COVID-19 Update

No - not April Fools. I promise.

On this date last year, 565,266 Americans had been killed by COVID-19, and the date projected for us to reach 1,000,000 was way off the distance.

The weekend slump pushes that 1-million-date back - sometimes by months. But then the mid-week bump pulls it forward again:

And while the trends are still headed down, it appears they're starting to level off:

 

Finally, the Omicron BA.2 variant has become the big boy on the block, but now, here comes Omicron XE, which is some kind of new thing that's grown out of a combination of two old things, and "supersedes" versions XA thru XD or some-fuckin'-thing.

The Independent UK:

New Omicron variant XE found in UK but ‘too soon to say’ how contagious it is

Hundreds of cases of ‘XE’ have been detected in England but experts still investigating level of risk

A new Covid variant has been found in the UK but experts say it’s too soon to know if it is more transmissible than previous strains.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSCA) said it was studying XE - a mutation of the BA.1 and BA.2 Omicron strains, referred to as a "recombinant".

The body cautioned though that "as this estimate has not remained consistent as new data have been added, it cannot yet be interpreted as an estimate of growth advantage for the recombinant."

"Numbers were too small for the XE recombinant to be analysed by region," the UKHSCA said.

Professor Susan Hopkins, the UKHSA's chief medical advisor transition lead, said that recombinant variants are not uncommon and usually die off "relatively quickly".

“This particular recombinant, XE, has shown a variable growth rate and we cannot yet confirm whether it has a true growth advantage," Ms Hopkins told The Sun.

“So far there is not enough evidence to draw conclusions about transmissibility, severity or vaccine effectiveness.”

There's more - but it doesn't get any clearer or easier to understand.

the more we learn,

the more we realize

how little we know

важливе

"The important"

March 7

March 9

March 25

March 31

Today's Uh-Oh

Vladimir Putin is a strutting tin-plated martinet. And maybe he's not all that smart, but he's no dummy either.

He knows that even a total dictator can't hang on without some support from the citizenry - a Caesar has basically three ways to stay in power.

• He can manipulate media so as to brainwash and gaslight
• He can buy off the masses with bread and circuses
• He can claim a military victory and throw himself a nice parade in Red Square

Putin is losing the propaganda war because he can't shut down the whole internet - that would look like he's losing the propaganda war. 🤪

The money he needs to buy off the people has been reduced by at least half because of the sanctions - which get wider and deeper and more stringent practically every day.

And he's got nothing but dead soldiers and scrap metal scattered all over Ukraine.

So what's he up to?

As always, I'm trying to stay out the Predictions Business.

But (you know the word "but" after that opening declaration means "here's a coupla predictions I just said I wasn't gonna to make") two real possibilities pop into my mind.

1. Putin intends to follow his own precedent and settle in for a long siege - remember, he blasted Chechnya for 10 years. This could also be what MOD tells him will be necessary to hold the Donbas.
2. He's drafting 135,000 guys to ensure "law-n-order" because of something he fears could easily be a Russian Spring kinda thing - the guys he's drafting into service under the guise of supporting the Special Military Operation could be deployed to Russian cities to fuck up protesters.

There are dozens of alternatives, combinations and permutations of what Putin is thinking. We can only hope NATO and Biden's Tiger Team are on their game, and not just ready to react, but planning a few preemptive surprises too.

ПРИБЛИЖАЕТСЯ

РУССКАЯ

ВЕСНА

SCOTUS Got Trouble

Jan6 is bringing us another load of serious business as the federal government continues trying to get its shit together.

Lawrence O'Donnell - The Last Word

Here's a bit longer snippet from the archives of the US Senate -

"Highlighting the political nature of this case, the final article of impeachment accused the justice of continually promoting his political agenda on the bench, thereby "tending to prostitute the high judicial character with which he was invested, to the low purpose of an electioneering partizan."

We've Got An Image To Protect

Madison Cawthorn (R-NC11) went too far when he spilled some (alleged) dirt on unnamed Republicans, and Kevin McCarthy just had to step in and have a word.

All in - Chris Hayes:

From Russia With Love

YouTuber Russiana explains

Don't say the W word

COVID-19 Update

Two pieces at WaPo today.

note: Good luck sorting through this shit. My take is that I'm old and fat, and even though I'm all vaxxed up and I've never had COVID, I'll be going for a 2nd booster because that's what I think makes sense to me - and cuz my doctor said so - unless he's changed his mind - again.

(pay wall)

Opinion: How allowing a second booster shot signals a shift in pandemic guidance

The Food and Drug Administration’s decision on Tuesday to authorize a fourth coronavirus vaccine dose for Americans older than 50 heralds a new approach to the pandemic. Instead of the federal government prescribing actions that everyone should take, it is providing tools so that individuals can choose their own level of protection.

The FDA’s announcement, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s subsequent green light, has provoked a mixed response. Some criticized the process; unlike previous vaccine authorizations, independent advisers to the FDA and CDC have not yet weighed in, and in fact are scheduled to meet next week to discuss exactly this issue. Others applauded the expedited timeline, especially as the CDC just reported that the extremely contagious BA.2 omicron subvariant has become the dominant strain in the United States.

The medical community itself is split over whether a fourth dose is needed. That’s because there is no consensus about the purpose of vaccination. Is it to prevent severe disease? Or is it to reduce any symptomatic illness?

If the goal of vaccination is to prevent hospitalization and death, the vaccine plus one booster should be sufficient. A CDC study found that two doses resulted in an 88 percent reduction in being on a ventilator or dying; three doses increased the protection to 94 percent. During the period when the original omicron strain was dominant, the effectiveness of two doses dropped to 79 percent, while that of three doses stayed at 94 percent.

If the goal is to reduce any infection from covid-19, it’s more complicated. On the one hand, it’s clear from a large analysis in California that the effectiveness of three doses against omicron wanes over time (though protection against hospitalization remains strong). But while preliminary data out of Israel shows that a fourth dose increases antibody levels among people 60 and older, a separate study suggests only marginal benefits in reducing illness for younger health-care workers. Other Israeli studies show that a fourth dose enhances protection against severe illness, but the added benefit might not last long.

Here’s where we need to separate the public health perspective from the individual patient one. From a population health standpoint, I think fourth doses won’t change the trajectory of BA.2 in the United States. About half of those eligible for the third dose have not yet received them, including 1 in 3 adults 65 and older. And of course, there are those who remain totally unvaccinated. Getting vaccines to these groups should remain the priority of health officials.

A permissive allowance is therefore the best policy. Individuals aren’t required to get the extra vaccine, but they can if they wish. In a sense, the decision for an additional booster becomes similar to continued masking or rapid tests before indoor gatherings. There are many Americans who are no longer concerned about covid-19. Those who are vaccinated and boosted might not opt for an extra booster at this time, just as they could choose not to mask or regularly test. This is especially true if they recently recovered from omicron.

There are others who remain worried about coronavirus infection. For the elderly and for the medically frail who would end up in the hospital with any respiratory infection, I understand the rationale for choosing the additional shot. They want to do everything they possibly can to avoid contracting covid-19. Even if the added protection might not be much more than the third and might not last long, it’s worth it.

Separately, there are those who received one-dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine and then an initial booster of either J&J or an mRNA vaccine. The CDC is allowing all of these individuals, regardless of age, to receive a second mRNA booster shot if it’s been four months since their last vaccine. To me, this additional booster should be weighed the same way as a fourth dose of an mRNA vaccine — an option for those who wish to further reduce their risk.

Is there a downside to the extra shot? There is a theoretical possibility that if too many boosters are given, one’s body might not mount as much of a response in the future. A more practical reason to hold off is timing: If protection is short-lived, perhaps it’s better to wait until we know for sure that a major surge is coming. Also, omicron-specific boosters are being developed and might be available in the coming months. Some might choose to wait until then, or until there’s clear evidence that immunity against severe illness is waning.

The point is that while it’s far from straightforward whether people need a fourth dose, there are those who want it and should be able to access it. The federal government’s stance to allow this option signals an important pivot away from top-down public health guidance to individual decision-making. Going forward, people should be empowered to use boosters — just as they do masks, tests and treatments — to manage their own risk of covid-19.

- and -

(freebie)

Older adults can get second coronavirus booster to strengthen waning protection

Older adults can get second booster shots of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna coronavirus vaccines, federal agencies announced Tuesday as they expanded access to additional shots to help shore up protection against severe illness.

The Food and Drug Administration authorized a second booster shot of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna coronavirus vaccines for people 50 and older at least four months after their first booster. The FDA also updated its authorization of additional doses for people 12 and older who are immunocompromised, saying they are eligible for another booster shot — the fifth inoculation for people at heightened peril from the virus.

The shots are not a permanent solution to the pandemic. But with a still-more-transmissible version of the omicron coronavirus variant becoming dominant in the United States, even a short-term immunity boost among those at risk of severe illness could provide a valuable layer of protection.

The FDA action was followed within hours by a statement from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updating its booster guidance.

The second booster for adults 50 and older and for people 12 and older who are immunocompromised is expected to become available as early as Wednesday, now that the CDC has updated its guidance allowing those individuals to get it.

“This is especially important for those 65 and older and those 50 and older with underlying medical conditions that increase their risk for severe disease from COVID-19 as they are the most likely to benefit from receiving an additional booster dose at this time,” CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said in a statement.

Outside experts have debated the age at which second boosters should be made available. Many scientists who support a fourth dose for some older adults see little evidence that people under 60 or even 65 would clearly benefit. Federal officials said they were expanding eligibility to a lower age to avoid confusion and because underlying health risks were relatively common among people older than 50.

There are about 118 million people age 50 and older in the United States. But because not all of the people in that age range have received the initial series of shots or boosters, only a fraction are immediately eligible for a fourth shot.

Booster uptake in the United States has been slower than desired, particularly among older Americans who are at higher risk of severe illness. About 15 million people age 65 and older — a third of people in the age group — are fully vaccinated but have yet to receive a first booster. Only about 40 percent of people between 50 and 64 have received a first booster.

“I would urge people to get their first booster because one thing that did become apparent … is the third dose provides a differentiating level of immunity that does seem to provide people some additional benefit, in terms of preventing the severe outcomes of hospitalization and death — and that seems to last and be more durable,” Peter Marks, director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said at a news briefing.

The messenger RNA boosters will be available to people regardless of which brand of coronavirus vaccine they initially received, including Johnson & Johnson recipients.

The Pfizer-BioNTech booster is authorized for immunocompromised people age 12 and older. The Moderna vaccine has not yet been authorized in teenagers, and its booster is authorized for immunocompromised people 18 and older.

Experts have been inundated with questions from family members and emails from the public seeking advice on boosters.

“I’ve been getting multiple inquiries from lay friends over the past few days: ‘What does this mean, and what should I do?’ ” said John P. Moore, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York. “I find it increasingly difficult to tell friends what they should do. It’s becoming really problematic.”

The primary benefit of a fourth shot is thought to be protection against severe illness, and that risk can vary dramatically among people 50 and older. Not all experts are convinced the benefits are clear, and some have debated about whether the age cutoff should be 60 or older. A matrix of factors — including underlying health conditions, age, and time since last booster dose or infection — could play a role in what a person should consider in risk vs. benefit.

A 70-year-old with diabetes and high blood pressure, for example, who received a booster dose in October probably would be at dramatically different risk from covid-19 than a 50-year-old with no underlying health conditions. Tens of millions of people were infected with the omicron variant during the winter surge, and those people’s immune systems have been effectively boosted — so they may not need another shot now.

Some experts have raised concerns about the decision-making process. The second booster issue is not scheduled to be presented to outside committees advising the FDA and CDC.

“I think it’s wonderful that the FDA is making [a second booster] available,” said William Schaffner, an infectious-diseases expert at Vanderbilt University and a liaison member of the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices. But Schaffner said such decisions are typically reviewed by the CDC’s advisers, “and I think that mechanism should have been used for this also.”

Even if outside experts reached a similar conclusion, having a discussion and seeing data presented at a public meeting offers transparency and a “different tone,” Schaffner said.

But the FDA news is certain to be welcome to a segment of the population “who will be at their doctor’s office or pharmacies tomorrow, if not this afternoon, getting their fourth dose,” Schaffner said. “But they will be the minority of the population because after all, before you get your fourth, you have to get your third.”

Evidence in support of a fourth dose is limited and mixed, based largely on data from Israel — where people 60 and older have been able to receive a second booster shot. Israeli studies have supported the idea that an additional shot could be lifesaving for people older than 60 but have also suggested the shots will have marginal benefits for young, healthy people and offer only short-term and modest protection against getting infected.

One preprint study from Israel, out of 328,597 people who received a second booster dose, 92 died from covid. That outcome was significantly better than in the group of 234,868 who received only one booster; in that cohort, 232 died from covid. Another preprint found a lower rate of severe illness among people older than 60 who received four shots, but was limited, covering only a two-week period in late January.

Data included in a letter to the editor of the New England Journal of Medicine provided a more mixed picture. Among health-care workers in Israel, a fourth shot increased virus-blocking antibodies. But that boost provided little protection against infection, and people who became infected experienced few symptoms regardless of whether they had received three or four shots. Vaccinated people had relatively high amounts of virus in their nose, suggesting they could pass the infection to others.

The Israeli data underscored that boosters’ effects are transient and that a fourth-dose strategy is a short-term approach. An Israeli preprint study published last week before peer review found that a fourth dose was 73 percent protective against severe illness compared with three doses over the course of 10 weeks of follow-up. But the protection against infection was modest and short-lived, peaking at 64 percent three weeks after the vaccination and falling to about 29 percent.

Marks acknowledged the data supporting a fifth dose for immunocompromised people was more limited but said that it was seen as a way to protect vulnerable people. Vaccines tend to generate weaker protection against covid-19 in this group of people, and that protection tends to erode more quickly.

Timing the shots’ peak protection to the time of greatest risk from the virus is tricky. No one knows when future variants will emerge, and scientists are uncertain even about known threats. Infections from the BA.2 version of the omicron variant are ticking upward in the United States, but some health officials have said they don’t expect BA.2 to cause a surge. Some experts predict a surge next winter.

In terms of giving a second booster, Moore said, “Should you do it now — and in the fall? Or in the fall — and not now? This is where it gets head-spinning. What is the long-term intent, and what is the long-term policy?”

Separate from Tuesday’s action, the FDA plans next week to convene external advisers who will debate the long-term booster dose strategy for the general population. One possible scenario, Marks said, is a fall booster campaign that coincides with annual influenza shots.

White House spokeswoman Kate Bedingfield said there is sufficient supply to offer a fourth dose to limited populations.

“What I would say is that if it at some point it becomes recommended that the full population get … a fourth shot, we’re going to need additional funding,” Bedingfield said.

Vaccine makers are working on shots they believe will provide more durable protection. In recent days, leaders from Pfizer, and German partner BioNTech, and Moderna have indicated they believe new versions of their vaccines, including formulations that incorporate two versions of the coronavirus, will create longer-lasting immunity.

“I think about my family — my loved ones, and what I would say. … I would probably tell them to just kind of hang back until there’s clear evidence of a rise in their area,” said Natalie Dean, a biostatistics expert at Emory University’s Rollins School of Public Health in Atlanta. “There’s something to the timing of it — and where numbers remain low and they’ve been boosted not that long ago, a few months ago, I wouldn’t go out and tell them they need that right now.”

Today's Tweet

(see Salon for the story)

As you see the clips of Russian State TV calling Trump their ‘partner’ remember that Mark Burnett got the idea for using Trump on Apprentice from Putin’s people. He is their partner and has been for decades. Laundering his image thru NBC was a long term strategy. It worked well.

— NoelCaslerComedy (@caslernoel) March 30, 2022

Ukraine Slaps Back - Maybe

It's semi-unconfirmed, in that I haven't seen it on "regular news" yet.

About 10 miles north of the border

NY Post & AFP via News.com.au:

Ukraine appears to strike back for first time with missile hit on Russian military camp

Ukraine appears to have hit Russia directly for the first time since the invasion began, with a missile reportedly hitting a military camp.

Ukrainian forces may have struck back inside Russia on Tuesday with their first significant shelling.

A Ukrainian missile appeared to have hit a temporary Russian military encampment outside Belgorod, in Russia’s village of Krasny Oktyabr, about 64km from the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, said the Russian state-run news agency Tass.

Regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said there were no casualties, but an emergency service worker told Tass that four Russian soldiers were injured, the NY Post reports.

“Explosions were heard on the territory of Belgorod and the Belgorod region,” Mr Gladkov said.

“The incident took place near the village of Krasniy Oktyabr. The head of the village is in direct contact with me and has given me all the information. There are no casualties or injuries among the residents. I‘ll post the reason for this later.”

Video posted online from two local Belgorod news outlets appeared to show ammunition blowing up, but the source of the explosion could not be immediately confirmed outside of Tass.

If verified, the strike would apparently be the first that struck a military target inside Russia and wounded soldiers.

Last week, Tass said two men were hurt when a shell from Ukraine exploded in the same area.

The attack came as Moscow’s negotiators said Tuesday that Russia would “radically” reduce its military activity in northern Ukraine, including near the capital Kyiv, after “meaningful” talks in Istanbul.

“Given that the talks on the preparation of an agreement on the neutrality and non-nuclear status of Ukraine have moved into a practical field... a decision has been made to radically... reduce the military activity in the areas of Kyiv and Chernigiv,” Russia’s deputy defence minister Alexander Fomin said.

Chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said there had been a “meaningful discussion” at the talks and that Ukrainian proposals would be put to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

He also said that Mr Putin could meet Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky. “After today’s meaningful discussion we have agreed on and propose a solution, according to which the meeting of the heads of state is possible simultaneously with the foreign ministers initialling the treaty,” Mr Medinsky added.

“On the condition of quick work on the agreement and finding the required compromise, the possibility to make peace will become much closer.”

- more -

Kleptocracy

About halfway through this clip the guy makes the point that going after the oligarchs won't deter Putin, or make him change policies, because they've been subordinated to the regime in Moscow, and they just don't have the power they once had.

But It's not just the influence on Putin and Russian politics that matters. There's way too much dark money being poured into electoral processes everywhere. These rich boogers are buying up Coin-Operated Politicians all over this planet. And that needs to be dealt with if we don't want to live under the thumb of a global plutocracy.

Jan6 Stuff

Glenn Kirschner - Justice Matters

Talking about Burdens Of Proof and other niceties of our clunky. clumsy, smarmspace riddled system.

1. Reasonable Articulable Suspicion - a cop can stop you and ask questions
2. Probable Cause - you can be arrested and possibly indicted
3. Preponderance of the Evidence - what the fuck are you waiting for, Mr Garland?

COVID-19 Update

I may be experiencing a wave of "fuck this pandemic shit - I'm sick of it". For whatever reason, I failed to post an update again yesterday.

It's hard for me to tell if the thing is starting to make a comeback, or if this is the standard last scene of the spooky movie where they think the monster has been vanquished and the hero's about to get all mushy with his one true love, and then - surprise - not quite dead yet!

So I don't know if I'll skip it altogether, or just fall back to a position of posting something once in a while - if there's news - or try to find a different rhythm or what.

Anyway, here's what I've got today:

WaPo: (freebie)

CDC: If you got J&J’s vaccine and booster, consider an mRNA shot now

Combining single-dose shot with Pfizer, Moderna boosters offers better protection against severe covid, study shows

The nearly 17 million Americans who received the one-shot Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine are less protected against serious illness and hospitalizations than those who got the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna shots, according to federal data released Tuesday.

The latest data suggest Johnson & Johnson recipients should get a booster with one of the messenger RNA vaccines, if they haven’t already done so — and even consider a second messenger RNA booster for the greatest protection. The data come from a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report that analyzed the results of mix-and-match vaccine-and-booster combinations during a four-month period when the highly transmissible omicron variant was dominant.

Even combining a Johnson & Johnson vaccine with a booster of either Johnson & Johnson, or one of the two messenger RNA vaccines, wasn’t as strong as three shots of the messenger RNA vaccines in preventing emergency room visits or hospitalizations, according to the report.

Shortly after the study’s release, the CDC greenlighted a second booster, either of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna shots, for those who received Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine and booster at least four months ago. It did not formally recommend the second booster but said people may get it if they choose. More than 1.3 million people received the Johnson & Johnson vaccines and booster, according to CDC data.

- more -

Friendly reminder; it wasn’t the CEOs and billionaires who saved us from Covid-19. It was the janitors, nurses, grocery, and food workers…

— mohamad safa (@mhdksafa) March 30, 2022

Today's Operator Starsky

Ukrainian soldier - YouTuber who posts under the name Operator Starsky - takes on Russian Propaganda.

I don't know how much credence to lend this guy. I absolutely admit to my bias, so I don't a whole lot of convincing that the Russians are lying at every turn - I just don't know if he debunks the suspected videos all that well. Except for the Kadyrov picture - that shit is pure shit.

And here's a screen shot of the leaked memo:

A Break Down

... on the possible demise of Putin's imperial ambitions.

(paraphrasing) The west gets so hung up on not underestimating Russia, we fall into the mental trap of ascribing way more power and agency to them than they deserve - which leads to our making a whole different set of mistakes, which basically work out about the same, and here we are:

meet the new clusterfuck

same as the old clusterfuck

From Good Times Bad Times:

I have to be doubtful that the Russian Federation itself will break up. It think there must be a strong enough memory of national unity - a national identity - that will hold "the old Russia" together.

Remember though - I've been wrong before. Real wrong.

Even More Ukraine

When you've got more guys than guns.

(this'd never happen here in God's own USAmerica, Inc!)

For right anyway, this is a good problem to have.

Europa Today:

Too many volunteers, but few weapons: Ukraine stops enlisting

The number of military personnel doubled in just one month. Kiev denounces the lack of resources to train and arm new recruits

Hundreds of thousands of volunteers have wanted to join the Ukrainian army in recent weeks and fight alongside the military. Many have chosen to defend their country, and the requests for enlistment have been so high that the armed forces of Kiev are no longer able to train and arm the new recruits. The reason? Weapons would be missing.

The Ukrainian army avoids giving specific figures on the total number of active soldiers, but the estimates of the experts consulted by El Pais indicate that there are currently about 500,000 people who have joined the army (double the number before the start of the conflict). Authorities are now choosing to deploy volunteers to areas other than strictly military areas.

One month after the outbreak of the conflict, according to El Pais, Kiev begins to blame the lack of ammunition and weapons for the national defense forces. Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky last week asked NATO leaders gathered in Brussels for tanks, 1 percent of the Atlantic Alliance aircraft, missile firing systems, anti-ship weapons and air defenses to withstand the Russian offensive.

At the start of the conflict, the Ukrainian armed forces officially had 250,000 active professionals, of which 190,000 were military. On paper, Ukraine also had nearly 200,000 reservists and volunteers in the Territorial Defense Forces, a militarized division responsible for local protection and control. To this must be added the 130,000 policemen and battalions of paramilitary origin who were under the umbrella of the National Guard and now, with martial law, under the orders of the Ministry of Defense.

Mikhail Samus, director of the Ukrainian defense think tank New Geopolitics, points out that the contingent mobilized today by Ukraine is much larger than a month ago: 300 thousand veterans of the war caused by Russia in 2014 in the Donbass region (eastern of the country) were immediately incorporated into units at the front. To this must be added another 100,000 volunteers, according to the Ukrainian press, who were accepted into the Territorial Defense Forces in the first two weeks of the invasion. These units are essential in checkpoints and access to cities, in the search for Russian saboteurs, but also in armed confrontation, as Samus explains: "The Territorial Defense Forces were fundamental in the first attack against Kiev,

According to Andrei Demchenko, spokesman for the State Border Guard, in a press conference since the outbreak of the conflict about 400 thousand people have returned to the country, most of whom are men who, after arriving in their province of origin, they are voluntarily enrolled. But sources close to the Defense Ministry have called Demchenko's "an exaggeration for propaganda purposes". Arguing that in reality only a minority of those returning to Ukraine volunteer to join the ranks, and that many return mainly to be with their families.

Samus explains to the Spanish newspaper that in any case the majority of men are willing to fight. His assessment is based on pre-invasion polls, which estimated that 65 percent of adults would have taken up arms in the event of a Russian attack. "Now there are certainly more," he says, illustrating that even if only 10 percent of men between 18 and 60 had volunteered, that would still be a million potential fighters. Adults in this age group cannot leave the country due to the possibility of being mobilized by the army or required for other essential duties.

Andrei Shevchenko is a retired military officer and diplomat of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, confirms that recruitment has slowed down, and even stopped in Kiev, because there were already enough recruits in the early stages of the conflict. "What we need now is a training period for future front unit relays," he explains. "What we will not do is, as the Russians do, send people untrained as cannon fodder to war," he assures.

Today's Tweet

"I have never obstructed justice...I am not a crook."
-- Richard M. Nixon, Nov. 17, 1973

"I have no idea what a burner phone is, to the best of my knowledge I have never even heard the term."
-- Donald J. Trump, March 29, 2022

— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) March 29, 2022

More Ukraine

From CNN, Christiane Amanpour with former Russian legislator Ilya Ponomarev.

Money quote: "We will kill the bastard."

No matter who it is, I won't celebrate the destruction of a fellow human being. But I have to admit that somewhere in the back of my mind, when I hear the news that Putin is gone, part of me will be dancing.

We're looking straight at the key to beating Putin and freeing Russia - the 2 things that comprise one huge step in pushing back against the global spread of authoritarianism - and that key is Ukraine.

Ukraine

Via Reddit (r/ukraine)

A border guard named Roman was among the defenders on Snake Island in the first days of Russia's invasion - famous for their "Russian warship - fuck off" defiance in the face of disaster.

Feared dead, Roman was held POW until recently, when he and others were returned to Ukraine in a prisoner swap.

Partial translation:

It opens up with a head of Cherkass state administration (the man who gives out the medal) welcoming Roman, the border guard and saying “ It’s a pleasure to meet you. Like yourself, this award is honorable and I hope it will warm your soul to know it’s a Cherkass state award and we will always be happy to see you and work with you again and again. You are very valuable to us, just like everyone who defends our country. We will defeat as many enemies as needed, until our victory”. The video switches to the man talking in the background, saying “ Ukraine must know it’s heroes, so does the Cherkass oblast, we have yet again reaffirmed that our people are true Cossacks. Everything Roman said is truly relevant to Ukraine and the resilience we have in heart. Our people, despite torture and high pressure stay strong and well - they are a role model for all Ukrainians, proving that our spirit is unbreakable. It then switches to Roman - “I’d like to thank the people of Ukraine for such strong support, all of us truly feel it and it inspires us. The strength and truth is on our side, we will surely win. Glory to Ukraine ! “

Слава Україні

🌎❤️🇺🇦 

Today's Punk

Can you say "Stolen Valor"?

I knew you could.

Al-Jazeera:

What role is Chechnya’s Ramzan Kadyrov playing in Ukraine war?

Chechen forces deployed in Ukraine appear to be more of a ‘PR initiative’ than military utility, analysts say.

Just two days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine was launched, Ramzan Kadyrov, president of Russia’s Chechen Republic, announced his forces were deployed to the battlefield.

Since then, Chechnya’s leader has posted on social media regular updates and videos of Chechen soldiers allegedly participating in military and humanitarian activities on Ukrainian territory.

On March 14, he uploaded a video of himself in a room full of soldiers, saying he was with Chechen forces near the capital, Kyiv. The claim was not independently verified and Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said he had “no information” about Kadyrov being in Ukraine.

This was not the first time Chechen forces have been deployed to conflicts the Russian army has participated in. They also took part in the 2008 war in Georgia, the first phase of the conflict in Ukraine in 2014-15, and the Syrian war.

Observers, however, say despite their reputation as fierce fighters, Chechen forces sent to Ukraine have not played a significant role on the battlefield. Their presence has been perceived as a public relations exercise, one that reflects both Kadyrov’s own political posturing and the Kremlin’s propaganda needs.

Who is Ramzan Kadyrov?

Kadyrov came to power in 2007, three years after his father, former Chechen President Akhmad Kadyrov, was assassinated. The two fought in the first Chechen War (1994-96) on the side of pro-independence forces but in the Second Chechen War (1999-2000) switched sides and helped the Russian army defeat them. As a result, Chechnya lost its short-lived independence and became one of the regions of the Russian Federation.

Since coming to power, Kadyrov has stamped out political opposition and curbed human rights and freedoms. He has been accused of ordering torture and extrajudicial killings. A string of assassinations of Russian journalists and human rights activists have been linked to Chechnya, including the killing of Anna Politkovskaya in 2006 and Nataliya Estemirova in 2009, both of whom had criticised Kadyrov.A number of his Chechen critics who had sought asylum abroad have also been attacked and some killed, including Sulim Yamadayev, a former Chechen military commander, and Kadyrov’s former bodyguard Umar Israilov.

In 2017, the United States imposed sanctions on the Chechen president over his human rights record. The Treasury Department also linked him to the 2015 assassination of Boris Nemtsov, a prominent opposition leader and critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Kadyrov’s heavy-handed repression in Chechnya has drawn little reaction from Moscow. According to Russian journalist and political commentator Konstantin von Eggert, this is because of the political arrangement Putin struck with Kadyrov.

“Russia did not win the two Chechen wars. Russia was defeated,” Eggert said. “[There was] an unofficial understanding that Russia is going to finance Chechnya … and is going to leave Chechnya to manage its own affairs in exchange for peace.”

Throughout his 15-year tenure as Chechnya’s president, Kadyrov has presented himself as a guarantor of peace, cracking down on separatists and launching “anti-terrorism” operations. He has also regularly demonstrated his devotion to Putin in his rhetoric and political activity.

“The role of Kadyrov since he became president has been to show loyalty to Putin … and to serve as a boogeyman, a constant threat to Putin’s enemies,” Eggert said.

In return, the Chechen Republic has enjoyed significant subsidies from the Russian federal government, going as high as 87 percent of its budget, which have not been reduced even when austerity measures were imposed in the past.

Federal funds have also regularly gone into the Akhmad Kadyrov Fund, along with mandatory monthly contributions from the salaries of Chechen state and private company employees. The fund, which has been sanctioned by the US Treasury, is seen as Kadyrov’s financial tool and has been used for a variety of personal projects, including allegedly paying Western actors to attend his birthday.

‘Kadyrovtsy’ in Ukraine

The deployment of Chechen troops to Ukraine has been yet another act of loyalty from Kadyrov towards the Kremlin. In his February 26 video, he said: “The president took the right decision and we will carry out his orders under any circumstances.”

Kadyrov has claimed that Chechen volunteers ready to go to Ukraine are in the tens of thousands. A report from Russian state broadcaster RT reported some 12,000 Chechen troops were prepared to deploy to Ukraine, but there has been no confirmation of how many are actually on the ground.

According to Harold Chambers, a North Caucasus analyst, Chechen forces linked to Kadyrov – also known as “Kadyrovtsy” – were part of the convoy that headed to Kyiv and are also in the besieged city Mariupol.

“The Kadyrovtsy in Ukraine have been given conventional objectives (ie, neutralising Ukrainian leadership, counterinsurgency, stopping desertion), while playing a crucial part in Putin’s initial psychological warfare campaign,” Chambers told Al Jazeera.

Although Kadyrov has said Chechen forces are participating in the fighting, the claim has been challenged by Russian-backed separatists and some observers.

In a March 15 post on social media, Igor Girkin, a former commander of Russian-backed separatist forces in Donetsk, said Chechen soldiers had not participated in the fighting in Mariupol. In a March 16 interview, Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the Vostok battalion, part of the Donetsk separatist forces, said Chechen soldiers came to Mariupol ill-equipped.

“They showed up all wrapped up, pretty, bearded, dressed up … I looked around – light armoured vehicles. They had no support means,” Khodakovsky said.

Ruslan Leviev, founder of the Conflict Intelligence Team, a research collective that uses open-source data to map out Russian military activity, told Al Jazeera he has seen no evidence of Chechen forces participating in fighting.

“They stand behind the front line and do ‘pretty videos’, shouting ‘Akhmat – Strength!’ and ‘Allahu Akbar!’” he said.

Other Chechen forces are in Ukraine that have joined the Ukrainian side. They are part of the Dzhokhar Dudayev and Sheikh Mansur volunteer battalions, which were also engaged in fighting in eastern Ukraine in 2014-15. They are made up of Chechens who openly oppose Kadyrov, but according to Chambers, have not directly faced “Kadyrovtsy” on the front line so far.

The Dzhokhar Dudayev battalion is likely deployed to fight in the east, while Sheikh Mansur fighters are part of the forces protecting Kyiv, he said.

‘PR initiative’

Apart from claiming various military successes, Kadyrov has also posted on social media about Chechen soldiers distributing humanitarian aid, which he said had been bought with money from the Akhmad fund.

“There is a clear communication or PR task which is implemented by Chechen troops in Ukraine,” Grigory Shvedov, chief editor of Caucasus-focused Kavkazkiy Uzel media outlet, told Al Jazeera.

In his opinion, the deployment of Chechen forces to Ukraine is a chance for Kadyrov to demonstrate his usefulness after violence and insecurity in the North Caucasus declined in recent years, and the large subsidies Chechnya receives from the federal budget started to appear unjustified.

This comes as sanctions imposed on Russia as a result of the invasion are putting a significant strain on its federal budget and may undermine its ability to distribute funding to regional governments, including the Chechen one.

Kadyrov’s strategy of demonstrating loyalty and enthusiasm for the war seems to be working, particularly as reports have emerged that parts of the Russian political establishment and economic elite have opposed the invasion.

On March 16, during a meeting to discuss economic support for Russia’s federal regions, which Kadyrov attended along with other regional heads, Putin turned and thanked him for his service, adding “say hello to your guys”.

“This shows that this PR is not only a [Chechen] initiative, but something which is demanded from the highest level,” Shvedov said.

Apart from using Kadyrov’s communications tactics in the effort to win the information war at home and abroad, the Kremlin may soon resort to some of his other political strategies. According to Shvedov, the war in Ukraine is likely to increase the need for oppressive social control in Russia.

“The Chechenisation of Russian society after this tragedy in Ukraine will only increase. And it is not only repression itself, but also the use of power to build legitimacy,” he said. “We are already seeing [this] and the only question is how far it would go.”