May 20, 2026
You're Not Under-Babied
This gang of fuckwad fascists sounds more like proto-Handmaid's Tale every day.
May 19, 2026
A.I. Is Not Good
Things could change, but for now, and for what little future I can foresee, AI is a trillion-dollar toadie for CEOs who already have oversized egos, but are somehow in need of a little extra dopamine boost.
AI played war games and - surprise surprise - everybody gets a nuke up their ass.
Amanda Tuesday
Here's that story on inflation:
- The recent surge in inflation is likely to get worse over the next several months, according to a survey Friday from the nation's top economists.
- Consumer price inflation is projected to hit 6% for the second quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters, compared with 2.7% in the prior survey.
- The survey follows a slew of inflation data showing that prices paid both at the consumer and wholesale levels hit multiyear highs in April.
The recent surge in inflation is likely to get worse over the next several months, according to a survey Friday from the nation's top economists.
Consumer price inflation is projected to hit 6% for the second quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters, a blue-ribbon group that is polled each quarter by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
In the most recent forecast three months ago, the panel put the expected consumer price index gain at just 2.7%. However, that was just before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks against Iran, hostilities that have sent energy prices soaring while pushing inflation data well past the 2% mark the Fed targets.
For the full year, the panel put the CPI rate at 3.5% for the all-items number and 2.9% for core, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. That's up from estimates of 2.6% for both in the prior survey.
Elevated inflation levels are expected to persist into the third quarter, with headline CPI projected at 3% and core at 2.9%. Both levels are expected to ease by the end of the year, with the fourth quarter at 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively.
Still, the panel doesn't see the Fed hitting its goal well into the future. The 10-year projected annual average is at 2.4%, which the survey notes would be equivalent to 2.22% by the Fed's preferred standard, the personal consumption expenditures price index, a Commerce Department measure.
The PCE inflation rates also are expected to hold well above the Fed's comfort zone, though at not as high a level as the consumer price index, a Bureau of Labor Statistics compilation.
Headline PCE inflation is projected at 4.5% for the second quarter with core at 3.4%, compared with prior estimates of 2.7%.
The survey follows a slew of inflation data showing that prices paid both at the consumer and wholesale levels hit multiyear highs in April. Headline CPI showed inflation at a 3.8% rate, the highest in nearly three years, while the producer price annual inflation rate of 6% was the peak since December 2022.
All of the data comes as Kevin Warsh is set to assume the role of Fed chair. Though Warsh has indicated he would like to see lower interest rates, that is going to be difficult to accomplish with inflation data so high and the general sentiment among his fellow policymakers to keep rates steady with an open mind toward possible rate hikes if inflation worsens.
Elsewhere in the survey, forecasters lowered their outlook for growth in coming quarters. They expect gross domestic product to rise at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter and 2.2% for the full year, the latter down 0.3 percentage point from the prior estimate. Growth is projected to slow further to 1.9% in 2027 before bouncing back above 2% in subsequent years.
The unemployment rate this year is expected to settle around 4.5%, or 0.2 percentage point higher than the current level.
Consumer price inflation is projected to hit 6% for the second quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters, a blue-ribbon group that is polled each quarter by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
In the most recent forecast three months ago, the panel put the expected consumer price index gain at just 2.7%. However, that was just before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks against Iran, hostilities that have sent energy prices soaring while pushing inflation data well past the 2% mark the Fed targets.
For the full year, the panel put the CPI rate at 3.5% for the all-items number and 2.9% for core, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. That's up from estimates of 2.6% for both in the prior survey.
Elevated inflation levels are expected to persist into the third quarter, with headline CPI projected at 3% and core at 2.9%. Both levels are expected to ease by the end of the year, with the fourth quarter at 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively.
Still, the panel doesn't see the Fed hitting its goal well into the future. The 10-year projected annual average is at 2.4%, which the survey notes would be equivalent to 2.22% by the Fed's preferred standard, the personal consumption expenditures price index, a Commerce Department measure.
The PCE inflation rates also are expected to hold well above the Fed's comfort zone, though at not as high a level as the consumer price index, a Bureau of Labor Statistics compilation.
Headline PCE inflation is projected at 4.5% for the second quarter with core at 3.4%, compared with prior estimates of 2.7%.
The survey follows a slew of inflation data showing that prices paid both at the consumer and wholesale levels hit multiyear highs in April. Headline CPI showed inflation at a 3.8% rate, the highest in nearly three years, while the producer price annual inflation rate of 6% was the peak since December 2022.
All of the data comes as Kevin Warsh is set to assume the role of Fed chair. Though Warsh has indicated he would like to see lower interest rates, that is going to be difficult to accomplish with inflation data so high and the general sentiment among his fellow policymakers to keep rates steady with an open mind toward possible rate hikes if inflation worsens.
Elsewhere in the survey, forecasters lowered their outlook for growth in coming quarters. They expect gross domestic product to rise at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter and 2.2% for the full year, the latter down 0.3 percentage point from the prior estimate. Growth is projected to slow further to 1.9% in 2027 before bouncing back above 2% in subsequent years.
The unemployment rate this year is expected to settle around 4.5%, or 0.2 percentage point higher than the current level.
May 18, 2026
An Oldie
A politician has died and finds himself standing at the pearly gates, where St Peter is waiting.
"I was a little worried I wasn't gonna make it here - looks like good news for me", says the politician.
St Peter replies, "Hold on a minute. We need to make sure you're in the right place, and our god, being a fair god, you have a choice between heaven and hell, so let me show you the alternatives."
The politician joins St Peter in an elevator, and they go down and down and down.
The doors open, and in the distance, the politician sees a beautiful golf course, and in front of the clubhouse, all his old friends and lovers are standing and smiling and waving him over to them. They all eat a lavish supper, and drink vintage champagne, and dance to the best band anybody's ever heard. They skinny dip in the pool, and then pair off and retire to their rooms for a "nightcap" - or two - or three.
As night becomes day, St Peter tells the politician it's time to go check out heaven, so it's back to the elevator, and up they go.
As they arrive, they're surrounded by pleasant happy souls. They relax to beautiful music that seems to come from nowhere in particular, and they engage in stimulating, thought-provoking conversation about everything from the great philosophers to small talk about movies, and cooking, and car repair. They lounge by a lake - some swimming, some fishing, some water skiing, some just napping or reading to themselves. Everyone is happy and contented.
St Peter asks the politician if he's made his decision, and he answers, "Yeah - y'know - this is all really great, but I think I'll take you up on the offer to stay in hell."
Down they go, and when the elevator doors open, the landscape is barren and scorching, and the air stings his eyes and rasps on his throat as he breathes. In the distance, he sees people picking up garbage with their bare hands, as more garbage falls on them from the ugly yellow-brown sky.
The politician is stricken with the worst feeling of dread and despair that anyone's ever experienced. He turns to St Peter and cries, "What's all this? Yesterday it was beautiful - what have you done?"
St Peter steps into the elevator, and as the doors are closing, he says, "Yesterday, we were campaigning - today, you voted."
Trump's Polling Numbers
With the midterms nearing, President Trump’s approval rating has hit a second-term low as voters question his handling of the economy, according to the latest New York Times/Siena poll.
Most voters think President Trump made the wrong decision to go to war with Iran, a New York Times/Siena poll found, leaving the Republican Party on rocky political footing heading into the midterm elections as his approval rating sinks and economic concerns rise.
Majorities of voters said that the war was not worth the costs and held deeply pessimistic views about the economy.
Mr. Trump’s approval rating — a key historical predictor of how a president’s party will fare in an election — has sunk to a second-term low in Times/Siena polls of 37 percent amid the deeply unpopular Middle East conflict.
Nearly two-thirds of voters said that going to war had been the wrong decision, including almost three-quarters of politically crucial independents. Less than a quarter of all voters thought the conflict had been worth the costs.
Republicans broadly approved of Mr. Trump’s job performance and the war. But most other voters showed serious skepticism of his leadership on other top issues, including the economy and the cost of living. Sixty-four percent of all voters disapproved of his handling of the economy, long a strength for him, and majorities expressed negative views of how he was managing the cost of living, immigration and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Independent voters in particular have become unhappier with Mr. Trump. Sixty-nine percent disapproved of his job performance, up from 62 percent in a January Times/Siena poll. Forty-seven percent of independents said his policies had hurt them, up from 41 percent in fall 2025.
Overall, 44 percent of voters said Mr. Trump’s policies had hurt them personally, up from 36 percent last fall.
“He’s not doing what he said he was going to do,” said Brent Klein Jr., a Republican who voted for Mr. Trump in 2020 and 2024. “That’s my biggest frustration with him.”
Mr. Klein, 43, the owner of a cleaning company who lives in Branson, Mo., described himself as “very pissed off” with the president’s decision to attack Iran without seeking congressional approval.
“I just want my family to live a good, healthy life,” he added, and to not have to “constantly pay more and more and more for food products and stuff.”
Republican leaders still have some electoral advantages. The party has gained a structural edge on the House map through its push to redraw congressional maps in red states, netting the G.O.P. an edge of roughly six to 10 newly favorable districts.
And while the political environment has worsened for the president and his party, Democrats have yet to convince voters that they offer a compelling alternative. The poll indicated that Democrats have not improved their political brand, even after more than a year of trying to demonstrate that they understand the concerns of voters and can stand up to Mr. Trump.
Just 26 percent of voters said they were satisfied with the Democratic Party.
The discontent includes a significant number of Democrats who expressed reservations about their own party. Forty-four percent of Democrats described themselves as unsatisfied, while just 23 percent of Republicans said the same about their party.
“They’re just not fighting back hard enough in my eyes,” said Matthew Berryhill, 35, a recruiter from Marietta, Ga., a pivotal battleground area in the state’s key Senate race this year, who described himself as a progressive Democrat. “They come out with strong statements and strong words, and no action to back it up.”
Still, as both parties mobilize for expensive and bitter midterm contests, the survey suggests that Republican candidates are entering their general-election races with stark political liabilities.
In a hypothetical question about this year’s midterm elections, Democrats held an advantage of 10 percentage points among registered voters, with 50 percent saying they would back the party’s candidate if the elections were held today and 39 percent saying they would support the Republican. The Democratic edge among independent voters was 18 points, though 16 percent declined to choose a preferred party.
Even as many Americans have yet to fully tune into the midterms, early signs point to greater enthusiasm among Democratic voters. Democrats were eight points more likely to say they were “almost certain” they would vote.
As peace talks with Iran stall and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to raise energy prices, there is little public appetite for Mr. Trump to resume military operations against the country. A majority of voters, 52 percent, said he should not do so if a deal could not be reached soon to end Iran’s nuclear program.
And as lawmakers on Capitol Hill debate congressional war powers, 63 percent of voters — including 27 percent of Republicans — said the president should not be able to use military force without congressional approval.
Still, large majorities of the president’s core supporters support the war with Iran and want it to continue. Seventy percent of Republicans thought that military operations should resume if a deal were not reached, and 73 percent expected the war to successfully eliminate Iran’s nuclear program.
“I think nipping it in the bud before they can get a nuclear weapon is in our best interest,” said Amanda Mann, 44, an in-home nurse in Myrtle Creek, Ore. “They’re constantly shouting ‘death to America.’ So why not protect us before they can get us?”
Views of the economy have darkened since Mr. Trump began to bomb Iran in late February. Since the start of the war, the average cost of a gallon of gasoline has surged to more than $4.50 a gallon, according to the AAA motor club. In recent weeks, several economic indicators, including consumer confidence, prices and household debt, have worsened.
The survey results reflect a growing sense of financial anxiety across the country. The share of voters who rate the economy as “poor” has risen by 11 percentage points since January, up to nearly half of all voters giving the worst rating for the economy. Even Republicans were evenly split, with roughly half saying the economy was only fair or poor.
The share of voters saying the country was on the right track fell by five points, from 37 percent in January to 32 percent in the latest poll. The decline was driven largely by a drop of 12 points among Republicans.
Approval of the president on economic issues has also notably declined from the beginning of the year.
Only 28 percent of voters in the poll believed he had handled the issue of the cost of living well, a drop of six points from January.
Among Republicans, there was a drop of 14 points since January.
“In the beginning, the economy was doing great, and he was doing what he was supposed to do” said Francine Alfano, 56, who voted for Mr. Trump in 2024. “Once we went into war, everything changed.”
Ms. Alfano, who owns a food truck in Vineland, N.J., said higher costs for gas and food had hurt her business.
“It’s terrible,” she said. “Everything’s terrible. It’s totally affected me.”
In recent days, Mr. Trump has brushed off such economic concerns. As the poll was being conducted last week, he told reporters that the financial situation of Americans did not motivate him — “even a little bit” — to end the war with Iran.
“I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation,” he added. “I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing: We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon.”
Mr. Trump’s most favorable issue remains immigration, where his approval rating has largely held steady at 41 percent.
“Basically the only thing I can say that he’s doing right is to crack down on the illegal immigration,” said Ronald Marsh, 66, a retired professor of computer science in Grand Forks, N.D., who voted for Mr. Trump three times. “But pretty much everything else at this point is questionable.”
Erika
- System Justification
- The Just World Bias
- Stockholm Syndrome
- Social Dominance Orientation
- False Consciousness
- Temporarily Embarrassed Millionaire
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