Jan 12, 2024
Baby, It's Cold
Severe cold will make for icy NFL games in Kansas City and Buffalo and frigid Iowa caucuses. It will also test the Texas power grid.
Stunning cold is crashing southward from the Arctic into the Lower 48 states. It could break hundreds of records this weekend into early next week. The bitter cold will arrive in the wake of another blockbuster storm sweeping the nation.
Want to know how your actions can help make a difference for our planet? Sign up for the Climate Coach newsletter, in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday.
The Arctic blast will produce the planet’s biggest negative temperature anomalies over parts of the western and central United States, in some places up to 60 degrees below normal. It will make for icy NFL playoff games in Kansas City and Buffalo this weekend and frigid Iowa caucuses Monday, and could test the Texas power grid.
On Friday morning, the cold had already begun to invade large parts of the western and central United States. The most extreme cold was in northern Montana, where wind chills plunged as low as minus-60 with actual air temperatures as low as minus-30. Air temperatures plummeted into single digits as far south as southern Kansas and as far east as Minneapolis.
It is poised to turn even more frigid over the weekend.
Wind chills below minus-40 degrees are forecast for much of the northern Plains and northern Rockies. "This will pose an increased risk of frostbite on exposed skin and hypothermia,” the National Weather Service warned. “Have a cold survival kit if you must travel.”
More than 28 million people are under wind chill alerts from eastern Washington state to Missouri.
Many major population centers will endure at least two to three days of severe cold, with temperatures at least 30 degrees below normal and dangerously low wind chills, between the weekend and early next week, including Denver, Des Moines, Minneapolis, Chicago, St. Louis, Oklahoma City and Dallas.
“We call it ‘life-threatening’ for a reason,” wrote the Weather Service office serving St. Louis on X, formerly Twitter. “Temperatures of this magnitude will cause harm if caught outdoors unprepared. Take it seriously. This kind of cold does not happen very often.”
This cold air outbreak is coming off a very mild start to winter, so it will come as a shock. Much of the northern contiguous United States has observed temperatures about five to 10 degrees above average since Dec. 1.
If current forecasts hold, areas home to more than 55 million Americans are expected to drop below zero through next Tuesday. Almost the entire Lower 48 faces temperatures at or below freezing at some point by the middle of next week.
Central U.S. faces brunt of polar plunge
This winter’s coldest air so far had already plunged into the southern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday morning.
Monday's high temperature forecast compared to normal. (weatherbell.com)
By Saturday, most of the northern and central Plains should experience highs below zero and widespread lows of minus-15 or colder.
Havre, a city in north central Montana, is forecast to reach minus-40 Saturday, shattering the record of minus-35 set in 1997. Several other cities in Montana are likely to set records including Helena, which is expected to dip to minus-38, surpassing the calendar day record from 1888. Wind chills could approach minus-60 or minus-70 both, with minus-40 to minus-60 spilling into the northern Plains.
Subzero record lows are a risk as far south as Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. Oklahoma City is forecast to fall to minus-2 on Tuesday morning. From there, the zero-degree line probably extends across northern Arkansas and then toward Indianapolis. Houston may struggle to rise above freezing while much of the South hovers in the 20s on Tuesday.
Locations as far east as the spine of the Appalachians could also flirt with zero Tuesday morning.
McAllen, at the far southern tip of Texas, is forecast to set a record with a low of 28 Wednesday. Gulfport, on the coast of Mississippi could challenge its calendar day record with a low of 17.
In all, hundreds of daily cold records, for lows and highs, are possible from the shores of the Pacific Northwest to the Gulf Coast between Saturday and Wednesday. Cities where record lows are a good bet include Spokane, Wash.; Billings, Mont.; Kansas City, Mo.; Tulsa; and Lake Charles, La.
Texas grid faces a test
With the Arctic air mass sinking into the southern Plains, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) issued a weather watch for Jan. 15 to 17 (Monday through Wednesday) because of the anticipated high heating demand.
Texas’s statewide low temperature is forecast to average around 15 degrees Monday and Tuesday.
The grid is expected to hold, thanks to both increased capacity and the fact that the cold will not be as severe or prolonged as the extreme event in February 2021 when it collapsed.
Frigid for playoff football
Wind chill forecast for Saturday evening during the game in Kansas City. In and around the city, wind chills are forecast to be in the minus-20s to near minus-30. (weatherbell.com)
A wild card weekend kick-starts the playoffs with a throwback to frozen football games of old.
The Weather Service is predicting a high in the single digits in Kansas City on Saturday when the Chiefs host the Miami Dolphins.
The kickoff temperatures will probably be near or below zero before dropping to several degrees below zero in the fourth quarter. Factoring in frigid winds, it will feel like minus-20 or lower. There could be a snow flurry in the air, too.
When the Buffalo Bills face the Pittsburgh Steelers at home Sunday afternoon, fresh snow should be on the ground, and it may still be falling heavily at times from bands off Lake Erie.
A winter storm watch is in effect Saturday afternoon through Monday morning as a foot or more could fall in the most persistent bands. Several inches could accumulate during the game, with temperatures in the low or mid-20s. But it will feel closer to the single digits to near zero as winds gust to 40-plus mph.
Iowa caucuses face intense chill
High temperatures on Monday in Iowa are expected to remain below zero. (weatherbell.com)
The long-awaited opening salvo of the 2024 presidential election begins Monday with the caucuses in Iowa. And it will be nearly as cold as it gets.
Highs on Monday shouldn’t get above zero across the state, while deep snow remains on the ground from recent storms. Temperatures will hover just above record lows for the date in most areas. But Sioux City’s predicted high temperature of minus-3 would be the coldest on record.
By Monday evening, temperatures are forecast to approach ten below zero before dropping overnight to minus-15 or minus-20. Winds gusting around 30 mph could deliver wind chills of minus-20 to minus-30 during the evening, dipping as far as minus-40 overnight.
How cold will your city be?
Much of the central United States takes this Arctic attack head-on, and it is quite powerful considering our warming climate. Here’s how cold it is forecast to get in a number of cities, several of which could set calendar day record lows:
- Great Falls, Mont. — Minus-36 for Saturday’s low
- Sioux City, Iowa — Minus-20 for Sunday’s low
- Burlington, Ill. — Minus-14 for Monday’s low
- Fargo, N.D. — Minus-10 for Sunday’s low
- Kansas City — Minus-10 for Monday’s low
- Minneapolis — Minus 11 for Monday’s low
- Chicago — Minus-6 for Monday’s low
- Denver — Minus-8 for Monday’s low
- St. Louis — 0 for Sunday’s low
- Dallas — 11 for Tuesday’s low
- Houston — 21 for Tuesday’s low
Denver is among the cities that will experience a rather long stretch of abnormally cold temperatures. “Expect sub-zero wind chills all of Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and maybe Tuesday also,” wrote Chris Bianchi, a broadcast meteorologist based in Denver, on X, formerly Twitter. “Temps will probably be stuck in the single-digits in Denver all of Saturday-Monday. This isn’t common.”
In Chicago, highs probably won’t rise above the single digits Sunday through Tuesday. Even as far south as Little Rock, highs may be stuck in the 20s Sunday through Tuesday.
By Tuesday morning, subzero cold is expected to stretch as far as southern Kansas and Missouri.
Although the Arctic blast will moderate farther east, the coldest air of the season will also arrive along the East Coast by Tuesday or Wednesday.
Lows may dip to the mid- and upper teens along the Interstate 95 corridor from Virginia to Boston on Wednesday, with interior areas in the single digits or colder. Freezing highs are probable from Washington northward.
Freezing overnight conditions may also dip to northern Florida by Wednesday, with the rest of the Gulf Coast probably sinking into the 20s.
When will the cold relent?
A model simulation for late next week continues to look favorable for cold in the eastern half of the nation with the flow pattern directing Arctic air from Canada southward. (Tropical Tidbits)
This first round of cold will ease late next week, though much of the country will remain chillier than normal. That’s before another faceoff with Arctic air that’s possible by the weekend of Jan. 20 and 21.
Any signals for a more substantial thaw are still about two weeks away. Forecasts made by longer-range models, while low-confidence, indicate milder than normal weather for the central state in early February but chilly weather holding on in the East, when El Niño events are known to sometimes fuel winter storms.
In Chicago, highs probably won’t rise above the single digits Sunday through Tuesday. Even as far south as Little Rock, highs may be stuck in the 20s Sunday through Tuesday.
By Tuesday morning, subzero cold is expected to stretch as far as southern Kansas and Missouri.
Although the Arctic blast will moderate farther east, the coldest air of the season will also arrive along the East Coast by Tuesday or Wednesday.
Lows may dip to the mid- and upper teens along the Interstate 95 corridor from Virginia to Boston on Wednesday, with interior areas in the single digits or colder. Freezing highs are probable from Washington northward.
Freezing overnight conditions may also dip to northern Florida by Wednesday, with the rest of the Gulf Coast probably sinking into the 20s.
When will the cold relent?
A model simulation for late next week continues to look favorable for cold in the eastern half of the nation with the flow pattern directing Arctic air from Canada southward. (Tropical Tidbits)
This first round of cold will ease late next week, though much of the country will remain chillier than normal. That’s before another faceoff with Arctic air that’s possible by the weekend of Jan. 20 and 21.
Any signals for a more substantial thaw are still about two weeks away. Forecasts made by longer-range models, while low-confidence, indicate milder than normal weather for the central state in early February but chilly weather holding on in the East, when El Niño events are known to sometimes fuel winter storms.
A Recap
It's hard to keep track of it all. Here's a short, partial recap of the last coupla weeks.
Yasmin Khan
- Where's Melania?
- No Ted Cruz endorsement
- He got mixed up on his dates again
- New-ish audio on his efforts to fuck with voting in Detroit
- Trump has already been found liable/guilty in the NYC Fraud case
- Trump has already been found liable/guilty in the E Jean Carroll case
- The only decisions pending are about how much he'll have to pay
Jan 11, 2024
Today's Podcast
The Professional Left with Driftglass and Blue Gal
The internet is a community band
where everybody thinks they've got the solo,
and nobody bothers to practice.
Jennifer Rubin
- Conspiracy to defraud
- Conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding
- Obstruction of an official proceeding
- Conspiracy to deprive people of the right to vote and to have one’s vote counted.
Opinion
Jack Smith’s case got stronger over the past month
When a federal grand jury in D.C. indicted former president Donald Trump in August, the four charges stemming from his attempted coup were tightly drawn, based on easily provable facts many Americans witnessed with their own eyes. Though most of the attention since then has focused on his legal appeals, the factual case appears to be much stronger than originally recognized.
The first hint came in early December when special counsel Jack Smith filed a document laying out some of his evidence. “Smith alleges that a Trump ‘Campaign Employee’ — also identified as Trump’s ‘agent’ — sought to cause a riot to disrupt the centralized vote counting in Detroit on Nov. 4, 2020,” Tom Joscelyn, Norman L. Eisen and Fred Wertheimer observed in Just Security. “That goes beyond allegations of merely exploiting violence by third-parties to raise a new level of alleged wrongdoing.” Smith also cited some of Trump’s post-indictment statements sympathetic to the convicted rioters as evidence of Trump’s corrupt intent. Even Trump’s statement on Tuesday promising “bedlam” if he loses smacks of the same threats of violence that brought us Jan. 6, 2021.
Joscelyn, Eisen and Wertheimer laid out some of the stunning evidence:
The Justice Department alleges that a “Campaign Employee” — a person who is also described both as an “unindicted conspirator” and Trump’s “agent” — attempted to cause violence to “obstruct the vote count” at the TCF Center in Detroit, Michigan. In the weeks following the presidential election, Trump repeatedly and falsely claimed that there had been election fraud at the TCF Center — the central location where Detroit’s votes were tallied. But the special counsel turns Trump’s lies back against him, writing that “in truth [Trump’s] agent was seeking to cause a riot to disrupt the count.” It is worth repeating: Smith alleges that a Trump Campaign Employee sought to cause a riot — not just use violence by third-parties.
As the Just Security authors pointed out, Trump continued to lie about the Detroit vote counting even after his own attorney general, William P. Barr, told him the allegations were nonsense. “Evidence of the defendant’s post-conspiracy embrace of particularly violent and notorious rioters is admissible to establish the defendant’s motive and intent on January 6 — that he sent supporters, including groups like the Proud Boys, whom he knew were angry, and whom he now calls ‘patriots,’ to the Capitol to achieve the criminal objective of obstructing the congressional certification,” Smith wrote.
Smith also revealed in the December filing key evidence regarding Trump’s phone. As CBS News reported, an expert “specifically identified the periods of time during which the defendant’s phone was unlocked and the Twitter application was open on January 6.” First, this evidence might suggest Trump purposely used his own phone to make calls, perhaps to avoid detection. (That indicates awareness he was engaged in wrongful conduct.) Second, such evidence might help corroborate what we learned just a few days ago from ABC News.
The newest revelation, perhaps the most significant, also related to Trump’s actions on Jan. 6, 2021. “Many of the exclusive details come from the questioning of Trump’s former deputy chief of staff, Dan Scavino, who first started working for Trump as a teenager three decades ago and is now a paid senior adviser to Trump’s reelection campaign,” ABC News reported. “Scavino wouldn’t speak with the House select committee that conducted its own probe related to Jan. 6, but — after a judge overruled claims of executive privilege last year — he did speak with Smith’s team.”
These events preceded Trump’s furious tweet at 2:24 p.m., essentially egging on the crowd to go after Pence. The new evidence bolsters other testimony that family members, lawmakers and aides failed to get him to call off the mob. The obvious conclusion: Trump intended to stop the vote count and was not about to halt the violence.
Moreover, Luna allegedly will provide evidence about a draft tweet Trump showed him that read: “These are the things and events that happen when a sacred landslide election victory is so unceremoniously and viciously stripped away from great patriots. … Remember this day for forever!” Even a nonlawyer like Luna knew this could be an admission he was “culpable” or even directing the violent mob.
Not too long ago, skeptical commentators opined that Smith would have a hard time tying Trump to the violence or proving the element of intent needed for the four counts: conspiracy to defraud, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of an official proceeding and conspiracy to deprive people of the right to vote and to have one’s vote counted. Not only have we learned Trump was repeatedly told there had been no fraud, but now we have potent eyewitnesses and forensic evidence of Trump’s alleged willingness to stop the electoral vote count at any cost.
Just Security’s model prosecution memo explained the required element of intent. “Regardless of their beliefs about the election outcome, [Trump and his associates] also knew that the means by which they pursued their objective were deceptive and inconsistent with established law. And there is no end-justifies-the-means safe harbor under § 371 for conspirators who deceitfully obstruct a lawful government function, even if they subjectively believe that their cause is justified.” That he not once but twice (in Michigan and D.C.) was eager to reap the benefits of violence certainly should constitute proof of his “deceitful” obstruction of the proceedings.
These revelations remind us why Trump’s lawyers are throwing up every legal excuse (including the preposterous and unsustainable position that the president has absolute immunity from prosecution) and using every stalling technique they can dream up to avoid going to trial. Smith has clear statutory grounds for the indictment. And he has evidence — more than we previously knew — from witnesses close to Trump that will help him prove the most difficult element in any crime: intent. If Smith gets to trial, he should have more than enough evidence to clear the bar of beyond a reasonable doubt.
When a federal grand jury in D.C. indicted former president Donald Trump in August, the four charges stemming from his attempted coup were tightly drawn, based on easily provable facts many Americans witnessed with their own eyes. Though most of the attention since then has focused on his legal appeals, the factual case appears to be much stronger than originally recognized.
The first hint came in early December when special counsel Jack Smith filed a document laying out some of his evidence. “Smith alleges that a Trump ‘Campaign Employee’ — also identified as Trump’s ‘agent’ — sought to cause a riot to disrupt the centralized vote counting in Detroit on Nov. 4, 2020,” Tom Joscelyn, Norman L. Eisen and Fred Wertheimer observed in Just Security. “That goes beyond allegations of merely exploiting violence by third-parties to raise a new level of alleged wrongdoing.” Smith also cited some of Trump’s post-indictment statements sympathetic to the convicted rioters as evidence of Trump’s corrupt intent. Even Trump’s statement on Tuesday promising “bedlam” if he loses smacks of the same threats of violence that brought us Jan. 6, 2021.
Joscelyn, Eisen and Wertheimer laid out some of the stunning evidence:
The Justice Department alleges that a “Campaign Employee” — a person who is also described both as an “unindicted conspirator” and Trump’s “agent” — attempted to cause violence to “obstruct the vote count” at the TCF Center in Detroit, Michigan. In the weeks following the presidential election, Trump repeatedly and falsely claimed that there had been election fraud at the TCF Center — the central location where Detroit’s votes were tallied. But the special counsel turns Trump’s lies back against him, writing that “in truth [Trump’s] agent was seeking to cause a riot to disrupt the count.” It is worth repeating: Smith alleges that a Trump Campaign Employee sought to cause a riot — not just use violence by third-parties.
As the Just Security authors pointed out, Trump continued to lie about the Detroit vote counting even after his own attorney general, William P. Barr, told him the allegations were nonsense. “Evidence of the defendant’s post-conspiracy embrace of particularly violent and notorious rioters is admissible to establish the defendant’s motive and intent on January 6 — that he sent supporters, including groups like the Proud Boys, whom he knew were angry, and whom he now calls ‘patriots,’ to the Capitol to achieve the criminal objective of obstructing the congressional certification,” Smith wrote.
Smith also revealed in the December filing key evidence regarding Trump’s phone. As CBS News reported, an expert “specifically identified the periods of time during which the defendant’s phone was unlocked and the Twitter application was open on January 6.” First, this evidence might suggest Trump purposely used his own phone to make calls, perhaps to avoid detection. (That indicates awareness he was engaged in wrongful conduct.) Second, such evidence might help corroborate what we learned just a few days ago from ABC News.
The newest revelation, perhaps the most significant, also related to Trump’s actions on Jan. 6, 2021. “Many of the exclusive details come from the questioning of Trump’s former deputy chief of staff, Dan Scavino, who first started working for Trump as a teenager three decades ago and is now a paid senior adviser to Trump’s reelection campaign,” ABC News reported. “Scavino wouldn’t speak with the House select committee that conducted its own probe related to Jan. 6, but — after a judge overruled claims of executive privilege last year — he did speak with Smith’s team.”
These events preceded Trump’s furious tweet at 2:24 p.m., essentially egging on the crowd to go after Pence. The new evidence bolsters other testimony that family members, lawmakers and aides failed to get him to call off the mob. The obvious conclusion: Trump intended to stop the vote count and was not about to halt the violence.
Moreover, Luna allegedly will provide evidence about a draft tweet Trump showed him that read: “These are the things and events that happen when a sacred landslide election victory is so unceremoniously and viciously stripped away from great patriots. … Remember this day for forever!” Even a nonlawyer like Luna knew this could be an admission he was “culpable” or even directing the violent mob.
Not too long ago, skeptical commentators opined that Smith would have a hard time tying Trump to the violence or proving the element of intent needed for the four counts: conspiracy to defraud, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of an official proceeding and conspiracy to deprive people of the right to vote and to have one’s vote counted. Not only have we learned Trump was repeatedly told there had been no fraud, but now we have potent eyewitnesses and forensic evidence of Trump’s alleged willingness to stop the electoral vote count at any cost.
Just Security’s model prosecution memo explained the required element of intent. “Regardless of their beliefs about the election outcome, [Trump and his associates] also knew that the means by which they pursued their objective were deceptive and inconsistent with established law. And there is no end-justifies-the-means safe harbor under § 371 for conspirators who deceitfully obstruct a lawful government function, even if they subjectively believe that their cause is justified.” That he not once but twice (in Michigan and D.C.) was eager to reap the benefits of violence certainly should constitute proof of his “deceitful” obstruction of the proceedings.
These revelations remind us why Trump’s lawyers are throwing up every legal excuse (including the preposterous and unsustainable position that the president has absolute immunity from prosecution) and using every stalling technique they can dream up to avoid going to trial. Smith has clear statutory grounds for the indictment. And he has evidence — more than we previously knew — from witnesses close to Trump that will help him prove the most difficult element in any crime: intent. If Smith gets to trial, he should have more than enough evidence to clear the bar of beyond a reasonable doubt.
Oh, Bobo
Here's the official press release regarding the incident in Silt CO last Saturday.
The obvious (and very shitty GOP-like) snark for this:
The obvious (and very shitty GOP-like) snark for this:
I wonder how many of those cops got handjobs that night.
Yes, I'm a very bad person. And no, I'm not sorry.
Briefing
It gets harder and harder to keep it all straight.
Trump's legal difficulties (ie: his hopefully-imminent downfall) on so many fronts and in so many venues, together with his wranglings and dodges and delaying tactics, are coming as fast and furious as his 35,000 lies in 4 years as POTUS.
And while it's a nice turnaround to see him back on his heels playing defense every day, it's still a major distraction, making it harder to deal with the other big fuckin' problems we've got both here in USAmerica Inc, and every other goddamned place in the world.
So here's a short recap on a few things from Gina Bonanno-Lemos.
Jan 10, 2024
Today's Brian
As we get closer to an actual trial - as Trump's delaying tactics continue to falter - the antics get more flamboyant, and the rhetoric gets hotter.
Today's Nerdy Thing
Sometimes knowing too much about how something is done kinda spoils the magic. For me, it just makes the magic more amazing. Especially when it's about the magic of music.
I can sing a little, and I've been banging around on my guitar for a good long time, and while I can usually play &/or sing the right notes at the right time, it only occasionally results in what I can reasonably call "real music".
So when I get a chance to see how that "real music" is made, I'm at once tickled by the beauty and the spectacle of it all - plus it's always good to learn something new - and I can see a very good excuse for not being better at it myself. Taken together, that's actually pretty comforting for me.
Aimee Nolte explains:
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)