Feb 15, 2022

COVID-19 Update




WaPo: (pay wall)

Vaccine scientists have been chasing variants. Now, they’re seeking a universal coronavirus vaccine.

Volunteers are rolling up their sleeves to receive shots of experimental vaccines tailored to beat the omicron variant — just as the winter coronavirus surge begins to relent.

By the time scientists know whether those rebooted vaccines are effective and safe, omicron is expected to be in the rearview mirror. Already, mask mandates are easing. People are beginning to talk about normalcy.

The disconnect highlights the exhausting scientific chase of the last year — and the one that lies ahead. And it underscores a more pressing, overarching conundrum: Is chasing the latest variant a viable strategy? Instead of testing and potentially deploying a new shot when a new variant pops up, what if a single vaccine could thwart all iterations of this coronavirus and the next ones, too?

By now, rebooting vaccines to match a new variant is becoming part of scientific muscle memory. Drug companies made vaccines to fight beta, delta and now omicron. None of those shots have been needed yet, but to many scientists, it is a short-term, shortsighted and unsustainable strategy.

“You don’t want to play this whack-a-mole approach,” said David R. Martinez, a viral immunologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. “This could go on forever.”

The original shot has held up remarkably well, but there’s no guarantee how it will fare against the next variant. Scientists like Martinez want to end the cycle of catch-up.

They are inventing vaccines designed to foster broad protection — an immunity wall that will repel not only the variants of SARS-CoV-2 that we know about, but those yet to emerge.

At minimum, the world needs a truly variant-proof vaccine. Even better would be a shot that would also stop a future pandemic, protecting against a yet-unknown coronavirus that will jump from animals into people in the years to come.

Some experts have questioned why there isn’t already an Operation Warp Speed for these universal vaccines.

Anthony S. Fauci, President Biden’s chief medical adviser, stresses the need for patience, along with urgency. There are scientific gaps needing to be filled to build a vaccine that is broadly protective and lasts a long time — and the National Institutes of Health last fall awarded $36 million to groups trying to answer basic questions.

“You shouldn’t confuse the rapidity and the ease with which we developed a coronavirus vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 with the extraordinary obstacles you might face in trying to get a vaccine that protects” more broadly, Fauci said in an interview with The Washington Post. “There’s a lot of scientific discovery that needs to go into that.”

Privately, though, scientists say Fauci is urging them to hurry up.

“I worry about chasing variants, because there’s always going to be a new variant,” said Drew Weissman, a vaccine pioneer and immunologist at the University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine who is working on a pan-coronavirus vaccine. “Right now, every six months they pop up, but they’re going to pop up until the world is vaccinated.”

‘More tricks’

Flush with the success of the first vaccines, many scientists working on next-generation shots had been thinking big in 2021. Maybe they could make a vaccine that would repel not only SARS-CoV-2 and the original SARS, but also two coronaviruses that cause the common cold, Middle East respiratory syndrome, as well as future bat coronaviruses that could jump into humans.

A New England Journal of Medicine study last year demonstrated that, at least in concept, it was possible to generate broad immune protection against many viruses. Researchers in Singapore showed that survivors of the original SARS outbreak two decades ago who were vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 produced antibodies capable of blocking an array of variants and other coronaviruses.

But making a single vaccine that works against such a wide range of viruses is tricky, and the beta, delta and then omicron variants recalibrated some of that sweeping ambition.

“When SARS-CoV-2 first emerged, it was a virus with very few tricks, and so we were very successful,” said Dennis Burton, chair of the department of immunology and microbiology at Scripps Research Institute. “But it’s acquiring more and more tricks, basically, and so it’s more and more difficult to deal with — you’ve got to be more precise with the antibody you induce through your vaccine.”

Before developing a vaccine to stop the next pandemic, it became clear that a more modest goal — a variant-proof vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 — may be needed to help end this crisis.

“Omicron really has pointed us to say, ‘Hey, we’re not out of this epidemic, yet, and we don’t know what the future holds with this epidemic.’ We need to focus on what the next outbreak might be, but also make sure we’re covering any variant … that would come up in the next three to five years,” said Barton Haynes, an immunologist and vaccine expert at Duke University School of Medicine.

Omicron broke through our vaccines. How can we adapt?

Coronavirus cases spiked globally in the first weeks of 2022, despite record-high vaccination rates. Here’s how the omicron variant took off. (Jackie Lay, John Farrell/The Washington Post)

In the short-term, Haynes’s team is focused on stopping variants. They are manufacturing a vaccine — a nanoparticle with a fragment of the spike dotting its surface. In animal studies, that vaccine triggered broad immune protection against variants, the original SARS virus and bat coronaviruses. Haynes hopes to begin testing it in people this year.

Results are expected soon from the first human tests of a different “pan-SARS” vaccine developed by scientists at Walter Reed Army Institute of Research. In early studies, they have also shown to provide broader protection than the first-generation shots. It consists of a many-sided nanoparticle dotted with the spike found on the original version of the coronavirus that emerged in Wuhan, China.

Vaccines teach the immune system to recognize a virus. They often do this by presenting a version of the virus — which simply could be a telltale feature, such as the spikes on the outside of the coronavirus. The power of these new vaccines stems from which feature they show and how they present it. Virus fragments are assembled onto many-sided nanoparticles, resembling the way the spike might look on the surface of the virus itself — an approach that helps focus the immune response.

“The immune system has evolved to respond strongly to repetition. Viruses have repetitive arrays of proteins on their surfaces,” said Neil King, a University of Washington biochemist with another variant-proof vaccine candidate in human trials. “That’s why nanoparticle vaccines work better, is that they present the antigen as a repetitive array, to provoke that strong response.”

‘It’s worth trying’

The first versions of coronavirus vaccines were powerful, but simple. They took spiky proteins from the outside of the virus that emerged in 2019, tweaked them to keep the spikes in the right shape — and presented those spikes to the immune system.

The next-generation vaccines, the ones built to stop future pandemics, will probably require greater sophistication.

Martinez is working on a vaccine at UNC that shows the immune system “chimeric” spikes. Like the chimera creature of Greek mythology — with the head of a lion, the midsection of a goat and the rear end of a serpent — these vaccines use spikes patched together from fragments of different coronaviruses. A piece from SARS-CoV-2, another bit of the original SARS virus and a third component from a bat coronavirus.

Other researchers, like King, are building “mosaic” and cocktail vaccines, which contain other combinations. A tiny particle might be stippled with a key piece of spike proteins from SARS-CoV-2, SARS and two bat coronaviruses, for example. California Institute of Technology researchers created mosaic nanoparticles with fragments from four to eight different coronaviruses.

The precise approach that will form the best universal vaccine is still a matter of scientific debate. But this much is for sure: Updating vaccines every six months isn’t going to be a reasonable — or equitable — way to protect people globally.

“I don’t think the experience with the variants to date, trying to pursue the new variants as they emerge and rapidly generate variant-specific vaccines — I don’t think that is a strategy for the long term, even in high-income countries, and certainly not in less-well-resourced environments,” said Richard Hatchett, chief executive of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, a nonprofit funding efforts to develop variant-proof and universal vaccines.

Discovering that antibodies exist that are capable of recognizing and neutralizing a broad array of viruses is key. But learning how to trigger them to create a shield of protection could be more complicated than it sounds.

It might not be enough that people can generate antibodies to block a variety of coronaviruses. The trick becomes whether a vaccine can generate sufficient quantities to protect people. In HIV, for example, antibodies that block many strains of the always-mutating virus have been isolated in people with long-term infections. But using a vaccine to replicate what nature can accomplish has loomed as the Holy Grail for the field.

In SARS-CoV-2, the spike protein looks a bit like a tree, and rare antibodies that bind to the base of the tree can block a broad array of related coronaviruses in laboratory studies, said Duane R. Wesemann, an immunologist at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston.

“But it’s very low frequency, and if we’re making a vaccine that just does that, we have to see it may not be that easy,” Wesemann said. “It’s not clear we can elicit those special antibodies in high enough levels.”

A universal vaccine will arrive in a more complicated world than the first-generation vaccines encountered. People will have different levels of preexisting immunity, from vaccinations and from infections related to variants.

Scientists do not agree about how previous exposures — known as immune imprinting, or sometimes called “original antigenic sin” — will affect people’s response to new vaccines, for good or bad. One possibility is that new vaccines will create the strongest response to the virus people were originally exposed to, not the newest one. But vaccine designers like Martinez see the potential to exploit this quirk of the immune system as an asset, to focus the response on the right target.

Another scientific issue that remains to be solved is durability. A broad vaccine with protection that fades rapidly might be impractical to use to prevent future pandemics. After all, SARS emerged about two decades ago, and MERS a decade later.

“We’re looking for a tetanus-like shot,” Haynes said. “We all have to get a tetanus shot every 10 years. That would be really terrific.”

The quest for a truly universal vaccine is urgent, but many experts caution that it’s a far different challenge than creating the first-generation vaccines.

“We have been studying influenza viruses more than 70 years, and we are trying to make universal influenza vaccines, and we still haven’t been able to do it,” said Yoshihiro Kawaoka, who is working on a pan coronavirus vaccine at the University of Wisconsin at Madison. “But this is a different virus, and I think it’s worth trying. What I’m trying to say is that it may not be easy.”

The Ukraine Thing


On the one hand, if Putin wanted to do the thing, he woulda done the thing.

On the other hand, if he actually does the thing, then he has to do it all the way - there can be no half-measures. The invader has to win completely, while the defender just has to survive.

Conquest-n-occupation is a ridiculously expensive enterprise, and I don't see the Russian economy being able to sustain it. Especially considering how badly it's been hollowed out by crooked oligarchs. Maybe Putin can keep those guys in line and make them pony up, and maybe he can't. Maybe one of the things that's holding him back is the fact that they're all so thoroughly entrenched in money laundering through western banks that the sanctions Biden has outlined will bite hard enough to deprive Putin of the funding he has to have to keep his forces deployed.

I dunno.

What seems obvious to me is that Putin is doing the typical Daddy State asshole thing - he's working hard to convince everybody he's willing to go absolutely crazy in an effort to get us to behave stupidly and give him what he wants.

But again - I dunno.

David Ignatius - WaPo: (pay wall) - looking for that middle ground, which indicates he has no better idea about what's happening that I do. We'll see.

Opinion: Does Putin want a diplomatic solution in Ukraine? It’s not looking that way.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Ukrainian saber dance continued Monday, with his top aides suggesting the possibility of diplomacy and de-escalation even as Russian troops remained poised for attack on the border of Ukraine.

Will he or won’t he invade? Putin loves to keep the world guessing. Biden administration officials, knowing they can’t read Putin’s mind, continue to prepare for both possibilities — a Russian invasion or a round of diplomacy.

Monday’s contradictory signals illustrated the strange shadow play of the Ukraine crisis. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Putin in a televised meeting that diplomatic possibilities were “far from exhausted” and recommended “continuing and intensifying them.” And Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that some of the “exercises” that have sent more than 130,000 Russian troops toward attack positions would be ending soon.

Yet U.S. intelligence detected no signs Monday of de-escalation on the ground. Instead, some Russian units continued to move forward. And the Russian news agency TASS quoted the leader of a Russia-backed separatist enclave in eastern Ukraine, saying that the situation was “unstable” and Ukrainian “professional saboteurs” might be preparing to attack. That sounded like a version of the “casus belli” that Russia seeks.

Putin seems convinced that this ever-intensifying war of nerves is helping Russia. But White House officials believe this tactic may be backfiring in two ways: Some Russian officials, uncertain of Putin’s endgame, are questioning his brinkmanship; and Western nations, unsettled by Russian bullying, are rallying around a NATO alliance that seemed depleted just two years ago.

The Biden administration may be overly optimistic about a crisis that could still be in its early stages. But officials believe that Putin’s threats have made U.S. allies in Europe and Asia recognize the importance of U.S. leadership and military power, galvanizing partnerships abroad that the Trump administration severely weakened. Officials see Putin’s actions as a wake-up call for the West — and in that sense, a big strategic boost for what had been a sagging United States.

For the Biden administration, the underlying puzzle in the Ukraine crisis is what might be called the “Putin factor.” The Russian leader turns 70 this year. He has the military power to flex his muscles and burnish his legacy by regaining a piece of the old Soviet Union. Putin operates in such isolation that foreign visitors sometimes aren’t allowed to see him; instead, some are instructed to fly to Moscow and talk by a dedicated landline to the invisible, unapproachable Kremlin leader.

U.S. officials believe that some of Putin’s advisers see danger ahead if Putin invades but they aren’t able to get this message to the boss. The sanctions that would follow an assault on Ukraine would make it hard for Russia to sell its energy abroad or to buy the technology it needs to supply its defense industry, let alone the rest of the economy. Russia’s financial reserves are large, but they would quickly be depleted as it sought to bolster its currency and pay its bills. U.S. officials reckon that under sanctions, Russia would be starved of inputs, and China, its only major ally, couldn’t fill the gaps.

President Biden has looked for a pathway for Putin to back away from this crisis. In a phone call Saturday with the Russian leader, Biden is said to have countered Putin’s claims that the West doesn’t address his security concerns by summarizing the ways America is prepared to discuss shared stability for Europe. To Putin’s insistence that the United States ignores Russia’s “red lines,” Biden counseled continued dialogue. The leaders talked about follow-on meetings, but no real channel for discussion has opened yet.

An impasse remains on Putin’s fundamental demand for a NATO guarantee that Ukraine won’t ever become a member. A statement by Ukraine’s ambassador to London that Kyiv was ready to give up its aspirations for NATO membership was quickly disavowed Monday by President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government in Kyiv. But even on this question, formulas may be found to finesse the difference — stating the widely understood reality that Ukraine won’t join NATO any time soon without formally guaranteeing it.

Putin’s course may already be set for Kyiv. It’s hard to imagine that he has moved a vast army to the Ukraine border twice in the past year, only to retreat. Only Putin knows what he will do next in this self-created crisis. But even he can’t answer the classic question: Tell me how this ends?

The basics - as always:
  1. Ukraine gets to decide what Ukraine does, not Putin
  2. NATO gets to decide what NATO does, not Putin
  3. We all get to decide what we do - NOT VLADIMIR FUCKING PUTIN
Better men than Putin have been trying to conquer the world for 10,000 generations, and the world remains undefeated.

I just really don't understand why these assholes can't stop fucking with people, treat everybody fairly, and give us all a chance to live in peace.

Fuck off, Walter.

Today's Quote



Black American History #15

Dr Clint Smith - Crash Course - The Underground Railroad

Feb 14, 2022

Notes From Reality


You don't get to cheer for "Freedom Convoys"
and then turn around and bitch about
supply chain problems and inflation.

Today's Tweet


 

Overheard

Obama's IQ
+
Trump's IQ
=
Obama's IQ

COVID-19 Update



WaPo: (freebie)

Freedom Convoy’-style protests against vaccine mandates reach Europe and beyond

As Canadian officials announced the reopening of a major border crossing blockaded by “Freedom Convoy” protesters, demonstrations against vaccine mandates for cross-border truckers continued to fuel spinoff protests around the world, directing global attention to ongoing frustrations over covid rules as the pandemic stretches on.

Demonstrators were en route to Brussels, where convoys from European countries were expected to converge this week - although warnings from Belgian authorities appear to have kept the rally at bay during Monday morning rush hour. Some groups said they would be arriving by afternoon.

The Canadian demonstrations have also inspired protests and heavy police presence in countries and states incuding New Zealand, France, Australia, Alaska and New York.

Meanwhile, concerns that the protests might disrupt the Super Bowl — Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) suggested truckers should “clog things up” at the sporting event — were allayed. A small group appeared outside the SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, but no major disruptions were reported, and the L.A. County Sheriff’s Department said the gathering was peaceful.

Here’s what to know

It's Confusing

I think the Super Bowl halftime show yesterday was pretty good - and not because "conservatives" hated it. That's a plus, but it's not the thing for me.

I'm not at all a fan of Rap or Hip Hop or whatever the specific genres and sub-genres are called these days, and even though I wasn't paying all that much attention to it - because I've never paid much attention to halftime shows - I managed to perceive some pretty decent musicality on stage. There was some music in that music.

But I'm confused because the consensus seems to be that if you liked it, then according to "conservatives" you're hedonistic and over-sexualized and you're the reason for the downfall of the empire.

But, according to the 18-34 gang, if you liked it, then you're old, and fossilized, and culturally ignorant because - c'mon man - Snoop Dogg?


So, being all typically American and shit, I'll go with that egocentric thing we usually pull out of our asses at times like these, and say I must be doing something right cuz everybody's telling me I'm wrong.

Besides, what do want? You wanna bring back the Rockettes? Elvis impersonators? Up With People?

How 'bout that Disney clusterfuck from 1977?


So get serious here. You're not watching the moon landing. It's the halftime show at a fuckin' football game. You're gonna turn down the TV, crank up the stereo, go take a piss and head outside to share a doobie or throw the frisbee or something.

Today's Today

 Happy Singles Awareness Day