massimo Borghese, 63, Specialist in Otolaryngology and Phoniatrics, Naples, Italy
Giuseppe Borghi, 64, General Practitioner, Lodi, Italy
Araceli Buendia Ilagan, 63, ICU Nurse, Jackson Memorial Hospital, Miami, Florida
Antonio Buonomo, 65, Medical Examiner, Naples, Italy
Antonino Buttafuoco, 66, General Practitioner, Bergamo, Italy
It goes on for 5 pages.
COVID-19 Update
The feeling is that the shutdown and distancing and the overall public information efforts are starting to take hold, but some dire-sounding warnings are coming from the people who know about such things:
WaPo:
Americans are being advised to steel themselves for one of the most agonizing weeks in living memory, as President Trump and his advisers predicted parts of the country were nearing a peak of cases of covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.
The president at Sunday’s White House coronavirus task force briefing hailed numbers from New York showing a one-day decline in deaths while warning of New York and New Jersey, “they’ve really become a very hot zone.”
Still, Trump, along with Vice President Pence, projected confidence not matched by the White House’s medical advisers.
“We’re starting to see light at the end of the tunnel,” Trump said Sunday, even as Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-diseases expert, hedged earlier in the day, saying, “I will not say we have it under control. . . . We are struggling to get it under control.”
note: NYT and WaPo have lifted their pay walls on COVID-19 stories.
And the really shitty kicker is that because of this ridiculous slap-dash bullshit "response", there's no cohesion in the approach to this thing, and so we have the usual Cult45 clusterfuck, but on meth-infused steroids.
NYT:
WASHINGTON — A coroner in Indiana wanted to know if the coronavirus had killed a man in early March, but said that her health department denied a test. Paramedics in New York City say that many patients who died at home were never tested for the coronavirus, even if they showed telltale signs of infection.
In Virginia, a funeral director prepared the remains of three people after health workers cautioned her that they each had tested positive for the coronavirus. But only one of the three had the virus noted on the death certificate.
Across the United States, even as coronavirus deaths are being recorded in terrifying numbers — many hundreds each day — the true death toll is likely much higher.
More than 9,400 people with the coronavirus have been reported to have died in this country as of this weekend, but hospital officials, doctors, public health experts and medical examiners say that official counts have failed to capture the true number of Americans dying in this pandemic. The undercount is a result of inconsistent protocols, limited resources and a patchwork of decision making from one state or county to the next.
Growth Rates
Cases:
1.06 - World
1.08 - USA
Dead:
1.07 - World
1.14 - USA
Sunday, April 05, 2020
COVID-19 Update
Growth Rates
Cases:
1.07 - World
1.01 - USA
Dead:
1.09 - World
1.19 - USA
Straight-line Projection
USA:
Saturday, April 04, 2020
Today's Tweet
I wonder how many "conservatives" watch DumFux News just to jack off to their platoon of blond bombers.
Seems pretty obvious they aren't tuning in to be well-informed.
On the same day
Larry Kudlow said coronavirus was “contained” on Feb. 25th, Trump’s
campaign spox made an even more bold claim.
“We will
not see diseases like the coronavirus come here..and isn't it
refreshing when contrasting it with the awful presidency of President
Obama." pic.twitter.com/O0DDH3Rvkw
—
andrew kaczynski🤔 (@KFILE) April
4, 2020
Today's Brian
Brian Tyler Cohen
Main point - if you knew pandemic held such great potential, you wouldn't have carved down the teams that were in place to:
"inheriting a broken system" only works for the first 12 or 15 months. Cult45 had 3 years to fix it and get ready.
He claims to have "fixed" the military in the first several months.
Main point - if you knew pandemic held such great potential, you wouldn't have carved down the teams that were in place to:
- warn us about a pandemic
- give us a fighting chance to defend against it
"inheriting a broken system" only works for the first 12 or 15 months. Cult45 had 3 years to fix it and get ready.
He claims to have "fixed" the military in the first several months.
3 FUCKING YEARS
COVID-19 Update
Growth Rates
Reminder: this is a straight linear projection, assuming there's nothing being done by people - and nothing working against it at all.
It may be what happens, but it doesn't have to be what happens.
Cases:
1.10 - World
1.13 - USA
Dead:
1.11 - World
1.18 - USA
Reminder: this is a straight linear projection, assuming there's nothing being done by people - and nothing working against it at all.
It may be what happens, but it doesn't have to be what happens.
Friday, April 03, 2020
For The Record
I can't count the times I've done battle with some dipwad "conservative" who insists on shoving everything down the memory hole when it suits their need - which is pretty much all the fucking time.
So, for safekeeping here's a recap of 45*'s attempts to pretend COVID-19 was no biggie, from NYT, David Leonhardt:
President Trump made his first public comments about the coronavirus on Jan. 22, in a television interview from Davos with CNBC’s Joe Kernen. The first American case had been announced the day before, and Kernen asked Trump, “Are there worries about a pandemic at this point?”
Early March
Almost two decades ago, during George W. Bush’s presidency, the federal government developed guidelines for communicating during a public-health crisis. Among the core principles are “be first,” “be right,” “be credible,” “show respect” and “promote action.”
But the Trump administration’s response to coronavirus, as a Washington Post news story put it, is “breaking almost every rule in the book.”
The inconsistent and sometimes outright incorrect information coming from the White House has left Americans unsure of what, if anything, to do. By early March, experts already were arguing for aggressive measures to slow the virus’s spread and avoid overwhelming the medical system. The presidential bully pulpit could have focused people on the need to change their behavior in a way that no private citizen could have. Trump could have specifically encouraged older people — at most risk from the virus — to be careful. Once again, he chose not to take action.
Instead, he suggested on multiple occasions that the virus was less serious than the flu. “We’re talking about a much smaller range” of deaths than from the flu, he said on March 2. “It’s very mild,” he told Hannity on March 4. On March 7, he said, “I’m not concerned at all.” On March 10, he promised: “It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”
The first part of March was also when more people began to understand that the United States had fallen behind on testing, and Trump administration officials responded with untruths.
Alex Azar, the secretary of health and human services, told ABC, “There is no testing kit shortage, nor has there ever been.” Trump, while touring the C.D.C. on March 6, said, “Anybody that wants a test can get a test.”
That C.D.C. tour was a microcosm of Trump’s entire approach to the crisis. While speaking on camera, he made statements that were outright wrong, like the testing claim. He brought up issues that had nothing to do with the virus, like his impeachment. He made clear that he cared more about his image than about people’s well-being, by explaining that he favored leaving infected passengers on a cruise ship so they wouldn’t increase the official number of American cases. He also suggested that he knew as much as any scientist:
I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it. Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.
On March 10, the World Health Organization reported 113,702 cases of the virus in more than 100 countries.
Mid-March and beyond
On the night of March 11, Trump gave an Oval Office address meant to convey seriousness. It included some valuable advice, like the importance of hand-washing. But it also continued many of the old patterns of self-congratulation, blame-shifting and misinformation. Afterward, Trump aides corrected three different misstatements.
This pattern has continued in the days since the Oval Office address. Trump now seems to understand that coronavirus isn’t going away anytime soon. But he also seems to view it mostly as a public-relations emergency for himself rather than a public-health emergency for the country. On Sunday, he used his Twitter feed to lash out at Schumer and Joe Biden and to praise Michael Flynn, the former Trump aide who pleaded guilty to lying to the F.B.I.
Around the world, the official virus count has climbed above 142,000. In the United States, scientists expect that between tens of millions and 215 million Americans will ultimately be infected, and the death toll could range from the tens of thousands to 1.7 million.
At every point, experts have emphasized that the country could reduce those terrible numbers by taking action. And at almost every point, the president has ignored their advice and insisted, “It’s going to be just fine.”
Susan Beachy and Ian Prasad Philbrick contributed research.
So, for safekeeping here's a recap of 45*'s attempts to pretend COVID-19 was no biggie, from NYT, David Leonhardt:
President Trump made his first public comments about the coronavirus on Jan. 22, in a television interview from Davos with CNBC’s Joe Kernen. The first American case had been announced the day before, and Kernen asked Trump, “Are there worries about a pandemic at this point?”
The president responded: “No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”
By this point, the seriousness of the virus was becoming clearer. It had spread from China to four other countries. China was starting to take drastic measures and was on the verge of closing off the city of Wuhan.
In the weeks that followed, Trump faced a series of choices. He could have taken aggressive measures to slow the spread of the virus. He could have insisted that the United States ramp up efforts to produce test kits. He could have emphasized the risks that the virus presented and urged Americans to take precautions if they had reason to believe they were sick. He could have used the powers of the presidency to reduce the number of people who would ultimately get sick.
He did none of those things.
I’ve reviewed all of his public statements and actions on coronavirus over the last two months, and they show a president who put almost no priority on public health. Trump’s priorities were different: Making the virus sound like a minor nuisance. Exaggerating his administration’s response. Blaming foreigners and, anachronistically, the Obama administration. Claiming incorrectly that the situation was improving. Trying to cheer up stock market investors. (It was fitting that his first public comments were from Davos and on CNBC.)
Now that the severity of the virus is undeniable, Trump is already trying to present an alternate history of the last two months. Below are the facts — a timeline of what the president was saying, alongside statements from public-health experts as well as data on the virus.
By this point, the seriousness of the virus was becoming clearer. It had spread from China to four other countries. China was starting to take drastic measures and was on the verge of closing off the city of Wuhan.
In the weeks that followed, Trump faced a series of choices. He could have taken aggressive measures to slow the spread of the virus. He could have insisted that the United States ramp up efforts to produce test kits. He could have emphasized the risks that the virus presented and urged Americans to take precautions if they had reason to believe they were sick. He could have used the powers of the presidency to reduce the number of people who would ultimately get sick.
He did none of those things.
I’ve reviewed all of his public statements and actions on coronavirus over the last two months, and they show a president who put almost no priority on public health. Trump’s priorities were different: Making the virus sound like a minor nuisance. Exaggerating his administration’s response. Blaming foreigners and, anachronistically, the Obama administration. Claiming incorrectly that the situation was improving. Trying to cheer up stock market investors. (It was fitting that his first public comments were from Davos and on CNBC.)
Now that the severity of the virus is undeniable, Trump is already trying to present an alternate history of the last two months. Below are the facts — a timeline of what the president was saying, alongside statements from public-health experts as well as data on the virus.
Late January
On the same day that Trump was dismissing the risks on CNBC, Tom Frieden, who ran the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for eight years, wrote an op-ed for the health care publication Stat. In it, Frieden warned that the virus would continue spreading. “We need to learn — and fast — about how it spreads,” he wrote.
It was one of many such warnings from prominent experts in late January. Many focused on the need to expand the capacity to test for the virus. In a Wall Street Journal article titled, “Act Now to Prevent an American Epidemic,” Luciana Borio and Scott Gottlieb — both former Trump administration officials — wrote:
If public-health authorities don’t interrupt the spread soon, the virus could infect many thousands more around the globe, disrupt air travel, overwhelm health care systems, and, worst of all, claim more lives. The good news: There’s still an opening to prevent a grim outcome. … But authorities can’t act quickly without a test that can diagnose the condition rapidly.
Trump, however, repeatedly told Americans that there was no reason to worry. On Jan. 24, he tweeted, “It will all work out well.” On Jan. 28, he retweeted a headline from One America News, an outlet with a history of spreading false conspiracy theories: “Johnson & Johnson to create coronavirus vaccine.” On Jan. 30, during a speech in Michigan, he said: “We have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five. And those people are all recuperating successfully.”
That same day, the World Health Organization declared coronavirus to be a “public-health emergency of international concern.” It announced 7,818 confirmed cases around the world.
Jan. 31
Trump took his only early, aggressive action against the virus on Jan. 31: He barred most foreigners who had recently visited China from entering the United States. It was a good move.
But it was only one modest move, not the sweeping solution that Trump portrayed it to be. It didn’t apply to Americans who had been traveling in China, for example. And while it generated some criticism from Democrats, it wasn’t nearly as unpopular as Trump has since suggested. Two days after announcing the policy, Trump went on Fox News and exaggerated the impact in an interview with Sean Hannity.
“Coronavirus,” Hannity said. “How concerned are you?”
Trump replied: “Well, we pretty much shut it down coming in from China. We have a tremendous relationship with China, which is a very positive thing. Getting along with China, getting along with Russia, getting along with these countries.”
By the time of that interview, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases around the world had surged to 14,557, a near doubling over the previous three days.
Early February
On Feb. 5, the C.D.C. began shipping coronavirus test kits to laboratories around the country. But the tests suffered from a technical flaw and didn’t produce reliable results, labs discovered.
The technical problems were understandable: Creating a new virus test is not easy. What’s less understandable, experts say, is why the Trump administration officials were so lax about finding a work-around, even as other countries were creating reliable tests.
The Trump administration could have begun to use a functioning test from the World Health Organization, but didn’t. It could have removed regulations that prevented private hospitals and labs from quickly developing their own tests, but didn’t. The inaction meant that the United States fell behind South Korea, Singapore and China in fighting the virus. “We just twiddled our thumbs as the coronavirus waltzed in,” William Hanage, a Harvard epidemiologist, wrote.
Trump, for his part, spent these first weeks of February telling Americans that the problem was going away. On Feb. 10, he repeatedly said — in a speech to governors, at a campaign rally and in an interview with Trish Regan of Fox Business — that warm spring weather could kill the virus. “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away,” he told the rally.
On Feb. 19, he told a Phoenix television station, “I think the numbers are going to get progressively better as we go along.” Four days later, he pronounced the situation “very much under control,” and added: “We had 12, at one point. And now they’ve gotten very much better. Many of them are fully recovered.”
His message was clear: Coronavirus is a small problem, and it is getting smaller. In truth, the shortage of testing meant that the country didn’t know how bad the problem was. All of the available indicators suggested it was getting worse, rapidly.
On Feb. 23, the World Health Organization announced that the virus was in 30 countries, with 78,811 confirmed cases, a more than fivefold increase over the previous three weeks.
Late February
Trump seemed largely uninterested in the global virus statistics during this period, but there were other indicators — stock-market indexes — that mattered a lot to him. And by the last week of February, those market indexes were falling.
The president reacted by adding a new element to his public remarks. He began blaming others.
He criticized CNN and MSNBC for “panicking markets.” He said at a South Carolina rally — falsely — that “the Democrat policy of open borders” had brought the virus into the country. He lashed out at “Do Nothing Democrat comrades.” He tweeted about “Cryin’ Chuck Schumer,” mocking Schumer for arguing that Trump should be more aggressive in fighting the virus. The next week, Trump would blame an Obama administration regulation for slowing the production of test kits. There was no truth to the charge.
Throughout late February, Trump also continued to claim the situation was improving. On Feb. 26, he said: “We’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up.” On Feb. 27, he predicted: “It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.” On Feb. 29, he said a vaccine would be available “very quickly” and “very rapidly” and praised his administration’s actions as “the most aggressive taken by any country.” None of these claims were true.
By the end of February, there were 85,403 confirmed cases, in 55 countries around the world.
On the same day that Trump was dismissing the risks on CNBC, Tom Frieden, who ran the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for eight years, wrote an op-ed for the health care publication Stat. In it, Frieden warned that the virus would continue spreading. “We need to learn — and fast — about how it spreads,” he wrote.
It was one of many such warnings from prominent experts in late January. Many focused on the need to expand the capacity to test for the virus. In a Wall Street Journal article titled, “Act Now to Prevent an American Epidemic,” Luciana Borio and Scott Gottlieb — both former Trump administration officials — wrote:
If public-health authorities don’t interrupt the spread soon, the virus could infect many thousands more around the globe, disrupt air travel, overwhelm health care systems, and, worst of all, claim more lives. The good news: There’s still an opening to prevent a grim outcome. … But authorities can’t act quickly without a test that can diagnose the condition rapidly.
Trump, however, repeatedly told Americans that there was no reason to worry. On Jan. 24, he tweeted, “It will all work out well.” On Jan. 28, he retweeted a headline from One America News, an outlet with a history of spreading false conspiracy theories: “Johnson & Johnson to create coronavirus vaccine.” On Jan. 30, during a speech in Michigan, he said: “We have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five. And those people are all recuperating successfully.”
That same day, the World Health Organization declared coronavirus to be a “public-health emergency of international concern.” It announced 7,818 confirmed cases around the world.
Jan. 31
Trump took his only early, aggressive action against the virus on Jan. 31: He barred most foreigners who had recently visited China from entering the United States. It was a good move.
But it was only one modest move, not the sweeping solution that Trump portrayed it to be. It didn’t apply to Americans who had been traveling in China, for example. And while it generated some criticism from Democrats, it wasn’t nearly as unpopular as Trump has since suggested. Two days after announcing the policy, Trump went on Fox News and exaggerated the impact in an interview with Sean Hannity.
“Coronavirus,” Hannity said. “How concerned are you?”
Trump replied: “Well, we pretty much shut it down coming in from China. We have a tremendous relationship with China, which is a very positive thing. Getting along with China, getting along with Russia, getting along with these countries.”
By the time of that interview, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases around the world had surged to 14,557, a near doubling over the previous three days.
Early February
On Feb. 5, the C.D.C. began shipping coronavirus test kits to laboratories around the country. But the tests suffered from a technical flaw and didn’t produce reliable results, labs discovered.
The technical problems were understandable: Creating a new virus test is not easy. What’s less understandable, experts say, is why the Trump administration officials were so lax about finding a work-around, even as other countries were creating reliable tests.
The Trump administration could have begun to use a functioning test from the World Health Organization, but didn’t. It could have removed regulations that prevented private hospitals and labs from quickly developing their own tests, but didn’t. The inaction meant that the United States fell behind South Korea, Singapore and China in fighting the virus. “We just twiddled our thumbs as the coronavirus waltzed in,” William Hanage, a Harvard epidemiologist, wrote.
Trump, for his part, spent these first weeks of February telling Americans that the problem was going away. On Feb. 10, he repeatedly said — in a speech to governors, at a campaign rally and in an interview with Trish Regan of Fox Business — that warm spring weather could kill the virus. “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away,” he told the rally.
On Feb. 19, he told a Phoenix television station, “I think the numbers are going to get progressively better as we go along.” Four days later, he pronounced the situation “very much under control,” and added: “We had 12, at one point. And now they’ve gotten very much better. Many of them are fully recovered.”
His message was clear: Coronavirus is a small problem, and it is getting smaller. In truth, the shortage of testing meant that the country didn’t know how bad the problem was. All of the available indicators suggested it was getting worse, rapidly.
On Feb. 23, the World Health Organization announced that the virus was in 30 countries, with 78,811 confirmed cases, a more than fivefold increase over the previous three weeks.
Late February
Trump seemed largely uninterested in the global virus statistics during this period, but there were other indicators — stock-market indexes — that mattered a lot to him. And by the last week of February, those market indexes were falling.
The president reacted by adding a new element to his public remarks. He began blaming others.
He criticized CNN and MSNBC for “panicking markets.” He said at a South Carolina rally — falsely — that “the Democrat policy of open borders” had brought the virus into the country. He lashed out at “Do Nothing Democrat comrades.” He tweeted about “Cryin’ Chuck Schumer,” mocking Schumer for arguing that Trump should be more aggressive in fighting the virus. The next week, Trump would blame an Obama administration regulation for slowing the production of test kits. There was no truth to the charge.
Throughout late February, Trump also continued to claim the situation was improving. On Feb. 26, he said: “We’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up.” On Feb. 27, he predicted: “It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.” On Feb. 29, he said a vaccine would be available “very quickly” and “very rapidly” and praised his administration’s actions as “the most aggressive taken by any country.” None of these claims were true.
By the end of February, there were 85,403 confirmed cases, in 55 countries around the world.
Early March
Almost two decades ago, during George W. Bush’s presidency, the federal government developed guidelines for communicating during a public-health crisis. Among the core principles are “be first,” “be right,” “be credible,” “show respect” and “promote action.”
But the Trump administration’s response to coronavirus, as a Washington Post news story put it, is “breaking almost every rule in the book.”
The inconsistent and sometimes outright incorrect information coming from the White House has left Americans unsure of what, if anything, to do. By early March, experts already were arguing for aggressive measures to slow the virus’s spread and avoid overwhelming the medical system. The presidential bully pulpit could have focused people on the need to change their behavior in a way that no private citizen could have. Trump could have specifically encouraged older people — at most risk from the virus — to be careful. Once again, he chose not to take action.
Instead, he suggested on multiple occasions that the virus was less serious than the flu. “We’re talking about a much smaller range” of deaths than from the flu, he said on March 2. “It’s very mild,” he told Hannity on March 4. On March 7, he said, “I’m not concerned at all.” On March 10, he promised: “It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”
The first part of March was also when more people began to understand that the United States had fallen behind on testing, and Trump administration officials responded with untruths.
Alex Azar, the secretary of health and human services, told ABC, “There is no testing kit shortage, nor has there ever been.” Trump, while touring the C.D.C. on March 6, said, “Anybody that wants a test can get a test.”
That C.D.C. tour was a microcosm of Trump’s entire approach to the crisis. While speaking on camera, he made statements that were outright wrong, like the testing claim. He brought up issues that had nothing to do with the virus, like his impeachment. He made clear that he cared more about his image than about people’s well-being, by explaining that he favored leaving infected passengers on a cruise ship so they wouldn’t increase the official number of American cases. He also suggested that he knew as much as any scientist:
I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it. Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.
On March 10, the World Health Organization reported 113,702 cases of the virus in more than 100 countries.
Mid-March and beyond
On the night of March 11, Trump gave an Oval Office address meant to convey seriousness. It included some valuable advice, like the importance of hand-washing. But it also continued many of the old patterns of self-congratulation, blame-shifting and misinformation. Afterward, Trump aides corrected three different misstatements.
This pattern has continued in the days since the Oval Office address. Trump now seems to understand that coronavirus isn’t going away anytime soon. But he also seems to view it mostly as a public-relations emergency for himself rather than a public-health emergency for the country. On Sunday, he used his Twitter feed to lash out at Schumer and Joe Biden and to praise Michael Flynn, the former Trump aide who pleaded guilty to lying to the F.B.I.
Around the world, the official virus count has climbed above 142,000. In the United States, scientists expect that between tens of millions and 215 million Americans will ultimately be infected, and the death toll could range from the tens of thousands to 1.7 million.
At every point, experts have emphasized that the country could reduce those terrible numbers by taking action. And at almost every point, the president has ignored their advice and insisted, “It’s going to be just fine.”
Susan Beachy and Ian Prasad Philbrick contributed research.
Overheard
This is like going through the 1918 Spanish flu and the Great Depression at the same time - with Krusty The Clown as president.
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