The Subconscious Shows Up

Guys like BKjr can't help but self-sabotage eventually. They have to blow themselves up, and they go way out of their way to take a lot of us with them - their egos demand it.

Dave Columbo

Trump's dumbassery is without limit.

A TweeXt

LMAO. Hunter Biden just destroyed Donald Trump.

“My dad at 81 years old secretly got on a military aircraft, went to Ukraine, took a train for 16 hours to Kyiv as the first President of the United States to go into an active war zone. Donald Trump fits his fat ass into a food…

— Ed Krassenstein (@EdKrassen) August 22, 2026

Maggie

The probability is low, bit it ain't zero - not with this fuckin' crew.

More Belle

It's really so simple, even Trump could understand it. But he doesn't - because he's such a fuckin' dumbass.

Aaron Parnas

Our Canuckistani cousins ain't havin' it.

Here I am in MAGA-occupied America, cheering for an "opponent" to kick our ass.

And maybe I'm being a little over-dramatic, but it feels pretty weird - like maybe this is how the French or the Dutch felt in 1944, waiting for liberation.

Got get 'em, Cousins

Belle

Trump's #1 preferred go-to response to everything is force - one kind or another, he's going to use or threaten force to get his way.

Kinda what a malignant narcissistic abusive rapist does, isn't it?

The Bubble

"Earnings are opinion. Cash flow is fact."

Opinion: The bond market is going to burst the stock-market bubble

Rising yields threaten everything, especially overextended equities

When it comes to stock-market downturns, listen to the Bible. Even if one is coming, “of that day and that hour knoweth no man,” not even “the angels which are in heaven.”

But one is surely coming, and the unraveling of the long-term bond market is raising the chances that one is imminent.

It is already absurdly obvious that we are in a massive stock-market bubble. Former Federal Reserve governor Bill Dudley just pointed out many of the signs, which will likely come as no surprise to regular readers of MarketWatch but which are worth repeating.

While Dudley listed a number of different issues, they boil down to three big ones. First, stock-market valuations are already crazy by any number of measures. Second, the entire artificial-intelligence financial boom is now in the kind of classic Ponzi-style loop that always happens in financial manias, and which has always been followed by a downturn or worse. And third, the rise in long-term interest rates in the U.S. and around the world are exactly the kind of thing that could burst the bubble.

The interest-rate argument is most timely. It looks increasingly like the U.S. Treasury, the global lender of last resort, is losing control of long-term rates. The alleged Treasury “buyback” program that sparked a brief rally was far less than it seemed; it involved trivial sums of money and no new money.

And the bond rally is already over: By early Thursday, the yield or interest rate on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was already back to where it was before the announcement.

The underlying cause is that both the U.S. and other major developed countries, including Japan and in Europe, have been piling on debt like crazy for decades and lenders, at long last, are starting to ask some serious questions about how sustainable it all is. Epic levels of debt added during the COVID lockdowns, following hefty additions during the global financial crisis, have changed the financial picture.

The word “credit” comes from Latin, and means “he or she believes.” People extend credit because they believe they will get their money back plus interest. Once they start to question that belief, things can spiral very quickly. This happened to the Middle Eastern emirate of Dubai in late 2009, and the so-called PIIGS — Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain — in the years that followed.

Every single financial bubble has burst when some people have started to ask whether they will really get all their money back. In the aftermath, the motto among high-net-worth advisers is that return “of” capital is more important than return “on” capital. Then, as markets boom in the next bubble, the lesson is forgotten.

There are astonishingly few people around on Wall Street who remember the bubble of the mid-2000s, which was followed by the cataclysmic global financial crisis of 2007-09. There are even fewer who remember the great stock-market bubble of the late 1990s, followed by the crash of 2000-03. Alarmingly, there are also astonishingly few people who seem to understand math, or how all these things are connected.

The interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds, especially on the 10-year note, is the bedrock upon which the entire financial system is based. Back when I was still soaking wet behind the ears and being trained by business-school professors in the arcane world of “corporate finance” and “valuation,” everything started with the “risk-free rate,” meaning the rate of interest an investor could earn on supposedly risk-free investments — meaning U.S. Treasury bonds.

All “risky” assets, meaning all stocks and corporate bonds, are priced in relation to this so-called risk-free rate, using a variety of calculations. If the market starts to worry about U.S. debt levels and pushes up the rate of interest on Treasury bonds to compensate, this in turn pushes up the rates of return demanded by everything else.

And that’s even before you factor in any rise in actual risk aversion caused by a financial crisis.

So if the Treasury is losing control of the Treasury bond market, that isn’t just a matter for bondholders — it’s a matter for everyone. From their peaks in 2007, the various stock markets of the PIIGS each fell between 65% and 85%, when measured in U.S. dollars, before hitting rock bottom around 2012.

So what is happening in the bond market right now is deeply ominous.

Meanwhile, Dudley highlighted the circular financing loop involved in AI. Right now, AI investment is driving the economy and the stock market.

In other words, rising equity prices get reported as corporate earnings, which are then used as an excuse to … raise equity prices still further.

The phrase for this is Ponzi finance. It’s absurd double counting.

Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments, says that the second quarter amply highlights the old adage that “earnings are a matter of opinion, while cash flow is a matter of fact.” In cash-flow terms, he notes, many of the biggest tech companies are now cash flow negative as they spend gigantic sums of money on new AI data centers. They have been forced to issue bonds and even new stock to raise the sums needed.

And the assumptions needed to suggest these investments will earn a good return on capital are somewhere between challenging and preposterous, depending on whom you ask, how well they know you and how much their job depends on keeping the whole thing going.

Sadly, those who warn about stock-market manias, bubbles and Ponzi finance always look wrong until they look right. Actually, they look increasingly wrong until they look right. The late 1990s was littered with the careers of people who had called the stock-market bubble, but too early. Ditto the mid-2000s with the housing boom.

Nobody knows the day or the hour. But that doesn’t mean it won’t come.

A Bit Of Irony

Makes me wonder if Trump's going to send the FBI after that guy for threatening the president.

Of course, he never mentions who that "local pedophile" might be, but the reaction is pretty consistent - Trump's whole gang got knots in their Underoos when Ossoff mentioned "traveling around with Natalie", without making any reference to anything untoward.

It seems, collectively, MAGA has a very dirty mind. And maybe we all do where Trump is concerned, but I think he's given us very good reason for it.

Trump Rally Interrupted by Man Wearing Shirt Saying, ‘Kill Your Local Pedophile’

President Donald Trump’s speech was interrupted Friday when a man wearing a shirt that read “Kill Your Local Pedophile” was removed from the crowd.

The moment came during a rally in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, in support of Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC), who was appointed to her late brother Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-SC) seat at Trump’s urging and is now in a runoff GOP primary against Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC).

After asking the crowd to “pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot” and vote, the president continued about a potential midterms loss, “I’m going to be impeached. They’re gonna impeach me. They have no idea why.”

He then started to tell a story, detailing, “I saw today a congressman said on one of the shows, ‘We’re gonna impeach President Trump. We’re going to impeach him.’ ‘Oh really? Why?’ the person was asking. A neutral commentator, for a change. I like neutral commentators. ‘Oh, I see. You’re gonna impeach him. Why?’ ‘Uh, well, I don’t know.'”

It’s not clear who Trump was referring to, though Fox News did air a clip of an interview Thursday with Florida State Rep. Angie Nixon (D), who won her state’s Senate Democratic primary on Tuesday. In the clip, she said, “I’m looking forward to going to Washington, D.C. to provide everyday, hardworking people with some relief after we work to, you know, impeach.”

After his story, Trump moved away from the podium to listen to what he seemed to think were jeers from the crowd at this alleged plot to impeach him. The Fox News broadcast then went to a split screen, though, showing someone being escorted by security out of the event. He was wearing a shirt that said: “KILL YOUR LOCAL PEDOPHILE.”

“That’s alright,” Trump said of the man’s t-shirt. “That person’s going home to mom, gonna get scolded, ’cause mom is voting for us.”

Either picking up on his train of thought or just retelling the story altogether, the president went on, “They’re gonna impeach. But did you see it this morning? This congressman. It’s a big story. He’s on. ‘We’re going to impeach President Trump.’ ‘Why are you going to impeach him?’ the commentator — ‘Uh.’ ‘Why are you gonna impeach him? What has he done wrong?’ ‘Um, I don’t know.'”

The Shift Is Quickening

Politicians have become even more notorious than usual the last several years for spending more and more time dialing for dollars and sucking up to the big donors, and less time doing any real retailing.

Republican town halls in 2026:   39 

Democratic town halls in 2026: 451 

Why Republicans are hiding from their own voters

The numbers make it clear: Republicans have almost completely stopped holding town hall meetings in which they’re forced to confront their own constituents. So far, over the course of 2026, Republicans have held just 39 town halls, while their Democratic opponents have held 451. This is according to new reporting from MS NOW, which wrote on Thursday, “The Republican town hall is disappearing. Once a mainstay of life as a lawmaker, in-person town halls have become increasingly rare for House Republicans, who are opting instead for virtual events and more private meetings with constituents.”

MS NOW spoke with GOP lawmakers who cited three reasons Republicans are hiding from their public. First, many are avoiding in-person events because they fear being protested or heckled. Others said virtual events allowed them to reach more people at once. And others still raised concerns over safety, noting the assassination attempts against President Donald Trump and other officials. Whatever their reasoning, says MS NOW, “Republicans acknowledged a broad rejection of the traditional town hall.”

“They’re a setup,” one House Republican told MS NOW, requesting anonymity to discuss the sensitive topic. “It’s just a setup to get us — get you off guard. And for me, personally, it’s a good way to get shot. There’s a lot of crazies out there right now.” They added, “I just don’t feel like there is any gain to be had.”

According to another, “It’s the disruptive factor. It’s the screaming factor. But it’s also, truthfully, a security factor. The Republicans have been the ones shot at. Republicans have been the ones attacked.”

“If you actually want to have a conversation, hear questions and give answers, it makes no sense to not do a tele-town hall,” said another. “It’s the best way to do it.”

While Republicans offer an array of justifications for the decision, according to MS NOW, “the shift risks breaking the congressional feedback loop between lawmakers and the voters they represent. In-person events are not just opportunities for members to explain their votes; they are a rare opportunity for lawmakers to hear how constituents are experiencing their policies. The backlash at these events can be a reality check for members, and sometimes motivate them to regulate and reassess their positions.”

As MS NOW explains, “The frequency of in-person town halls for Republicans changed dramatically in spring 2025, when House GOP leadership — led by Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee — encouraged lawmakers to avoid in-person town halls and opt for virtual gatherings. That guidance came after several GOP town halls went viral as constituents and activists protested policies of the Trump administration, putting lawmakers on defense in front of cameras. Voter criticism spanned several topics, from rising costs to Medicaid cuts in the GOP’s reconciliation bill. Even the Jeffrey Epstein files were a major flashpoint.”

While Republicans have engaged with fewer and fewer town halls, doing 229 in the first half of 2024, 122 in 2025, and now just 39 in 2026, Democratic lawmakers have done the opposite. In the first half of 2024, Democrats held 214 town halls. The next year, that exploded to 924. This year that number is down to 451, but still much higher than their Republican counterparts. Some individual Democrats have done more of these events than the entire GOP, and some have begun holding events in Republican districts to fill the void.

“Republicans know their agenda is deeply unpopular, so they’re hiding from their constituents,” said Representative Brendan Boyle(D-PA), who has been holding town halls in a nearby opponent’s district. “After voting to gut healthcare, raise costs and shower billionaires with tax breaks, they won’t even defend their record back home. I’ve held town halls in Republican districts, and I’ll keep showing up where my Republican colleagues won’t.”

One Republican, Representative Mike Flood (R-NE), has continued to hold events even though he was lambasted at one last year. He told MS NOW that he had vowed to hold three a year in 2022, and aims to deliver, saying, “Things only get better when you go to the town square and you have an exchange of ideas.”

But his fellow Republicans don’t agree, expressing a clear preference for campaigning online. Their opponents have bashed this approach. According to Viet Shelton, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, “If you no longer believe it’s worth your time to listen to the people who elected you, then you no longer deserve the job.”