COVID-19 Update

World

• New Cases:   547,338 (⬆︎ .71%)
• New Deaths:      7,986 (⬆︎ .47%)

USA

• New Cases:   183,223 (⬆︎ 1.01%)
• New Deaths:      1,414 (⬆︎   .44%)

Since 11-24, the 7-Day Rolling Average (World) has been over 10,000 dead per day.

Since 12-4, the 7-Day Rolling Average has been over 2,000 Dead Americans per day.

In another typical display of shitty politics, Washington has managed to take it all the way up to the brink before figuring out that Americans ought to have a little help once in a while.

WaPo:

Senate majority leader announces approximately $900 billion deal on emergency relief package

Senate leadership announced a bipartisan deal on an approximately $900 billion economic relief package late Sunday afternoon that would deliver emergency aid to a faltering economy and a nation besieged by surging coronavirus cases.

After months of contentious negotiations and seemingly intractable partisan gridlock, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) took to the Senate floor to say that a deal had been finalized and could be quickly approved.

The emerging stimulus package was expected to direct hundreds of billions of dollars in aid to jobless Americans, ailing businesses and other critical economic needs that have grown as the pandemic ravages the country and batters the economy.

“More help is on the way. Moments ago, in consultation with our committees, the four leaders of the Senate and House finalized an agreement. It would be another major rescue package for the American people,” McConnell said. “As our citizens continue battling this coronavirus pandemic this holiday season, they will not be fighting alone.”

Schumer then took to the floor, calling the aid package insufficient but heralding it as a critical measure to “give the new president a boost, a head start, as he prepared to right our ailing economy.”

The House and Senate on Sunday night approved a one-day extension of government funding to allow the final bill text on the relief package to be written. President Trump signed the stopgap measure, preventing a government shutdown.

The legislation includes stimulus checks for millions of Americans of up to $600 per person. The size of that benefit would be reduced for people who earned more than $75,000 in 2019 and disappear altogether for those who earned more than $99,000. The stimulus checks would provide $600 per adult and child, meaning a family of four would receive $2,400 up to a certain income.

Congress would also extend federal unemployment benefits of up to $300 per week, which could start as early as Dec. 27.

The income criteria for the stimulus checks is expected to reflect that of the first round of relief payments sent by the Treasury Department earlier this year.

- it goes on, but suffice to say the Republicans are assholes who believe nobody deserves anything they haven't inherited form their daddies, stolen from their employees, or grifted from the public.

But wait, there's more - the long-anticipated return of the 3-martini lunch.

WaPo again:

The White House also secured a ‘three martini lunch’ tax deduction in a draft of the relief package. Trump has long seized on the tax break as a way to revive the restaurant industry.

The draft language of the emergency coronavirus relief package includes a tax break for corporate meal expenses pushed by the White House and strongly denounced by some congressional Democrats, according to a summary of the deal circulating among congressional officials and officials who are familiar with the provision.

The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe a proposal that had not yet been publicly released.

President Trump has for months talked about securing the deduction — derisively referred to as the “three-martini lunch” by critics — as a way to revive the restaurant industry badly battered by the pandemic.

But critics said it would do little to help struggling restaurants and would largely benefit business executives who do not urgently need help at this time. Some Democrats recoiled at the proposal, though it has also been denounced as ineffective by conservative tax experts as well.

Color me unsurprised. Make America Shit-Faced Again.

The Scam

This could be The Anecdote Fallacy, but the effect seems to be pretty wide-spread.

The Republican TaxScam2017® is a bust - pass it on.

A Disney Princess

Real life Disney Princess Abigail Disney talks about tax cuts and the fact that inflation and the cost of servicing our national debt are rising faster than the increases in wages and employment.

The economy is booming - but not your part of the economy.

This Disney heiress is here to tell you exactly what the 1% did with Trump’s tax cuts pic.twitter.com/k8q67yz7lU

— NowThis (@nowthisnews) October 12, 2018

SuperYachtInvestor.com

John Oliver

April 15, 2018

The ol' Double Irish with a Dutch Sandwich:

We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us.

Today's Buzz

Pointing up some shitty shit that's been flying under the radar.

Confirming Evidence

45* and the GOP lie. A lot. I keep thinking, eventually that's not going to come as any kind of news to anybody. And as soon as I think that, I remember the rubes will never hear anything but what The Ministry of Dis-Infotainment tells them.

WaPo:

• “The entire purpose of this is to lower middle class taxes.” — House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.)
• “Primarily, and priority number one, is middle-class Americans.” — White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders
• “The theme behind this bill is to get middle-class tax relief for most people in the middle class.” — Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Fox News on Tuesday

President Trump was so excited about passing his first major piece of legislation Wednesday that he blurted out that the Republican Party had misrepresented the entire bill, handing Democrats some potentially troublesome talking points for the 2018 midterm elections.

Speaking at the White House just before the House prepared to sign off on the tax-cuts bill one last time, Trump reveled extensively in his win before turning things over to Vice President Pence to heap praise upon him continuously for a few minutes. It was a thoroughly unique spectacle, even as victory dances and Trump Cabinet meetings go.

But along the way, Trump basically admitted that the GOP's talking points on the bill weren't exactly honest in two major ways.

While talking about the corporate tax rate being cut from 35 percent to 21 percent, Trump said, “That's probably the biggest factor in our plan.”

President Trump says GOP tax plan will lower tax on businesses: “That’s probably the biggest factor in this plan.” pic.twitter.com/ntTtnnD55b

— MSNBC (@MSNBC) December 20, 2017

Oops

This one's worth tracking:
"these companies...will start pouring into the country..." (jobs jobs jobs - and raises for everybody - yeehaw)

Trump's second admission was about the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate being repealed in the bill. Apparently eager to argue that this constituted his having cut taxes and slain Obamacare in one fell swoop (after Congress came up short on Obamacare this year), he argued that repealing the individual mandate was basically the same as repealing Obamacare.
So we have enormous corporate powers being given more money to spend on Coin-Operated Politicians, who are increasingly obliged to strip out protections of the law in order to accommodate the avarice of the American Aristocracy - at the expense of everyone else.

(And BTW - wanna talk about what happens with expanded Corporate Power, together with no ACA, together with HR 1313, proposed in March 2017, that says companies can require DNA - and health info on all family members - from all of it's employees? Wait til you see what that one costs ya.)

In the First World of Industrialized Nations:
Every country except the US has some form of Single Payer
Every country except the US has a sizable Labor Faction in government
Every country except the US has Anti-Climate Change policies in place
Every country except the US has sensible Gun Safety laws
And on and on and on

American Exceptionalism just ain't what it used to be.

TaxScam 2017

These tax cuts don't work because the numbers don't work. Because the numbers never fucking work on these things.

WaPo:

Republicans would no doubt counter that any time you reduce taxes, you increase the incentives for work. But it’s important to remember that if you’re a regular wage-earning American, this bill is as likely to increase your taxes as decrease them. According to the Joint Committee on Taxation, Congress’ official scorekeeper on tax issues, every income group under $75,000 a year will on average see a tax increase by 2027. And while many of tax cuts that individuals at lower incomes might benefit from phase out over the course of the next decade, the cuts that most help corporations and the wealthy are permanent. All that is why, as Ryan Grim points out, while the bill has a net cost of $1.5 trillion, it actually cuts $6 trillion in some taxes but increases taxes in other ways by $4.5 trillion.

To be fair, the tax code already favors investments over work; Republicans merely want to reinforce and extend that characteristic. While they often lecture about the “dignity of work” when they’re proposing to take away safety net programs that aid those in need, they are doing little or nothing to change the tax code so that it does more to encourage work. Right now, wage income (i.e., money you work for) gets taxed at a higher rate than investment income (i.e., money you make when your money makes you more money). The salutary effects of labor on an individual’s spirit apparently only operate on the grubby lower classes, while the wealthy should be honored and rewarded for their ability to watch their portfolios grow.

Everything we do in government - everything we support our government for doing - is a statement of our values. And we need to dig a lot deeper into what we think we're supporting. There are no simple 10-word answers.

We deserve a closer look. We have the right to know everything that's in every bill under consideration.

When the GOP (eg) huddles in private and pushes for a vote with no hearings and no disclosure, we're being treated like serfs - like we only have the right to agree and obey. We are not being well-served.

It's dismissive and condescending and disrespectful.

There's no honor in it.

Today's GIF

TaxScam 2017 is alchemy. It doesn't work. The only way it could possibly do what they say it'll do is if it drives a solid 3% GDP growth - which is something a tax cut plan has never done. 

So the GOP must have discovered some amazing missing piece of the puzzle - a secret ingredient - and I think I know what it is.

Something Happened

Once upon a time, I thought Chuck Grassley (R-IA) was more or less a decent fellow, but something's gone horribly wrong. And I don't think it's all about my own political evolution - it seems pretty obvious that something short-circuited in that guy's head.

Grassley became one of the main peddlers of the Death Panel bullshit back when ACA was being debated.

He chairs the Senate Judiciary Committee, and effectively blocked the Garland appointment simply by following Mitch McConnell's lead and announcing that he'd spend almost a year ignoring it.

Now we can add this one to the hi-lites:

The Hill:

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said he favors repealing the estate tax, which the Senate tax reform bill does not do, saying it "recognizes the people that are investing," The Des Moines Register reported Saturday.

“I think not having the estate tax recognizes the people that are investing, as opposed to those that are just spending every darn penny they have, whether it’s on booze or women or movies," Grassley told the newspaper.


It fits the pattern though. Faux Conservatives have preached the gospel of deprivation for decades.  Mostly it translates for the rubes this way: "As long as those undeserving poor people (aka Black Folks, mostly) get less than me, I'm willing to make the sacrifice."

But there's something that's coming through louder and more clearly lately, and it grows out of that core belief that struggle makes you stronger.

We've become conditioned to believe great people are always made to suffer. We project that onto these upper crust individuals to the point where we simply assume a Donald Trump (eg) has suffered as well. Suffering makes you great. Trump is great. So Trump must have suffered. We don't see an Aristocracy of Inherited Entitlement at work here because that's not how we grow up understanding the American ideal.

The unintended lesson is that great people have been made to suffer, so it's the suffering itself that makes you great. 

With that in mind, some folks end up going out of their way looking for "leaders" who promise them more suffering, thinking it gives them a shot at becoming great (ie: rich and powerful), when all that's really going on is that they'll get another chance to empty their pockets in exchange for feeling superior to all those moochers who just want free stuff.

"I've worked hard all my life - I ain't got jack shit, but by god I earned it"

Banging Our Heads

I was honestly thinking Collins and Flake (and maybe McCain) would hold out against this monumental fuckery dressed up to look like Tax Reform.

And maybe there's still some hope that it'll crap out in conference - but it's looking pretty sure that the "GOP moderates" are completely spooked now.  They're finally hearing some very strong resistance from their Dem constituents, and putting that together with the usual shit they get from the wingnuts, they're finding out how toxically untenable the squishy middle can get.

Sometimes, there just aren't two sides.

Susan Collins said she was able to vote for the thing because she got assurances that no Medicare cuts would be triggered by the bill. Of course, there's nothing that says they won't just do it by other means. And there's nothing there about Medicaid or Social Security.

Flake said he voted for it because they promised him not to fuck with DACA, and he got a an $85 billion gimmick eliminated.  Again - a promise? to guy who won't be in the Senate this time next year? And $85 billion - wow, almost one whole percent. Great. Way to go, Jeff. Way to hang tough on a Budget Neutral stance (that turns out to be nothing but posturing bullshit).

McCain's getting skewered with this kinda thing (that I've seen pop up on FB and Twitter several times in several iterations): "John McCain has his cancer treatment paid for by the people whose healthcare coverage he just voted to eliminate".

These are difficult decisions being made under ridiculous political circumstances, but unfortunately, these are not particularly honorable people.

Today's GIF

Here's Steve Scalise applauding the latest version of legislation that we can file (as usual) under the heading of I-Got-Mine-So-Fuck-The-Resta-Y'all.

Looking forward to when the stories emerge - about the tactics and threats and promises necessary to get this piece of shit passed.

Today's Tweet

"...solve for middle income..."

Malarkey - the only thing they're trying to solve is the problem of getting us to say "thanks for the hat" while they shit on our heads.

Trump WH adviser Cohn on tax bill: “the whole trickle down is good for the economy.” my @cnbc Speakeasy interview https://t.co/AWAQ1d0fRN

— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) November 9, 2017

 

Charlie Pierce

Esquire's Charlie Pierce:

The only things one can be sure of regarding whatever it is that the Republican congressional majorities come up with for a tax plan is that it will shove more of the nation’s wealth upwards, that the math will be mostly magical thinking, and that there will be various strategies employed to keep the country from noticing these first two characteristics. From Politico, we learn that, yes, the Republicans are pretty much a mess on this front, too.
-and-

Look at this mess. Speaker Paul Ryan, the zombie-eyed granny starver from the state of Wisconsin, who is perhaps the worst legislative politician since the Five Minutes of Bob Livingston passed into history, desperately needs this win. Passage of this tax bill is the only reason he’s put up with the antics out of Camp Runamuck at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue. But, unfortunately, those pesky 2018 midterms have put the gallows in everyone’s eyes, especially Ryan’s.
And let's not ignore this from some polling a coupla months ago:

It Sounds Familiar

Way back in the old days, if the boss wasn't pretty watchful, one of the pranksters would sneak onto the mainframe and start some weird shit thing like:

10 PRINT TO SCREEN: HELP ME - I'M STUCK IN AN ENDLESS LOOP
20 GO TO: 10

And the terminal would eventually lock up and the supervisors would get all pissed off and we'd laugh and laugh cuz it'd take a good 20 minutes to clear the memory partition and restart the sector - or whatever magic the uber-nerds did to get it all back up and runnin'.

And somehow, we didn't know we were just being assholes.

Well, now we seem to have kinda the same thing going on in certain sectors of our politics.

We gave a lot of money to rich people to fix the economy, but it didn't work

So we gave a lot of money to rich people to fix that, but it didn't work

So we'll give a lot of money to rich people and see if that works

And somehow, they don't know they're just being assholes.

Something's Wrong With Kansas

...and it seems to have everything to do with a "philosophy of governance" based on a deep and abiding hatred for government.

From the OP/ED page of The Wichita Eagle:

It seemed like a good idea at the time – a two-year budget cycle enabling lawmakers to “budget the first year, do oversight the second year,” as Gov. Sam Brownback put it a year ago. But a lot of unfinished fiscal business will greet Brownback and the 2014 Legislature next week.

In some cases, the state has no choice but to act.

For example, Brownback vetoed the entire 2015 budget for the Kansas Department of Corrections last summer rather than see it take a $10 million cut. In his veto message he said he looked “forward to working with the 2014 Legislature in finding the department sufficient resources to ensure public safety is not imperiled.”

Because statewide property-tax revenue has been lower than expected but K-12 enrollment is up, state funding for public schools is estimated to be $17.8 million less than the 2013 Legislature intended for the current fiscal year and $19.9 million short for 2015, the Lawrence Journal-World reported last month. The Legislature needs to offset the shortfall.

So your state's kinda flat-on-its-ass broke and Moody's downgraded your credit rating, but you guys just go right on believing Oz is out there waiting for you, and all you need is a few more tax cuts to get you up over that rainbow.

It's bullshit, guys - your premise is bullshit.  St Ayn says very clearly that when your premise is false, your conclusion cannot be true.

Less Tax Revenue ≠ More Tax Revenue.

And just as a BTW, this little problem was not unforeseen.  Here's a piece in Christian Science Monitor from more than a year ago:

Kansas Governor Sam Brownback (R) and the GOP-controlled legislature are struggling to accomplish two goals: They want to repeal the state income tax but need to balance a budget that, despite substantial spending cuts, faces a $700 million shortfall.

It is no easy trick. Their solution: new net short-term revenue increases accompanied by a promise to phase out the state’s income tax. This year’s final budget agreement includes both spending cuts and about $300 billion in new sales and income tax revenue that promise to balance the fiscal year 2014 books. But over the next five years, those new revenues will be overwhelmed by a proposed 20 percent cut in individual income tax rates, setting the stage for annual budget crises.

But y'know, it's the teacher's unions and all those other free-loadin' public employees.  That's the real problem.  Those rotten career bureaucrats - it's their fault cuz they don't really do anything (except make it all run as well as can be expected when they're perpetually short-handed, underfunded and generally treated like a squad of scullery maids).  But hey, they just don't understand Supply Side Economics; and that's because they don't wanna understand.  They insist on believing there's something noble and dutiful about serving the public - they're totally in conflict with the New Paradigm so fuck 'em; who needs 'em anyway?

"Conservatives" have been sellin' us this junk for a very long time.

That Tax Cut Thing

Don't like the message?  Make it disappear and then slam the messenger.

Addicting Info:

On September 14th, the Congressional Research Service published their long anticipated study on the correlation between the tax rates and economic growth from 1945 to today. If you go to their website today, however, the report is mysteriously missing.

Before it vanished, the New York Times downloaded a copy, which they now offer on their website. When you read the report, the reason for the pull might be as simple as what the report discovered.

Hey, Willard

About that tax plan.  If you cut taxes 20% across the board, but you make it not add to the deficit by eliminating loopholes and deductions; uhmm, isn't that the same as saying you're gonna pay for your tax cuts by raising taxes?

And if the whole thing is revenue-neutral anyway, maybe we could just not fuck with it in the first fuckin' place.

Thank you.

Dueling Tax Plans

Questions?

Beating A Dead Horse

Sometimes you just have to keep going over the same ground, and revisiting the same arguments ad nauseum just to stay even with the epidemic of ignorance in the American Body Politic.

Repubs in general, and their PseudoCon wing in particular, just refuse to let go of their fairy tales.  Especially the one about "Tax Cuts Generate More Tax Revenue By Creating More Tax Payers".

Simply put, this is total bunkum.  I know this because while I generally kinda suck at Math, I can manage some basic arithmetic, which is what the TeaBaggers (eg) like to believe is all they need to make their "common sense" judgements on tax policy.

So here it is:
Bush Tax Cuts 2001 - 2011 (remembering that Obama agreed to extend them thru 2012)
Conservative estimates say these cost us about $800,000,000,000.00; or about $80 Billion/Year.

If each job created by the Bush Tax Cuts pays an average of $30k per year, then the Feds collect about $6,000.00 in taxes.

So, if we divide $80 Billion (cost) by $6,000 (revenue), we need to have created more than 13,000,000 jobs per year, which means we needed to have added over 1,000,000 jobs per month in the last 10 years.  When was the last time this economy showed a net increase of a million jobs in any month in the last 10 years?  When was the last time we showed an increase of a million jobs in any quarter?

But, let's back up a little and say that I'm using wacky numbers and that my calculations are just way off the mark.  OK; for grins and giggles, let's say I'm off by huge margins.  Let's say the cost is only half of what I'm citing, and that the jobs created are paying 50% better than $30,000 a year.

Now we've got a cost of $40 Billion per year divided by revenues of $9,000, which means we only needed 370,000 new jobs per month over the last 10 years.  Again, when was the last time we had a string of jobs reports that said we'd added 370,000 new jobs for any number of months in a row?

Reality: In the 118 months of W Bush and Obama, we've averaged a net increase of 17,144 jobs per month.  I don't care how you look at it, a decade of deep tax cuts has failed to produce what the proponents of this policy promised us.  We have to find it in ourselves to admit that it's a failure and that it belongs in the dumpster with The Great Society and The Domino Theory and a whole host of others that sounded good, but turned out to be little more than political flim-flam.

Fair warning: From here on out, if you try to float this shit by me, I will not preface my remarks by starting off with, "I'm sorry but..."  I will straight-up call you stupid to your face, and I really don't care what else happens.

Now I'm Really Confused

Somehow, Obama's "total cave" on the tax cut deal is being spun as a win for him because it's touted as a huge new stimulus thingie.  Hard to imagine just how much of this I don't get.

But maybe there's some element of truth in it.  15 years ago, we figured Clinton must be doing something right because everybody was pissed at him for practically everything he did.  Of course, a good bunch of the things he did came back around to bite us all in the ass, but that's another rant altogether.

So, I guess if even Chuckles Krauthammer says the Repubs are the ones who got rolled, we're just supposed to believe, shut up  and go on about our business.

I try to pay pretty close attention, and I think I'm a fair hand at picking my way thru the sales pitch to find the difference between what a politician says and what actually happens, but like I said, I just don't seem to be gettin' it lately.  Our little experiment in self-governing has gotten so twisted and complicated, that it's nigh on to impossible for anybody on the outside to know what's really going on.  And I'm not convinced that more than a handful of people on the inside know a lot more than the rest of us.

I'm still waiting.