A little hopium on a Tuesday morning.
May 26, 2026
May 25, 2026
The Runaway GOP
Republicans are scared shitless about the midterms, so they're moving to cancel out Democrats' seats in both the house and the Senate.
They knew last December they'd lose on the Epstein vote, so Mike "The Flaccid" Johnson sent them home early.
Johnson did the same thing last week when he knew he was going to lose on the War Powers resolution.
It takes for-fuckin'-ever sometimes, but so far, we've managed to get there every time. If we can stay engaged and keep paying attention, we'll get there this time too.
Iran
We had the deal - a way better deal than what dumbass Trump is chasing.
But it had one fatal flaw. It had Obama's name on it, and that's something Trump just can't stand. So he blew it up and now we'll be paying thru the nose for a long time.
Everything
Trump touches
turns to shit
Belle
She references Whirlpool CEO Mark Bitzer using the phrase "other recessionary periods" like the economy is already in recession.
With stocks soaring to fresh highs, recession may be the last thing on investors’ minds. But according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, America is uncomfortably close to one.
In a recent interview with TheStreet, Zandi said the odds of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months are now sitting at 40%.
“Just for context, in a typical economy, what economists would call the unconditional probability of recession is closer to 15%,” he said. “So, 40% is very elevated, very uncomfortable — it gives you a sense of how close I think things are to the edge here.”
Zandi’s warning came even after a better-than-expected jobs report, with the U.S. economy adding 115,000 jobs in April while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% (2).
But the headline number didn’t change his view.
“The labor market is still a vulnerability in the economy, still very soft,” he said, adding that recession risks remain “very high.”
Zandi said businesses remain reluctant to hire, with hiring rates “still very low across most industries.” Hours worked also remain depressed, which Zandi said is “kind of consistent with what you’d see in a recession.”
He also pointed to falling labor-force participation — meaning fewer people are actively working or looking for work — as a warning sign. If participation had stayed steady over the past year, Zandi said, the unemployment rate would be closer to 5%.
At the same time, inflation is becoming a bigger concern. Zandi said price pressures are picking up because of the Iran war, higher energy prices, tariffs and other factors — and that is eating into household purchasing power.
“Real disposable income — that’s after tax, after accounting for inflation — is no higher today than it was a year ago,” he said. “So, there’s been no growth in purchasing power, and that’s going to get worse and start declining.”
That pressure is already showing up in the choices consumers are making.
Zandi noted that wealthy households are drawing down savings to supplement their purchasing power and maintain spending. But lower- and middle-income households don’t have the same cushion.
“They’re living more paycheck to paycheck,” he said.
If Americans have to put more of their paychecks into the gas tank, he warned, they have less left over for everything else — from gym memberships to food choices.
“You’re gonna have to trade down. You can’t have beef — you gotta have chicken,” he said.
Stocks are not the economy
Meanwhile, Wall Street has been telling a very different story. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite have recently climbed to fresh highs.
To Zandi, that disconnect is part of the problem.
“The stock market’s not the economy,” he said. “In my 36 years as a professional economist, the stock market’s never been more disjointed from the economy.”
He attributed much of the market’s strength to artificial intelligence, especially large tech companies.
“What’s driving the stock market train is these big hyperscalers and chip companies,” he said, adding that the AI trade “runs on its own dynamic” and “has nothing to do with the economy.”
Zandi also said investors appear to be betting that President Donald Trump will pivot if the economy or markets start to wobble.
“Stock investors are looking at the president, the president’s looking at the stock market,” he said. “That doesn’t feel like a stable… equilibrium — it’s kind of like a hall of mirrors.”
⬆︎ That's a big red flag - if you're expected Trump to behave like a normal rational human being, you're in for a rude surprise.
Zandi also warned that valuations are stretched.
“Valuations are awfully high,” he said, noting that price-to-earnings multiples are near historic highs, “except for perhaps during the internet bubble, which didn’t end so well.”
Zandi isn’t alone in sounding the alarm. Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones has said that the market “feels exactly like 1999.”
Meanwhile, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway now holds $397.4 billion in cash — a record amount that many investors interpret as a signal of caution in an expensive market (3).
To be sure, markets are inherently volatile, and no forecast is guaranteed. But with valuations stretched and recession risk elevated, now may be a good time to consider how to diversify beyond traditional stocks.
Today's Today
There's no "happy" to it.
This is a day for remembering the fallen
The lost
Those who won't grow old with us
And yet they're still right here
Forever young
Forever by our sides
And will remain, for as long as we don't forget their names
I raise my glass to them
May 24, 2026
A Story
Two monks came upon a noblewoman standing at the edge of a stream, unable to cross without ruining her shoes and her gown.
The senior monk picked her up and carried her to the other side, setting her down, so she could be on her way.
The two monks continued walking, until the younger man stopped and demanded an explanation.
"We're forbidden from touching a woman. Why did you pick her up and carry her like that?"
The older monk replied, "I carried her for a very little distance hours ago, and put her down. We've walked a long way for a long time - why are you still carrying her?"
Erika On Hate Crimes
Purposeful, deliberate ignorance accomplishes nothing - it solves no problems. Because it's not supposed to.
The Slush Fund
I call it that because that's what it is, though it may be more accurate to call it The Brown Shirt Fund.
‘They were pissed’: Republican lawmakers were ‘screaming’ at Todd Blanche during anti-weaponization fund briefing
Ted Cruz said Trump could face a “full-on revolt in the Senate” over the controversial fund
Republican senators erupted behind closed doors this week as acting Attorney General Todd Blanche tried to defend the Trump administration’s controversial $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund, according to a prominent GOP lawmaker.
It was a meeting that Sen. Ted Cruz later described on his podcast as one of the “roughest” he has witnessed during his time in Congress.
“Fiery does not begin to cut it,” Cruz said Friday on his podcast, “Verdict with Ted Cruz.” “My guess is there’re probably 45 senators in the room, at least half of them were blasting the attorney general, and they were pissed.”
The “anti-weaponization” fund was announced Monday after Trump agreed to drop his $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS. Cruz said many GOP lawmakers argued the proposal would be politically impossible to defend because it appeared President Donald Trump had “cut a deal with himself,” NBC News reported.
“There were multiple senators yelling at the attorney general, saying this feels like self-dealing,” Cruz said. “I got to tell you, the Republican senators were pissed – people were the entire meeting. They were screaming at the acting attorney general, and he was trying to lay out the legal basis,” Cruz said. Cruz added that “the legal basis is quite sound.”
Cruz said Senate Republicans were on the verge of rebelling over the proposal. Had the Senate moved forward Thursday night with a planned series of votes on the ICE and Border Patrol funding package, he said, roughly half of the Republican caucus was prepared to join Democrats in supporting amendments to restrict the fund.
He discussed “the degree of the jailbreak of Republicans who were bolting, who were saying we’re going to vote with the Democrats.”
Cruz warned the administration could face a major showdown when lawmakers return to Washington if changes are not made to modify the fund.
“If the administration doesn’t fix this,” he said, “they’ve got a full-on revolt in the Senate.”
In response to Cruz’s comments, a White House official told The Independent they appreciated the conversation and feedback and will have additional conversations as needed. The Independent has also contacted the DOJ for comment.
Concerns about the fund have continued to spread among Republicans.
The White House “put themselves in a bad spot. It wasn’t Congress that did it. Congress has had no input. Might be part of the problem,” said Sen. Bill Cassidy.
Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., criticized it as a “payout pot for punks,” pointing to the possibility that people convicted in connection with the Jan. 6 Capitol riot could potentially receive compensation.
Democrats have also sharply condemned the proposal. Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., wrote in a letter to Blanche on Wednesday that “the notion of the federal government doling out compensation to rioters” is “absurd and offensive.”
On Thursday, Reps. Tom Suozzi, D-N.Y., and Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., introduced bipartisan legislation that would prohibit federal funds from being used for the program.
Trump posted on Truth Social on Friday, making clear that he wasn’t backing down on the fund.
“I could have settled my case…for an absolute fortune,” he wrote. “Instead, I am helping others, who were so badly abused.”
The Senate is scheduled to return June 1, which is the same day Trump has said he wants to sign the ICE and Border Patrol funding bill into law.
And I call Trump a dirty, thieving, racist asshole because that's what he is.
He's stealing from us - directly, and out in the open. He's treating the US Treasury like it's his own piggy bank. The Treasury - you know, the place where they keep all the tax money everybody loves to bitch about having to pay.
And don't start thinking Trump won't put himself first in line to receive compensation for having been "so badly mistreated by the government."
I'll say it again:
Trump is a whiny-butt little pussy who does nothing but bitch about how unfair it is that he's expected to play by the rules like everybody else.
TRUMP IS STEALING OUR MONEY
AND PUTTING IT IN HIS OWN POCKET,
OR HANDING IT TO DIRECTLY
TO HIS CRIMINAL FRIENDS
Ted Cruz said Trump could face a “full-on revolt in the Senate” over the controversial fund
Republican senators erupted behind closed doors this week as acting Attorney General Todd Blanche tried to defend the Trump administration’s controversial $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund, according to a prominent GOP lawmaker.
It was a meeting that Sen. Ted Cruz later described on his podcast as one of the “roughest” he has witnessed during his time in Congress.
“Fiery does not begin to cut it,” Cruz said Friday on his podcast, “Verdict with Ted Cruz.” “My guess is there’re probably 45 senators in the room, at least half of them were blasting the attorney general, and they were pissed.”
The “anti-weaponization” fund was announced Monday after Trump agreed to drop his $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS. Cruz said many GOP lawmakers argued the proposal would be politically impossible to defend because it appeared President Donald Trump had “cut a deal with himself,” NBC News reported.
“There were multiple senators yelling at the attorney general, saying this feels like self-dealing,” Cruz said. “I got to tell you, the Republican senators were pissed – people were the entire meeting. They were screaming at the acting attorney general, and he was trying to lay out the legal basis,” Cruz said. Cruz added that “the legal basis is quite sound.”
Cruz said Senate Republicans were on the verge of rebelling over the proposal. Had the Senate moved forward Thursday night with a planned series of votes on the ICE and Border Patrol funding package, he said, roughly half of the Republican caucus was prepared to join Democrats in supporting amendments to restrict the fund.
He discussed “the degree of the jailbreak of Republicans who were bolting, who were saying we’re going to vote with the Democrats.”
Cruz warned the administration could face a major showdown when lawmakers return to Washington if changes are not made to modify the fund.
“If the administration doesn’t fix this,” he said, “they’ve got a full-on revolt in the Senate.”
In response to Cruz’s comments, a White House official told The Independent they appreciated the conversation and feedback and will have additional conversations as needed. The Independent has also contacted the DOJ for comment.
Concerns about the fund have continued to spread among Republicans.
The White House “put themselves in a bad spot. It wasn’t Congress that did it. Congress has had no input. Might be part of the problem,” said Sen. Bill Cassidy.
Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., criticized it as a “payout pot for punks,” pointing to the possibility that people convicted in connection with the Jan. 6 Capitol riot could potentially receive compensation.
Democrats have also sharply condemned the proposal. Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., wrote in a letter to Blanche on Wednesday that “the notion of the federal government doling out compensation to rioters” is “absurd and offensive.”
On Thursday, Reps. Tom Suozzi, D-N.Y., and Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., introduced bipartisan legislation that would prohibit federal funds from being used for the program.
Trump posted on Truth Social on Friday, making clear that he wasn’t backing down on the fund.
“I could have settled my case…for an absolute fortune,” he wrote. “Instead, I am helping others, who were so badly abused.”
The Senate is scheduled to return June 1, which is the same day Trump has said he wants to sign the ICE and Border Patrol funding bill into law.
May 23, 2026
Who's Safe And Who's Not?
One of the hardest things to do right now is to sort thru the political bullshit to find out who's honestly "on the other side", and who's just willing to go along with the guys who're being racist fascist sexist dicks about everything in order to get the coupla things they're really interested in.
But that makes it even harder not to think anybody who still supports Trump - or his bootlicker GOP - is anything but a racist fascist sexist asshole themselves.
The quest continues.
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