Well Well

Vox:

A majority of Americans, 51 percent, have a favorable view of the Affordable Care Act, the law’s highest mark ever in the seven-year tracking poll; 41 percent said they had an unfavorable view.
--and--

Half of Americans also said they thought they would be better off if Obamacare remained the law of the land, versus 36 percent who thought they would be better off under the Republican bill.

I'll make one radical assumption by saying: Maybe a bunch of the Leftie Purists managed to get their heads outa their asses long enough to stop insisting that "fucked over completely" is somehow better than "fucked over a little (or even a lot)".

The main thing here, Lefties, is that you don't get to prescribe punishment for me in order to pressure me into serving your political goals.

There is nothing good about losing what we gained with Obamacare because it just doesn't go far enough to satisfy your pixie-dusted dreams of unicorns and universality.

There is no silver lining in having 45* as POTUS. Damage is being done to our institutions that will take decades (if not generations) to repair.

So if you think the shit we're going thru now, and the shit yet to come, is all good in the end because it's sure to transform the voting public into good little Liberals, then y'all can go fuck yourself with a horny toad.

Like Mother Blue Gal always tells us:

When you win, you chop wood and carry water.

When you lose, you chop wood and carry water.

(I'll add my bit to the end of that):

When you get some of what you want, but not everything,

You chop the fucking wood and you carry the fucking water.

It Still Ain't Normal

From Brookings:

With the exception of building the wall, majorities of white voters without college degrees lean in the same direction as the overall electorate.

Healthcare is flashing another warning signal. As the debate over repealing the Affordable Care Act (AKA “Obamacare”) has unfolded, public sentiment has shifted from “repeal and replace” toward a strategy of “repair and retain.” In the meantime, the people are holding President Trump and congressional Republicans responsible for the condition of the healthcare system.

In the wake of the failed effort in the House of Representatives to repeal the law, President Trump threatened to leave the law alone and let it self-destruct. But the April Kaiser Family Foundation survey finds that 75 percent of the public wants the president and the Republicans to do what they can to make the law work, compared to only 19 percent who think they should let the law fail so they can replace it later. Moreover, 61 percent say that the president and the Republicans are now in charge and are responsible for problems with the ACA—not President Obama and the Democrats who enacted it.
Quinnipiac Poll:

64 percent of voters oppose building a wall on our southern border.
72 percent oppose lowering taxes on the wealthy.
62 percent oppose removing regulations intended to combat climate change

65 percent believe that climate change is “primarily” caused by human activity

59 percent want the United States to do more to address this problem

68 percent think that we can do so and protect jobs at the same time.

Today's Internet Poll

I voted - and it's an online thing, so there's no accounting for anything, and it's Fox Nation where they can turn on a dime.

At least with this one, the numbers add up - more or less.

Reuters Polling

Reuters Polling Explorer

Today's Tweet

Trump gets negative marks for his handling of foreign policy, immigration, threat of terrorism https://t.co/FlkuBvWD3X pic.twitter.com/1rWmOUF8vW

— Pew Research Center (@pewresearch) February 16, 2017

Breaking News

Yeah - that can't be good.:

Don't Be Fooled

Richmond Times-Dispatch

Democrat Hillary Clinton has opened a 15-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in Virginia among likely voters following the release of a 2005 tape in which Trump bragged about groping women, according to a new tracking survey by Christopher Newport University.

In the CNU survey out Sunday, Clinton leads statewide among likely voters with 44 percent to 29 percent for Trump, 11 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson, 3 percent for independent Evan McMullin and 2 percent for Green Party nominee Jill Stein.

Clinton has more than doubled her advantage in Virginia since CNU released its first tracking poll on Sept. 26.

“It’s crystal clear why the Trump campaign pulled staff out of Virginia this week,” said Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at CNU.

But did you catch that delicate undertone?
44 Hillary
29 Trump
11 Johnson
  3 McMullin
  2 Stein

If it holds - and if it indicates a strategy of the anti-Trump establishment GOP to help the vote-splitting 3rd parties maintain a double-digit total - this opens the shitty little negativity narrative of "Hillary has no mandate - too many Americans don't like her / don't trust her / think she's always lying etc etc etc".

Gingrich and Lott (I think) used the plurality thing against Bill Clinton in the 90s.  There's no reason for me to think we shouldn't expect McConnell and Ryan et al to come out with "Someone has to represent the x% of Americans who didn't vote for Mrs Clinton".

Whatever that percentage actually is, they're likely to do their damnedest to spin it twist it and warp it into something they can pretend is a majority. Just listen for one of their favorite weasel-terms - "the American people" - and know they're simply inviting the inference that they have the majority on their side and those "others" are trying to steal things away from us and blah blah blah.

And here we go again.

Ya heard it here first, kids.

Polling Here At Home

Blue Virginia:

Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton holds a 9 percentage point lead over Republican Donald Trump among likely voters in Virginia (45%-36%), according to The Roanoke College Poll. Libertarian Gary Johnson trails with 7 percent of likely voters, while Independent Evan McMullin and Green Party candidate Jill Stein each garner 1 percent. Ten percent of likely voters remain undecided. In a two-way matchup, Clinton’s lead extends to 13 points (51%-38%). Clinton led by 7 percentage points in the September Roanoke College Poll (44%-37%).

The Roanoke College Poll interviewed 814 likely voters in Virginia between October 2 and October 6 and has a margin of error of +3.4 percent. The poll was conducted after the first presidential debate and prior to both the second debate and the release of the videotape of Donald Trump making vulgar comments about women.

Virginia's looking like a bellwether - a leading indicator kinda thing.  Increasing buzz going on about how If HRC's lead goes up a lousy two points here in The Old Dominion over the next coupla weeks, we could be in for a regular tsunami.

Larry Sabato

Home town hero (as long as he agrees with me of course) Larry Sabato runs a little joint called The Center For Politics at UVa, and he's gotten pretty good at what he does.

Here's a little snapshot of where Professor Sabato thinks we stand right now:

What about the overall picture? As our regular readers know, we’ve been the Rock of Gibraltar when it comes to a Clinton victory. Our first electoral map, issued at the end of March, showed Clinton at 347 EVs to 191 EVs for Trump, and all subsequent maps have maintained those totals — until now. After looking carefully at Nebraska’s 2nd District — Nebraska being, along with Maine, a state that awards one electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district — we’ve decided that NE-2 is leaning toward Clinton. It isn’t much of a lean, and it’s possible that if Trump can tighten up the contest, this one will wobble back to the Republicans. But for the moment, adding NE-2 to the Democrats makes Clinton’s total 348 EVs and Trump’s total 190 EVs. As you’ll recall, Obama carried this district in 2008 but lost it in 2012, so it’s on the margins — yet it also ranks 49th out of 435 congressional districts for percentage of non-Hispanic whites with a bachelor’s degree or higher. Moreover, not only is Clinton investing ad money in Omaha, which also bleeds into the western parts of swing state Iowa, she is also spending actual campaign time in the city, a sign that her campaign believes it can win this extra electoral vote. And did we mention Warren Buffett, a huge Hillary fan, dominates the economic landscape there?

But wait just a durn minute - Tim Kaine made visits to both Idaho and Wyoming, while Trump popped up in a coupla places in Virginia.

Kinda weird, but this is politics, man.  And this time around, it ain't nuthin' like nuthin' that's gone before - even more than usual.

And so, more than ever - don't get happy, Democrats - get busy.  

Some people believe hard that Trump is in the process of using his "campaign" to build a new media empire that he intends to aim at taking over for DumFux News - that's number one.  And number two is that there's not likely gonna be anything close to resembling any kind of movement on a Progressive Agenda unless lotsa Democrats go to DC along with Hillary Clinton.

Yeah yeah, I've said all that before. Tired of it?  Tough shit - I'll be saying it plenty more from here on in. Get used to it.

And this too:

One More Kellyanne Thing

Do the guys who're always bitchin' about Hillary's focus groups know that Trump's new campaign manager is tailoring his message style according to the polls that she gets paid a shitload of money to conduct?

This Just In

So, the Radical Right keeps pissin' and moanin' about how everything's all skewed in Hillary's favor, and they never get an even break (in spite of Mr Barnum's admonishing us never to give them one), and how Trump can't lose in a place like Pennsylvania unless it's rigged and on and on and on.

Well, Breitbart being the stand-up kinda joint they are, decided to spend some money and put a poll of their own in the field, and - oh golly - turns out their hand-picked sample came back with Hillary up by 5 points.

Oops

hat tip = Twitter @taniel

Today's Chart

With today's polls 538's Now-Cast gives Hillary a WHOPPING 78% chance of winning. Last week Trump was at 57%. pic.twitter.com/QjyxBYbiLV

— Mark Elliott (@markmobility) August 1, 2016

Today's Chart

Which is actually another tweet, but anyway - be reassured, but don't be happy and don't get cocky.  GOTV and put as many Blues in office as possible.

CLINTON still leads in our polls-plus model, which adjusts for Trump's convention bounce. https://t.co/zo8rbYw56E pic.twitter.com/J0G2D5PHxK

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 25, 2016

Visual Aids

Hey Look - I'm A Pollster

Google Search Term: "Republicans Suck"
44,300 hits

Google Search Term: "Stupid Republicans"

52,000 hits

Google Search Term: "Democrats Suck"
25,200 hits

Google Search Term: "Stupid Democrats"
26,700 hits

No, I dunno what it means.  They don't pay me to know what it means, they just...wait - they don't pay me.  So of course, it can't mean anything at all.

Never mind.  Everybody go back to sleep.  I'll call ya if anything happens.

Wonder How That Happened

From iSideWtith.com

Try it - you'll like it.  (hat tip = The Agonist)

You can see how you matchup with the candidates:

And you can check how users from networking sites match up:

Yikes

I just hope nobody gets cocky.  This is exactly what certain bad guys wanna see because it makes good pretext for pulling some electoral shit.  ie: "See?  The librul media was in the tank for Obama all along, but the noble conservatives showed 'em what's what."

(hat tip = Democratic Underground)

Mike O'Brien ‏@mpoindc 

Oof. RT @Chris_Moody: New CBS/NYT poll finds Obama leading 53% to 43% in Ohio and 53% to 44% in Florida. 


Josh Marshall ‏@joshtpm 

This mornings new NYT/CBS polls devastating 4 Romney. Obama by 10 in Ohio, 9 in FLA, 12 in PA. http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/pollsters/quinnipiac-cbs-nyt … 


Chris Geidner ‏@chrisgeidner 

NYT: "Mr. Obama is leading Mr. Romney 53 percent to 43 percent" in OH. Bigger in PA, nearly that in FL.http://nyti.ms/Ql07CG 


National Journal ‏@nationaljournal 

Obama has six-point lead in new Bloomberg national poll. http://njour.nl/Sl5qhu 


Michael Tackett ‏@tackettdc 

New Bloomberg national poll +6 Obama. Romney dragged by negative perceptions @juliehdavishttp://bloom.bg/S4c8Jg 



POLITICO 2012 ‏@POLITICO2012 

Quinnipiac's jaw-dropping, eyebrow-raising swing-state numbers http://politi.co/SlxRAh by @aburnspolitico 


Josh Marshall ‏@joshtpm 

Must Read article on how early voting may mean Mitts goose is already half cookedhttp://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/early-voting-swing-states.php … via @TPM

Favorite comment:

A Quickie

Off the top of my head.  Looking at some polling numbers that have Repub Voters ranking their "Leaders" for 2012 (Romney-14%, Palin-11%, McCain-7%, Brown-4%), and wondering if it means anything.  Here's what I came up with:

The first thing that popped into my brain was, how the hell did Scott Brown get in there!?!  But then, I remembered the narrative built up around their successes in special elections - Governors in VA & NJ, and then the race for Teddy's Senate seat.  The repubs were all running around trying to convince us that they were "sweeping towards a Republican resurgence of epic proportion!".  Remember that?  Now, kinda outa the blue, we get Repub Voters tagging Scott Brown as a major force?  I'm thinking the whole 'resurgence' is hollow.  There's a feeling of wishful thinking about it - like they really don't have anything but the rhetoric to hold onto - hoping against hope that somebody will ride in and rescue them from the evil clutches of the Democrats.

The danger - if I'm right - is that the Dems will actually wake up, find their balls, and start acting like a ruling party instead of the public servants they're supposed to be.  But then, that's usually how it works, so I shouldn't be too surprised.

The KOS Poll

Here it is.

Sadly, The South shows up as looking pretty fuckin' stupid.

Non-Reporting

John Amato, over at Crooks and Liars, has this interesting post.