Jun 19, 2017
Today's Wonderment
David Brooks - NYT:
He is thus the all-time record-holder of the Dunning-Kruger effect, the phenomenon in which the incompetent person is too incompetent to understand his own incompetence. Trump thought he’d be celebrated for firing James Comey. He thought his press coverage would grow wildly positive once he won the nomination. He is perpetually surprised because reality does not comport with his fantasies.
--and--
Our institutions depend on people who have enough engraved character traits to fulfill their assigned duties. But there is perpetually less to Trump than it appears. When we analyze a president’s utterances we tend to assume that there is some substantive process behind the words, that it’s part of some strategic intent.
But Trump’s statements don’t necessarily come from anywhere, lead anywhere or have a permanent reality beyond his wish to be liked at any given instant.
As driftglass is consistently pointing out for us, David Brooks is the Poodliest of all the Pundit Poodles, and he's paid handsomely to maintain the Both Sides bullshit. But oddly, there's no razor blade hidden in this particular apple. Brooks puts up a very sharp critique of 45* and manages to get through the whole piece without saying it's all the liberals' fault because of they smoked some pot 50 years ago, or "But what about those Democrats?"
Won't wonders never cease?
He is thus the all-time record-holder of the Dunning-Kruger effect, the phenomenon in which the incompetent person is too incompetent to understand his own incompetence. Trump thought he’d be celebrated for firing James Comey. He thought his press coverage would grow wildly positive once he won the nomination. He is perpetually surprised because reality does not comport with his fantasies.
--and--
Our institutions depend on people who have enough engraved character traits to fulfill their assigned duties. But there is perpetually less to Trump than it appears. When we analyze a president’s utterances we tend to assume that there is some substantive process behind the words, that it’s part of some strategic intent.
But Trump’s statements don’t necessarily come from anywhere, lead anywhere or have a permanent reality beyond his wish to be liked at any given instant.
As driftglass is consistently pointing out for us, David Brooks is the Poodliest of all the Pundit Poodles, and he's paid handsomely to maintain the Both Sides bullshit. But oddly, there's no razor blade hidden in this particular apple. Brooks puts up a very sharp critique of 45* and manages to get through the whole piece without saying it's all the liberals' fault because of they smoked some pot 50 years ago, or "But what about those Democrats?"
Won't wonders never cease?
Today's Tweet
When you post a controversial tweet pic.twitter.com/O3AyICAqTz— Gautam Trivedi (@Gotham3) June 17, 2017
Jun 18, 2017
Putting Up With It
From Elle:
HARRIS: You referred to a longstanding DOJ policy. Can you tell us what policy it is you're talking about?
SESSIONS: Well, I think most cabinet people, as the witnesses, uh, you had before you earlier, those individuals declined to comment. Because we're all about conversations with the President —
HARRIS: Sir, I'm just asking you about the DOJ policy you referred to.
SESSIONS: — a longstanding policy that goes beyond just the Attorney General.
Every American, when listening to (mostly) GOP pus-brains who can't quite figure out how to construct the next several lies in order to maintain the false reality they created with that first fucking lie:
HARRIS: You referred to a longstanding DOJ policy. Can you tell us what policy it is you're talking about?
SESSIONS: Well, I think most cabinet people, as the witnesses, uh, you had before you earlier, those individuals declined to comment. Because we're all about conversations with the President —
HARRIS: Sir, I'm just asking you about the DOJ policy you referred to.
SESSIONS: — a longstanding policy that goes beyond just the Attorney General.
Every American, when listening to (mostly) GOP pus-brains who can't quite figure out how to construct the next several lies in order to maintain the false reality they created with that first fucking lie:
Give It Up
The Press Poodles (and way too many politicians and their constituents) are still taking everything 45* says as something deserving of the kind of respect most of us have paid to everything every POTUS has said or done up until now.
Even The Shrub - the guy who knew practically nothing but what Darth Cheney told him to sell us.
Schiff: "We don't have one ethical standard for this president and a different ethical standard for other presidents." pic.twitter.com/SUKMMU8kaV— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) June 18, 2017
An example from Lawfare Blog:
In the normal course of events, the announcement by DHS that it would ban large electronic devices from direct flights originating at ten airports in the Middle Eastwould excite a great deal of comment. Technologists would speculate as to the nature of the potential new bomb threat. Intelligence-types would be curious as to the provenance of the intelligence -- was it SIGINT or HUMINT? Law and policy folk would ask about the legal underpinnings and debate the policy's scope and wisdom. But, in the normal course, nobody (I submit) would doubt the underlying bona fides of those who had adopted the policy. We might think they were unwise, mistaken, or foolish -- but nobody (save a few on the fringes) would have thought it was a sham. If this policy had been announced by President Obama, or Bush, or Clinton the salience of speculation as to a sham would be literally zero. We would allow our professionals at TSA and DHS the presumption of regularity in their work.
Not so with President Trump. My GWU colleague Henry Farrell and his co-author Abraham Newman have speculated, in the Washington Post, that the real reason for the device ban was in retaliation for unfair subsidies provided to the Gulf airlines by their governments. As they write:
It may not be about security. Three of the airlines that have been targeted for these measures — Emirates, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways — have long been accused by their U.S. competitors of receiving massive effective subsidies from their governments. These airlines have been quietly worried for months that President Trump was going to retaliate. This may be the retaliation.
The presumption has to be: Until or unless it proves out, nothing this 45* guy says or does is legit.
An Oldie
Let's not forget we were warned - by lotsa people.
And almost weirdly, the Libertarians were among the most sharply critical of 45*:
And almost weirdly, the Libertarians were among the most sharply critical of 45*:
Jun 16, 2017
Daddy State Darkness
Vox:
Senate Republicans can't answer simple and critical questions about the health care bill they're crafting in secret.
Some still can't say what it's trying to do — other than garner enough votes to pass the Senate — or how they believe it will improve the American health care system.
Read the "answers" from the various GOP Senators - classic weaselry.
I still have to hesitate a little even though I'm sorely tempted just to pronounce the thing bullshit, but it's like there are more (and major) flags on this thing every time we turn around.
First - they're operating in secret. Maybe because they can't afford to let us see what they're doing. But maybe because they're not really doing anything - they could be stalling because...
...second, by stalling and making noise about repeal and pimping the "skyrocketing premiums" expectation, they're creating the uncertainty they're expecting will drive the Obamacare Exchanges to stumble and crash, as they keep encouraging the insurers to bail, using the uncertainty bullshit as an excuse.
1) Fuck up Obamacare
2) Point at it and say, "Oh look - Obamacare's all fucked up"
3) Tell the insurance carriers to play along because you'll reward them for their loyalty by boosting their profits with Tax Dollars etc
4) Send copious amounts of emails and other fundraising literature to everybody with a financial interest in Healthcare Insurance reminding them of your largesse
5) Celebrate your re-election
Daddy State 101:
The Daddy State can only operate in the dark because when the light goes on, they all skitter back under the dishwasher.
There Are No Trees In That Forest
Wired:
The Canadian research icebreaker CCGS Amundsen, an Arctic expedition vessel, will not be venturing north for its planned trip this year. The highly anticipated voyage aimed to monitor and understand the effects of climate change on Arctic marine and coastal ecosystems. But due to warming temperatures, Arctic sea ice is unexpectedly in motion, making the trip far too dangerous for the Amundsen and the scientists it would be carrying. In other words, the climate change study has been rendered unsafe by climate change.
The Canadian research icebreaker CCGS Amundsen, an Arctic expedition vessel, will not be venturing north for its planned trip this year. The highly anticipated voyage aimed to monitor and understand the effects of climate change on Arctic marine and coastal ecosystems. But due to warming temperatures, Arctic sea ice is unexpectedly in motion, making the trip far too dangerous for the Amundsen and the scientists it would be carrying. In other words, the climate change study has been rendered unsafe by climate change.
Today's Tweet
I wonder if @SarahHuckabee would like to defend this now?— Athyvaya (@athyvaya) June 15, 2017
No? A giant hypocrite like the rest of the GOP. "Bad for my opponent, OK for me." pic.twitter.com/z9KdOwOTYb
Jun 15, 2017
Rhythmic Displacement
I don't mind being terminally white - it is my genetic lot.
But I don't have to be hopelessly so. I can do something about it in the meantime.
Karma's A Bitch
Led by GOP Whip Steve Scalise, the skullduggerers in the US House of Representatives have been busily disassembling the rules regarding the sale and ownership of guns.
I'm not celebrating the shooting of Mr Scalise, btw, so you can stuff that one right back in your ditty bag. That said, I'm not surprised this shit finally caught up with 'em; and I'm not surprised they've kept very quiet about it - possibly waiting for the Focus Group results to inform the Image Consultants on how best to respond, in order to keep the votes and the lobby money they use to buy those votes.
I am saying we need to drop the knee-jerk reactions and admit that this might've been averted if we took the Safety thing more seriously - or the Background Check thing - or the Magazine Capacity thing - or the simple fact that adding a random guy's gun to any mix is always plenty of justification for the good guys' assholes to pucker up.
To be fair (which I don't do lightly cuz the Ammosexuals rarely play fair in turn), they didn't really make it easier for nutballs to buy guns, in spite of what the Leftie Memes often claim.
But also to be fair: Like I said, the Radical Right continues to pimp the NRA bullshit about guns making us safer.
What makes me think they're wrong?
- Why can't you carry a gun in a police station?
- Why can't you carry a gun on an Army base?
- Why can't you carry a gun into a courtroom?
- Why can't you carry a gun on a commercial aircraft?
Because, for fuck's sake, it's not fucking safe, you fucking morons.
Sounds About Right
Vox:
The gubernatorial primaries in Virginia on Tuesday were supposed to be about the fight over the Democratic Party’s soul.
National profile after national profile of the race (including Vox’s) focused on the battle between Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam and former Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA). Did it represent a Bernie Sanders versus Hillary Clinton rematch? Or a key test run for the populist progressive movement?
Then the election was held, and a different storyline caught the political world off-guard. Northam, with the overwhelming support of Virginia Democratic officials across the state, crushed Perriello by 14 points. What shocked observers instead was the Republican primary, where Corey Stewart — a Confederate sympathizer and onetime campaign official for Donald Trump — came within just 1.2 points of beating former Republican National Committee Chair Ed Gillespie.
Like Jeb Bush in the Republican presidential campaign, Gillespie entered the race with massive advantages in spending, official endorsements, and name recognition. By contrast, Stewart attacked Gillespie online as a “cuckservative,” accused his opponent of treating “Donald Trump like he had typhoid,” and vowed to crackdown on immigrants and protect Confederate monuments if elected. It was quite a comeback: This fall, Stewart was fired from his position as Trump’s Virginia campaign chair after calling the RNC “establishment pukes” on Facebook.
And he almost won...
--and--
The theory didn’t prove to be true that there were thousands and thousands of populist, angry Democrats who would be willing to take a chance on somebody who hadn’t — prior to announcing his campaign for governor in January 2017 — spent more than two years in Virginia elected public life. And who, since then, had been out of the country most of the time.
Perriello’s mistake was that Perriello himself was not enough to win — there needed to be more relationships; there needed to be more connections; he had to know local Democratic committees and local Democratic officials.
At the end of the day, one reason Northam won was because you couldn’t go to any Democratic committee — or any Democratic chair or any elected Democrat in the state — who didn’t know Northam and hadn’t talked to him. At the end of the day, that makes a difference.
Perriello simply didn’t have those kinds of relationships. There was a lot of “energy” behind him, but it really wasn’t enough because Perriello hadn’t been working the Democratic electorate like Northam had been for more than a decade.
It's still the ground game that matters. The spread of the establishment's tendrils in the body politic is wide and deep throughout both national parties (we knew that - nuthin' new there).
The difference remains though:
Dems seem to be voting against their candidates by either staying home or by voicing their strong discontent, which makes it more likely for others to stay home.
Repubs have done the same in the past, but it looks like they've gotten to the point where the Tribal Loyalty thing has recently been strong enough to get them out to vote even when it's obvious to everybody else that voting for "their candidate" is voting against their own best interests.
Now, maybe we're seeing a natural backlash on the GOP side, where people woke up badly hungover and found themselves in bed with nothing but torn condoms and a sore butthole. When the Trump guy craps out in Virginia, it could be a very good sign. But like the Vox piece says, he came a pretty close second.
Perriello got squashed by 14 points, but he was running on a "Progressive Agenda" that just makes too much sense - people love to squawk about wanting a common sense approach to governing, but when somebody steps into the ring with almost exactly what they say they want, they see it as radical and it scares 'em off (?) Plus, "Progressive" is a dirty word to "conservatives".
Skipping to the chase - given the concentrated fervor of Radical Right Republicans for almost any kind of Trump-ish insurgency, Stewart losing by less than 2 points could be seen as a blowout in favor of restoring some level of sanity on GOP side.
And Perriello getting blown out by 14 when he has no infrastructure in place and no support from any of the top 10 Virginia Dems (and let's face it - the guy has a charisma rating somewhere between Droopy Dog and day-old guacamole) - that one starts to look a lot closer than the numbers are showing.
It ain't over, kids.
The gubernatorial primaries in Virginia on Tuesday were supposed to be about the fight over the Democratic Party’s soul.
National profile after national profile of the race (including Vox’s) focused on the battle between Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam and former Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA). Did it represent a Bernie Sanders versus Hillary Clinton rematch? Or a key test run for the populist progressive movement?
Then the election was held, and a different storyline caught the political world off-guard. Northam, with the overwhelming support of Virginia Democratic officials across the state, crushed Perriello by 14 points. What shocked observers instead was the Republican primary, where Corey Stewart — a Confederate sympathizer and onetime campaign official for Donald Trump — came within just 1.2 points of beating former Republican National Committee Chair Ed Gillespie.
Like Jeb Bush in the Republican presidential campaign, Gillespie entered the race with massive advantages in spending, official endorsements, and name recognition. By contrast, Stewart attacked Gillespie online as a “cuckservative,” accused his opponent of treating “Donald Trump like he had typhoid,” and vowed to crackdown on immigrants and protect Confederate monuments if elected. It was quite a comeback: This fall, Stewart was fired from his position as Trump’s Virginia campaign chair after calling the RNC “establishment pukes” on Facebook.
And he almost won...
--and--
The theory didn’t prove to be true that there were thousands and thousands of populist, angry Democrats who would be willing to take a chance on somebody who hadn’t — prior to announcing his campaign for governor in January 2017 — spent more than two years in Virginia elected public life. And who, since then, had been out of the country most of the time.
Perriello’s mistake was that Perriello himself was not enough to win — there needed to be more relationships; there needed to be more connections; he had to know local Democratic committees and local Democratic officials.
At the end of the day, one reason Northam won was because you couldn’t go to any Democratic committee — or any Democratic chair or any elected Democrat in the state — who didn’t know Northam and hadn’t talked to him. At the end of the day, that makes a difference.
Perriello simply didn’t have those kinds of relationships. There was a lot of “energy” behind him, but it really wasn’t enough because Perriello hadn’t been working the Democratic electorate like Northam had been for more than a decade.
It's still the ground game that matters. The spread of the establishment's tendrils in the body politic is wide and deep throughout both national parties (we knew that - nuthin' new there).
The difference remains though:
Dems seem to be voting against their candidates by either staying home or by voicing their strong discontent, which makes it more likely for others to stay home.
Repubs have done the same in the past, but it looks like they've gotten to the point where the Tribal Loyalty thing has recently been strong enough to get them out to vote even when it's obvious to everybody else that voting for "their candidate" is voting against their own best interests.
Now, maybe we're seeing a natural backlash on the GOP side, where people woke up badly hungover and found themselves in bed with nothing but torn condoms and a sore butthole. When the Trump guy craps out in Virginia, it could be a very good sign. But like the Vox piece says, he came a pretty close second.
Perriello got squashed by 14 points, but he was running on a "Progressive Agenda" that just makes too much sense - people love to squawk about wanting a common sense approach to governing, but when somebody steps into the ring with almost exactly what they say they want, they see it as radical and it scares 'em off (?) Plus, "Progressive" is a dirty word to "conservatives".
Skipping to the chase - given the concentrated fervor of Radical Right Republicans for almost any kind of Trump-ish insurgency, Stewart losing by less than 2 points could be seen as a blowout in favor of restoring some level of sanity on GOP side.
And Perriello getting blown out by 14 when he has no infrastructure in place and no support from any of the top 10 Virginia Dems (and let's face it - the guy has a charisma rating somewhere between Droopy Dog and day-old guacamole) - that one starts to look a lot closer than the numbers are showing.
It ain't over, kids.
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