The Temp Is Too Damn High

76 million people in the U.S. may be exposed to dangerous heat today

Dangerous heat is expected to engulf most of the southern United States this week.

The Post is tracking the potential for dangerous heat using the heat index, which accounts for the combined impact of temperature and humidity — the higher the humidity, the more difficult it is for the body to cool itself off through sweating.

Extreme heat kills more people in the United States than any other weather hazard, and the risk of longer and more frequent heat waves is only expected to increase as climate change worsens. Heat disorders such as heat stroke, heat cramps and heat exhaustion are possible with any extended exposure to a heat index at or above 90 degrees.

Heat illness can set in quickly — in as little as 10 to 15 minutes — when your body overheats and can’t properly cool itself off. This can lead to muscle cramps or spasms, heavy sweating, weakness or tiredness, abnormal pulse rate, dizziness, nausea, vomiting, headache, confusion, fainting, loss of consciousness or death.

Look up your city here

Multiple days of extreme heat, including warm nights that don’t allow our bodies to cool down, are especially dangerous. A Washington Post analysis of data provided by the nonprofit First Street Foundation estimated that the average number of Americans experiencing at least three consecutive days of temperatures 100 degrees or higher each year will climb from 46 percent today to 63 percent over the next 30 years.

Urban centers, which have fewer trees, less grass, and heat-absorbing pavement, can be up to 20 degrees hotter than nearby neighborhoods, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The Weather Service issues heat watches, warnings and advisories when extreme heat — generally a heat index of 100 degrees or higher — is expected or imminent. Any watch, warning or advisory in effect for your location can be seen by entering your location into the lookup box at weather.gov.

Infants and children up to four years old, adults 65 years and older, and people who are overweight, ill, or on certain medications are at the highest risk for heat-related illness, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Outdoor workers and athletes are also at greater risk.

The Weather Service recommends wearing light, loose-fitting clothing, drinking water often before you get thirsty, reducing or rescheduling strenuous activity, and staying in air-conditioned places during extreme heat.

These Fuckin' Guys

Republicans have alleged:

The FBI went after conservative parents at school board meetings.

(That’s entirely baseless)

FBI Director Chris Wray, a registered Republican, personally sicced the FBI on conservatives.

(Wray called this “insane”)

FBI has eagerly persecuted Trump.

(The FBI is rule-bound and cautious)

FBI plants incited the Jan6 attack.

(The central evidence of this has collapsed)

Opinion

The MAGA persecution complex is eating itself to death

Stephen K. Bannon, a spiritual leader of the Trumpist right, infamously declared in 2018 that the secret to political warfare was “to flood the zone with s--t.” For many observers, this quote continues to capture the perils of our “post-truth” moment: Our democratic culture remains deeply vulnerable to being swamped by disinformation.

But with Donald Trump out of the presidency and his allies in Congress mired in infighting, we’re now seeing what happens when the zone gets so flooded with excrement that it threatens to drown the MAGA movement itself.

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) chaired a House Judiciary Committee hearing last week that purported to expose the FBI’s “weaponization” against conservatives. But GOP lawmakers floated so many allegations and conspiracy theories that the spectacle devolved into a haphazard, scattered mess with no storylines developed in meaningful depth.

After months of these hearings, it’s painfully clear they lack anything close to the focus of the congressional investigations into the deaths of four Americans in Benghazi, Libya, during Barack Obama’s presidency. As a result, these proceedings are unlikely to produce the political benefits that the Benghazi hearings did.

Blame it on the “MAGA persecution complex” — the vast array of outlets in the right-wing media ecosystem that incentivizes GOP lawmakers to pander to conservative victimization and grievance. It’s feasting on so many claims of persecution that it’s essentially eating itself to death.

At last week’s hearing, Republicans alleged that the FBI investigated conservative parents at school board meetings. (That’s entirely baseless.) They insisted FBI Director Christopher A. Wray, a registered Republican, personally sicced the FBI on conservatives. (Wray called this “insane.”) They claimed the FBI has eagerly persecuted Trump. (The FBI has actually been rule-bound and cautious.) They railed that FBI plants incited the Jan. 6, 2021, attack. (The central evidence of this has collapsed.)

Republicans even insisted the FBI is riddled with anti-Catholic bias based on a field-level memo about radical right-wing Catholics that is indeed problematic. But Wray admitted to a serious error, declaring it subject to internal review. Presenting one example of abuse at a huge agency as proof of another vast conspiracy is silly.

The barrage of these allegations and others — the FBI is covering up President Biden’s bribery, it’s investigating would-be GOP informants, it’s colluding with social media giants to censor conservatives — is dizzying. Storylines eclipse each other before any can gel into something coherent.

“Good oversight may start with a theory, but it gathers facts before reaching conclusions,” Brendan Buck, a former senior House GOP leadership aide, told me. “These committees are starting with conclusions and then trying — and mostly failing — to find facts to support them.”

Republicans are trying to tell one story about the persecution of conservatives that has fractured into a thousand subplots. By contrast, once the GOP-controlled House hit on Benghazi, the focus on that story was far tighter.

Kurt Bardella, a former House GOP communications adviser who has turned on the party, points out that at the time, lawmakers had fewer incentives to seek viral moments by hijacking specific narratives for themselves. Hearings could be more coordinated toward influencing mainstream news coverage.

“Nowadays, if you want to have a moment, you say something outlandish, put it up on social media,” Bardella told me. “All the right-wing platforms will amplify it for you.” That encourages freelance messaging and disunity, he noted.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton — the central character in the Benghazi hearings — was widely distrusted by reporters (to catastrophically unfair effect) at the outset. It’s hard to quantify the impact of those hearings, but a years-long drumbeat about vague corruption, amplified in mainstream coverage, probably took a toll.

Contrast that with today. Yes, the public is sour on the FBI. The agency did make serious mistakes during the Trump years. But voters are being asked to hate a villain that’s far more baroque and insidious than “mistakes were made.” The enemy is either absurdly nebulous (the “deep state”) or fantastical (thousands of federal officers conspiring against conservatives).

It also clashes with how the FBI has long been perceived in mainstream culture, noted Tim Weiner, author of a history of the agency. It’s a “very White, very male, very conservative law enforcement agency,” Weiner told me, and Republicans are trying to portray it as “antifa in a Brooks Brothers suit.”

That’s a tough sell. But as Bloomberg’s Jonathan Bernstein notes, this conspiratorial rhetoric has become party-wide dogma. Repeating it earns party approval, creating a self-reinforcing effect.

Also, mainstream media outlets appear inclined to cover Trump-aligned conspiracy-mongering with more skepticism than the Benghazi hearings. Matt Gertz has detailed for Media Matters that attacks on the FBI have taken on a Keystone Kops quality: New whistleblowers and revelations are forever promised to reporters and never materialize.

Finally, Jan. 6 sharply illustrated the true stakes of the situation: Many on the far right did commit serious crimes against the country. While Trump-loyal Republicans are handwaving it all away, law enforcement is meting out appropriate accountability. This probably inclines news organizations to cover right-wing attacks on law enforcement more harshly than Benghazi.

But no matter: The zone-flooding conspiratorial antics will keep on coming. The MAGA persecution complex requires no less.

Say What, Vlad?

What up here, dude?

Is this another shot at extortion?

Take hostages and maybe the world will overlook the shit you're always trying to pull?

Russia Pulls Out of the Black Sea Grain Deal

The Kremlin terminated an agreement that had allowed Ukraine to export its grain by sea despite a wartime blockade, a deal seen as essential to keeping global food prices stable.

Russia said on Monday that it was ending an agreement that had allowed Ukraine to export its grain by sea despite Moscow’s naval blockade, upending a deal that had helped to keep global food prices stable and alleviate one element of the global fallout from the war.

Ukraine is a major producer of grain and other foodstuffs, and the United Nations secretary general, António Guterres, said he was “deeply disappointed” by the decision. Millions of people who face hunger, or are struggling, as well as consumers around the world facing a cost of living crisis, will “pay a price,” he said.

"Today’s decision by the Russian Federation will strike a blow to people in need everywhere,” he told journalists.

A Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, told journalists earlier on Monday that the agreement was “halted.”

“As soon as the Russian part is fulfilled, the Russian side will immediately return to the implementation of that deal,” he said. He added that the decision was not connected to the attack hours earlier on the Kerch Strait Bridge linking Russia to occupied Crimea. Russian officials blamed Ukraine for the attack, but Kyiv has not taken responsibility.

“Only upon receipt of concrete results, and not promises and assurances, will Russia be ready to consider restoring the ‘deal,’” the statement said.

The agreement, known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative and brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, had been set to expire on Monday following the latest in a series of short-term extensions.

Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said he would speak to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia about the agreement and signaled hope that it could be revived.

“Despite the statement today, I believe the president of the Russian Federation, my friend Putin, wants the continuation of this humanitarian bridge,” Mr. Erdogan told reporters in Istanbul.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said that Moscow had broken its agreement with the United Nations and with Mr. Erdogan, rather than with his country itself, given that Ukraine had made a separate deal with the two mediators over grain. Ukraine demands a complete withdrawal of Russian forces from its territory and an end to aggression before any talks can take place.

“Even without the Russian Federation, everything must be done so that we can use this Black Sea corridor,” Mr. Zelensky said in remarks sent by his press office, adding that Ukraine was ready to restart shipments if the United Nations and Turkey agreed.

The deal successfully eased shortages that resulted from blockades in the first months of the war, which caused global wheat prices to soar. It allowed Ukraine to restart the export of millions of tons of grain that had languished for months, and it has been renewed multiple times, most recently in May. Wheat prices surged on Monday, exposing vulnerable countries to the prospect of a new round of food insecurity.

But Moscow has complained that Western sanctions continued to restrict the sale of its own agricultural products, and sought guarantees that would facilitate its exports of grain and fertilizers. In an effort to extend the deal, Mr. Guterres sent Mr. Putin proposals last week that he said would “remove hurdles affecting financial transactions” through Russia’s agricultural bank.

Ukraine has exported 32.8 million tons of grain and other food since the initiative began, according to U.N. data. Under the agreement, ships are permitted to pass by Russian naval vessels that in effect have blockaded Ukraine’s ports since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. The ships are inspected off the coast of Istanbul, in part to ensure they are not carrying weapons.

Last year, Russia halted participation in inspections that were part of the deal, only to rejoin in a matter of days.

Ukraine

... via today's Beau

Battle of The Bulge (1965) - some fairly decent history in a pretty bad movie.

"Get this message through to headquarters: They've abandoned their tanks, and they're walking back to Germany."

Hunter's Laptop

First - if Hunter Biden broke the law, then Hunter Biden should be held to account and taken down.

Oh, wait - Hunter Biden actually has been found to have broken the law, he's stood before the man, admitted to being a tax cheat, and he's paid us what he owed.

He's also pled guilty to a gun charge (he lied on his background check), which is something that's almost never prosecuted.

BTW #1, I have yet to hear any Republicans squawking about how poor Hunter's 2A rights have been trampled on by a tyrannical government.

OK, but still, he got off easy. What about all the horrible things he's accused of doing in the 2014 - 2016 timeframe? Rudy Giuliani's pal got Hunter's laptop for us and it's just loaded with proof.

BTW #2, some serious questions remain largely unanswered about "the laptop":

• Does it actually exist?
• How was it obtained?
• What about the chain of custody?

I'm not saying there's absolutely nothing to it, and that Hunter Biden is innocent like a spring lamb. I'm betting there is, and he's not.

But I'll bet way more on the obviously dead solid certainty that Republicans have their new Benghazi, and it doesn't matter what the truth is - they're going to flack the fuck out of that one narrow aspect of it, trying to drive Joe's numbers down.

WaPo takes a look at it for us.

Here we go again: An explosive Hunter Biden laptop email needs context

Republican lawmakers expressed outrage last week after Fox News published a 2015 email chain from Hunter Biden’s laptop in which a Ukrainian energy company executive suggested that the “ultimate purpose” of Hunter’s hiring by the company was to shut down investigations of the company’s owner. The email exchange took place about one month before then-Vice President Joe Biden traveled to Ukraine with the express purpose of seeking the removal of the country’s top prosecutor.

Never mind that Tucker Carlson, then a Fox News host, devoted an entire show to this email in October 2020. “Did Joe Biden subvert American foreign policy to enrich his family?” Carlson asked.

The Hunter Biden saga apparently can be endlessly recycled for maximum impact.

“The calm, judicious, steady reveal of incredibly condemning evidence that clearly incriminates the Biden crime family will eventually alarm even the most ardent supporters” of Biden, Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.) told Fox last week.

However, working with our colleagues in Ukraine in 2019, we carefully documented the legal cases involving the energy company, Burisma, and its founder, Mykola Zlochevsky. The information continues to be relevant to assess whether the 2015 email chain provides evidence that Hunter Biden was acting to influence U.S. policy through his father at the time.

Biden and the Ukrainian prosecutor

The email chain is part of 217 gigabytes of data on a hard drive purportedly belonging to Hunter Biden and obtained by The Washington Post from a Republican activist. A small portion of the data, including the chain, was verified by two security experts who examined it for The Post, so we are able to cite these emails and provide links.

On Nov. 2, 2015, Burisma executive Vadym Pozharskyi emailed Hunter Biden, who was a Burisma board member, and two of Hunter’s associates regarding the hiring of a U.S. public relations firm to bolster Burisma’s image.

“I would like us to formulate a list of deliverables, including, but not limited to: a concrete course of actions, incl. meetings/communications resulting in high-ranking U.S. officials in Ukraine (U.S. Ambassador) and in U.S. publicly or in private communication/comment expressing their ‘positive opinion’ and support of Nikolay/Burisma to the highest level of decision-makers here in Ukraine: President of Ukraine, president Chief of staff, Prosecutor General, etc.,” Pozharskyi wrote, using a nickname for Zlochevsky. “The scope of work should also include organization of a visit of a number of widely recognized and influential current and/or former U.S. policymakers to Ukraine in November aiming to conduct meetings with and bring positive signal/message and support on Nikolay’s issue to the Ukrainian top officials above with the ultimate purpose to close down for any cases/pursuits against Nikolay in Ukraine.”

After responding with an email suggesting he wanted “one more conversation” with Blue Star, the PR firm, Hunter Biden told Pozharskyi that he was “comfortable” with Blue Star and “you should go ahead and sign.”

Nine days later, the U.S. Embassy announced that the vice president would be traveling to Ukraine in December to meet with the Ukrainian president at the time, Petro Poroshenko, and members of parliament. Separately during this period, Blue Star indicated it was beginning to engage with U.S. and Ukrainian officials to shape perceptions of the company.

Here’s where the story gets complicated. A key purpose of Joe Biden’s December 2015 trip was to press Poroshenko to remove the prosecutor general, Viktor Shokin, by threatening to withhold $1 billion in loan guarantees. Biden’s pressure eventually led to Shokin’s firing. But whether he was a shakedown artist operating at the behest of his son depends on whether Shokin was viewed as an impediment to investigating Burisma. Shokin has since claimed he was ousted because he was getting too tough on Burisma, but the available evidence shows the opposite is true.

- snip -

The Bottom Line

The available evidence shows that U.S. policy, executed but not developed by Joe Biden, operated independently of his son’s efforts to engage a PR firm to burnish Zlochevsky’s image. Biden’s efforts to oust the prosecutor only plausibly benefited Zlochevsky if Shokin had moved aggressively against Zlochevsky. But documents and interviews instead show Shokin had failed to act — which was a key reason the international community, led by the United States, sought his removal in the first place.

The Worst Of Them

If you're making your state more Business Friendly, but more People Hostile - you might be a Republican.

The bottom 10

Beau Of The Fifth Column

Still Fresh

7 years ago, SNL got it right.

We all knew it was true, but somehow too many of us assumed Trump couldn't possibly win. Hillary would take it, and we'd get to shit on her for four years, indulging ourselves in all the comfortable bitching:

• Democrats don't know how to fight
• they suck at messaging
• they never do enough
• they're lily-livered
• and and and

It'll be the same ol' same ol', and the Press Poodles will enjoy another 4 years of pimping their Both Sides Horse Race bullshit while raking in billions selling lots and lots of ads for dick pills and panty liners, cuz Americans just love 'em some good old WWE-style political theater. And that's all it is, right?

They're coming for it all. If you think you're safe inside your own little bubble because you're the right color and you occupy a niche that fits in with the Daddy State's shitty plans, then you've got your head so far up your ass, even if you open your eyes, all you're gonna see is your own shit.

Stop getting suckered into thinking it'll be OK - we've got "the democracy" to protect us. The checks-n-balances will kick in and save us. No worries - let's go play some golf.

Democracy is not something we have unless it's something we do.

Get up off your ass and help.

Today's Tweet

Coming to us from years ago, when we started to find out just how fucked up Trump's Daddy State League Of Assholes really was.

BTW - they haven't changed. And we can't afford to forget.

E N O U G H !

I’m SICK & TIRED of the bullshit being vomited daily by the racist misogynistic homophobic domestic terrorist organisation masquerading as the Republican Party.

It’s time to stop pussyfooting around with this ‘They go low, we go high’ well intended rebuke. These… pic.twitter.com/beqxyjwhn4

— 𝔗𝔯𝔲𝔱𝔥 𝔐𝔞𝔱𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔰 (@politicsusa46) July 15, 2023

Upside Down And Backwards

Are Republicans trying to turn it all inside out again? Cuz this latest wrinkle sounds a lot like:

"The FBI hates Trump so much, they incited, and then led, an insurrection that was aimed at keeping him in power. But never mind that - THE FBI HATES TRUMP SO WE HAVE TO HATE THE FBI - LET"S GET 'EM !!!!!!!"

It doesn't make sense, but I think that's the point - it's not supposed to make sense.

They need people to look past Jan6 ("It's too complicated - they'll never figure that one out - let's just forget about it and move on") because now the immediate need is to discredit the institutions of law enforcement so the bad guys (ie: Daddy State Republicans) won't be held to account.

The goal is to dictate reality to us.

Friday's Tune

Joshua Turner and Carson McKee

I'll Be Here In The Mornin' --Townes Van Zandt