Friday, May 16, 2014
Sweet Harmony (cover) --Maria Muldaur (Smokey Robinson)
If you can dream it, it can be done
And tho' a task was made for two,
It can still be done by one
And tho' a task was made for two,
It can still be done by one
Logical Fallacy # 13 - The Gambler's Fallacy
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future; likewise, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e. independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players.
Today's WTF
Idaho. (That's it - I've got nuthin' else cuz there's just nuthin' else to get.
Watch this clip and then tell me there's anything anybody can say to make sense of what's going on up in here.
You might be able to make one point: Gov Butch "insisted" on including the Wacko Biker and the Old Bible Sage, and maybe he did that to try to show people he's inclusive and not threatened by out-lying opinion, but - seriously, I mean...just...holy fuck, Idaho.
Watch this clip and then tell me there's anything anybody can say to make sense of what's going on up in here.
You might be able to make one point: Gov Butch "insisted" on including the Wacko Biker and the Old Bible Sage, and maybe he did that to try to show people he's inclusive and not threatened by out-lying opinion, but - seriously, I mean...just...holy fuck, Idaho.
Wednesday, May 14, 2014
The Adventures Of Voteman
The Danes are getting pretty insistent on the whole Get-Off-Your-Ass-And-Go-Vote thing.
hat tip = Democratic Underground
hat tip = Democratic Underground
A Prediction
Repubs continue trying to spin Benghazi into something more than the standard-issue mundane little fuck up that happens in big organizations every day. This one happened to get 4 of us killed in rather gruesome fashion - and of course that really sucks and I wish we could figure out how to keep that shit from going down - but since when did Americans getting killed in service to their country become so worrisome to Republicans? They love that shit.
Anyway, the point here is not about making trouble for Obama and that should be obvious to everybody outside of the Rube Demographic - the 25% of the GOP's voter base who'll swallow any dick the RNC waves in their face.
They'll do everything they can do to keep it all simmering; and I suspect they'll go on fishing for anything that Winger Media can use to fan the flames during the Mid-Terms, but the strategy is to make trouble for whoever the Dems run in 2016, and the tag line will be a redux from 2000 - "aren't you tired of all the scandal?"
They're betting on Hillary getting that Dem nomination, and since they're taking some real hits on their Do-Nothing-Block-Everything-Stall-For-Time-So-We-Can-Go-On-Doing-Nothing approach to "governance", recalling "The Scandal Fatigue" is about all they've got.
You know I'm right.
Anyway, the point here is not about making trouble for Obama and that should be obvious to everybody outside of the Rube Demographic - the 25% of the GOP's voter base who'll swallow any dick the RNC waves in their face.
They'll do everything they can do to keep it all simmering; and I suspect they'll go on fishing for anything that Winger Media can use to fan the flames during the Mid-Terms, but the strategy is to make trouble for whoever the Dems run in 2016, and the tag line will be a redux from 2000 - "aren't you tired of all the scandal?"
They're betting on Hillary getting that Dem nomination, and since they're taking some real hits on their Do-Nothing-Block-Everything-Stall-For-Time-So-We-Can-Go-On-Doing-Nothing approach to "governance", recalling "The Scandal Fatigue" is about all they've got.
You know I'm right.
Tuesday, May 13, 2014
One From The Rude One
This is a guy after my own heart:
5/12/2014
GOP Senator Marco Rubio Is a Frighteningly Stupid Man Who Thinks He's Ready to Be President
One-time Savior of the Republican Party, Senator Marco Rubio, he of the muy beneficial Cuban background (although, you know, Hispanics aren't idiots - believe it or not, they can tell a Mexican from a Puerto Rican from a Cuban), he of the parched lips, he of the allegedly once-reasonable side of the GOP, thinks he's all grown up and ready to be president of these here United States. Oh, sure, he was a bit coy during his Sunday interview, saying that his party of lunatics, whores, and lepers is just filled to the brim with potential candidates. But, yeah, he's ready.
And how can you tell he's ready? Because Marco Rubio talked about complex issues like a brain-damaged Twitchy commenter. "I think a president has to have a clear vision of where the country needs to go and clear ideas about how to get it there," he told ABC combover Jonathan Karl. And part of his clear vision is that you can go fuck yourself with your climate change.
When Karl asked him about it on Sunday, Rubio answered, "I don’t agree with the notion that some are putting out there, including scientists, that somehow, there are actions we can take today that would actually have an impact on what’s happening in our climate." Here's the fuckin' deal: unless you are a scientist and you have slam-dunk evidence in your hand, you don't get to disagree with the "notion" that nearly every climate scientist is wrong. It's like when a fan thinks he can tell the coaches of a pro football team what plays to run by screaming at them from the stands. You know, Senator, a law degree from the University of Miami entitles you to a lot of things. Ignorantly questioning climatologists with statements like "I do not believe that human activity is causing these dramatic changes to our climate the way these scientists are portraying it" is not one of them. "These scientists" will kick your ass all over your soon-to-be drowned state.
But let's put aside the usual blah-blah-blah climate change denialism. We're pretty much fucked there, and we're not gonna do a goddamned thing about it until we're having Road Warrior-esque drinking water battles. (*)
Instead, have a read of Rubio's erudite statements on how Democrats want to keep people working at Burger King: "I want people to look at the Republican Party as the party that shows them the way to a new American century versus a Democratic Party that shows us how this is the new normal and we just have to get used to it, that the cashier at Burger King will always be a cashier, and all he or she can hope for is an increase in the minimum wage...And what we say is: No, the cashier at Burger King might be a cashier today, but he or she will be a manager tomorrow, and maybe they're paying for school so she can be a doctor in 10 years."
In order to understand that mindbogglingly stupid paragraph, picture this: The skeleton of Ayn Rand has Marco Rubio sitting on her lap. She's got her bony hand up his ass, operating his mouth like the meat puppet he is. Got it?
What is the magical path by which that Burger King worker becomes a doctor, something that is totally within the realm of possibility? So let's use our brain TVs and imagine that Burger King worker. Let's call her "Claudette." Claudette maybe has her high school diploma, so let's say she's around 20. Chances are that, as a full-time worker at Burger King, she'll make somewhere around $7.40 an hour. Even after working a second job, she might make under $15,000 a year with no benefits. If you can imagine someone like that, she might inform you that, after three years at BK, "I still live at home with my mother and try to go to school on the side. I do dream of something more, but it's really hard to get jobs right now."
Oh, wait. We don't have to imagine Claudette because she's a totally fucking real Burger King employee.
How the fuck is she becoming a doctor, Senator Rubio? Only through the government helping through programs like student loans, health care, and, yes, a higher minimum wage so that she can actually save something and not just exist to serve your kids Whopper, Jrs. And Claudette's a best case scenario (other than middle class kids in high school, the GOP fantasy minimum wage workers). What if she had kids? A sick parent? No place to live? That's where government is supposed to step up and says, "Hey, you wanna be a doctor? Let us help you try to achieve that dream." Not "It's your fault you can't make more than $7.40 an hour after 3 years at Burger King."
Show us the way to the "new American century"? Motherfucker, it's 2014, not 2000. We're in the century, the real century. Deal with what's happening, to the climate, to the people, now, not in some fake future constructed in the cash-stuffed offices of think tanks and SuperPACs.
(* from Raw Story)
5/12/2014
GOP Senator Marco Rubio Is a Frighteningly Stupid Man Who Thinks He's Ready to Be President
One-time Savior of the Republican Party, Senator Marco Rubio, he of the muy beneficial Cuban background (although, you know, Hispanics aren't idiots - believe it or not, they can tell a Mexican from a Puerto Rican from a Cuban), he of the parched lips, he of the allegedly once-reasonable side of the GOP, thinks he's all grown up and ready to be president of these here United States. Oh, sure, he was a bit coy during his Sunday interview, saying that his party of lunatics, whores, and lepers is just filled to the brim with potential candidates. But, yeah, he's ready.
And how can you tell he's ready? Because Marco Rubio talked about complex issues like a brain-damaged Twitchy commenter. "I think a president has to have a clear vision of where the country needs to go and clear ideas about how to get it there," he told ABC combover Jonathan Karl. And part of his clear vision is that you can go fuck yourself with your climate change.
When Karl asked him about it on Sunday, Rubio answered, "I don’t agree with the notion that some are putting out there, including scientists, that somehow, there are actions we can take today that would actually have an impact on what’s happening in our climate." Here's the fuckin' deal: unless you are a scientist and you have slam-dunk evidence in your hand, you don't get to disagree with the "notion" that nearly every climate scientist is wrong. It's like when a fan thinks he can tell the coaches of a pro football team what plays to run by screaming at them from the stands. You know, Senator, a law degree from the University of Miami entitles you to a lot of things. Ignorantly questioning climatologists with statements like "I do not believe that human activity is causing these dramatic changes to our climate the way these scientists are portraying it" is not one of them. "These scientists" will kick your ass all over your soon-to-be drowned state.
But let's put aside the usual blah-blah-blah climate change denialism. We're pretty much fucked there, and we're not gonna do a goddamned thing about it until we're having Road Warrior-esque drinking water battles. (*)
Instead, have a read of Rubio's erudite statements on how Democrats want to keep people working at Burger King: "I want people to look at the Republican Party as the party that shows them the way to a new American century versus a Democratic Party that shows us how this is the new normal and we just have to get used to it, that the cashier at Burger King will always be a cashier, and all he or she can hope for is an increase in the minimum wage...And what we say is: No, the cashier at Burger King might be a cashier today, but he or she will be a manager tomorrow, and maybe they're paying for school so she can be a doctor in 10 years."
In order to understand that mindbogglingly stupid paragraph, picture this: The skeleton of Ayn Rand has Marco Rubio sitting on her lap. She's got her bony hand up his ass, operating his mouth like the meat puppet he is. Got it?
What is the magical path by which that Burger King worker becomes a doctor, something that is totally within the realm of possibility? So let's use our brain TVs and imagine that Burger King worker. Let's call her "Claudette." Claudette maybe has her high school diploma, so let's say she's around 20. Chances are that, as a full-time worker at Burger King, she'll make somewhere around $7.40 an hour. Even after working a second job, she might make under $15,000 a year with no benefits. If you can imagine someone like that, she might inform you that, after three years at BK, "I still live at home with my mother and try to go to school on the side. I do dream of something more, but it's really hard to get jobs right now."
Oh, wait. We don't have to imagine Claudette because she's a totally fucking real Burger King employee.
How the fuck is she becoming a doctor, Senator Rubio? Only through the government helping through programs like student loans, health care, and, yes, a higher minimum wage so that she can actually save something and not just exist to serve your kids Whopper, Jrs. And Claudette's a best case scenario (other than middle class kids in high school, the GOP fantasy minimum wage workers). What if she had kids? A sick parent? No place to live? That's where government is supposed to step up and says, "Hey, you wanna be a doctor? Let us help you try to achieve that dream." Not "It's your fault you can't make more than $7.40 an hour after 3 years at Burger King."
Show us the way to the "new American century"? Motherfucker, it's 2014, not 2000. We're in the century, the real century. Deal with what's happening, to the climate, to the people, now, not in some fake future constructed in the cash-stuffed offices of think tanks and SuperPACs.
(* from Raw Story)
By the end of this century, billions are likely to be gripped by water stress and the stuff of life could be an unseen driver of conflict.
So say hydrologists who forecast that on present trends, freshwater faces a double crunch -- from a population explosion, which will drive up demand for food and energy, and the impact of climate change.--and--
"Climate change can alter the availability of water and therefore threaten water security."
Already today, around 768 million people do not have access to a safe, reliable source of water and 2.5 billion do not have decent sanitation. Around a fifth of the world's aquifers are depleted.
Lost In The Noise
So, how come you sign all those petitions and you try to send money to 37 different organizations for 162 different campaigns and/or people and/or issues and/or causes, but nothing ever really gets done; and it always seems like the Congress Critters you're bombarding with all of this "input" send you "replies" that say practically nothing about anything you've been trying to get across to them?
Could somebody please explain to me why we're lagging behind places like Finland and Brazil, when we're talking about the high-tech tools that we fucking invented!?!
Here's the POPVOX website cited in the podcast.
Could somebody please explain to me why we're lagging behind places like Finland and Brazil, when we're talking about the high-tech tools that we fucking invented!?!
Here's the POPVOX website cited in the podcast.
Monday, May 12, 2014
The Illusion Of Asymmetric Insight
The Misconception: You celebrate diversity and respect others’ points of view.
The Truth: You are driven to create and form groups and then believe others are wrong just because they are others.
Well we all have a face
That we hide away forever
And we take them out and
Show ourselves
When everyone has gone
Some are satin some are steel
Some are silk and some are leather
They're the faces of the stranger
But we love to try them on
Well we all fall in love
But we disregard the danger
Though we share so many secrets
There are some we never tell
Why were you so surprised
That you never saw the stranger
Did you ever let your lover see
The stranger in yourself?
Don't be afraid to try again
Everyone goes south
Every now and then
You've done it, why can't
Someone else?
You should know by now
You've been there yourself
Once I used to believe
I was such a great romancer
Then I came home to a woman
That I could not recognize
When I pressed her for a reason
She refused to even answer
It was then I felt the stranger
Kick me right between the eyes
Well we all fall in love
But we disregard the danger
Though we share so many secrets
There are some we never tell
Why were you so surprised
That you never saw the stranger
Did you ever let your lover see
The stranger in yourself?
Don't be afraid to try again
Everyone goes south
Every now and then
You've done it why can't
Someone else?
You should know by now
You've been there yourself
You may never understand
How the stranger is inspired
But he isn't always evil
And he is not always wrong
Though you drown in good intentions
You will never quench the fire
You'll give in to your desire
When the stranger comes along.
The Truth: You are driven to create and form groups and then believe others are wrong just because they are others.
Well we all have a face
That we hide away forever
And we take them out and
Show ourselves
When everyone has gone
Some are satin some are steel
Some are silk and some are leather
They're the faces of the stranger
But we love to try them on
Well we all fall in love
But we disregard the danger
Though we share so many secrets
There are some we never tell
Why were you so surprised
That you never saw the stranger
Did you ever let your lover see
The stranger in yourself?
Don't be afraid to try again
Everyone goes south
Every now and then
You've done it, why can't
Someone else?
You should know by now
You've been there yourself
Once I used to believe
I was such a great romancer
Then I came home to a woman
That I could not recognize
When I pressed her for a reason
She refused to even answer
It was then I felt the stranger
Kick me right between the eyes
Well we all fall in love
But we disregard the danger
Though we share so many secrets
There are some we never tell
Why were you so surprised
That you never saw the stranger
Did you ever let your lover see
The stranger in yourself?
Don't be afraid to try again
Everyone goes south
Every now and then
You've done it why can't
Someone else?
You should know by now
You've been there yourself
You may never understand
How the stranger is inspired
But he isn't always evil
And he is not always wrong
Though you drown in good intentions
You will never quench the fire
You'll give in to your desire
When the stranger comes along.
Crushing On Elizabeth
From truthout.com:
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) introduced a bill addressing two of her top legislative priorities: The crushing burden of student debt and tax loopholes that allow the wealthiest Americans to shell out a smaller share of their incomes than do many of those in the middle class. The measure would allow people who took out student loans at a higher rate than they could get today to refinance their debt the same way one might refinance a home mortgage. It would also give people with high-interest private loans to roll them over into the Federal Direct Loan program.
The measure would cut into the government’s revenues, and Warren would make up that shortfall by implementing the “Buffett Rule,” which would raise taxes on those making $1 million or more in income.
Seriously, I wanna have babies with that woman.
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