Well Well Well

Wouldja looky there.

At least we've still got some foreign Press Poodles keeping an eye on things for us.

Mr Global

Mr Global

Cynical Mike says, when information is suppressed, it's almost a sure thing that somebody is benefiting from it.

Mr Global

The Dirty Fuels Cartel cares nothing for silly things like governments, or national borders, or the lives of ordinary people who they believe can only do small things for them.

And in case you needed reminding, no - there is no honor among thieves.

Inside The Secret Russian-Iranian Military-Energy-Pipeline Laundering Machine

• Russian and Iranian crude is being blended into Kazakhstan’s CPC oil exports, allowing sanctioned barrels to reach Europe under Kazakh documentation.
• Discounted Iranian oil is financing Russian military supplies to Tehran, including missiles and surveillance technology, through an alleged oil-for-arms arrangement.
• Russia and Iran are reportedly preparing to exploit the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline from 2027, potentially routing 600,000–750,000 bpd through the corridor to circumvent Western sanctions.

As has been proven time and time again in multiple scenarios: ‘Where there’s a will, there’s a way around any sanctions’ and, despite looming deadlines to end all Russian oil and gas imports -- with promises to keep reducing them before that -- the European Union (EU) appears to be continuing to play a sanctions-skirting game with Moscow. Under the strict terms of Regulation (EU) 2026/261, a hard legal cliff drops on 1 January 2027, completely banning all long-term Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, followed by a total phase-out of remaining piped gas and crude exemptions by the end of that same year. On paper, the West’s regulatory chokehold on the Kremlin’s war machine in Ukraine is reaching its absolute zenith. In reality, however, a massive, highly sophisticated infrastructure back door has been swung wide open for Russia and Iran to exploit, but which keeps European grids alive through a toxic, sanctions-busting military-energy swap between Moscow and Tehran.

In terms of Russian crude oil exports continuing to be transported specifically via pipeline to Europe -- which the EU has committed to completely phase out by 31 December 2027 -- the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) is the primary, active corridor through which the EU effectively evades its own sanctions framework, and that of the U.S., as managed by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). While the EU has officially banned seaborne imports of Russian crude, the ‘CPC Blend’ crude oil stream -- which terminates at and ships from the Russian port of Novorossiysk -- was granted a specific legal exemption by Brussels on 3 June 2022. This carve-out was justified on the grounds that the underlying volumes originate in Kazakhstan. Since that date, annual throughput of this supposedly Kazakh-only crude oil has surged from 52 million metric tonnes -- around 1.04 million barrels per day (bpd) -- to a record-breaking 72 million metric tonnes: a massive 38.5% increase. However, over that period, Kazakhstan’s actual domestic oil production has grown less than 2%, with its true crude oil output this year having fallen significantly due to operational disruptions and strict OPEC+ quota limits. According to a very senior EU source in its energy security complex exclusively spoken to by OilPrice.com last week, the huge discrepancy between the crude oil volume rise in the CPC over the period and Kazakhstan’s own oil output volume over the period represents the active ‘ghost volume’ where a heavily discounted cocktail of Russian crude -- mixed with Iranian oil -- is being quietly blended and laundered straight to European destinations completely outside the G7-monitored Russian shadow fleet.

This is not merely an energy laundering operation -- it is a direct, infrastructure-backed financing mechanism for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its terrorist proxies around the world. Deeply embedded in the trade is Khatam al-Anbiya, the engineering and industrial wing of the IRGC, alongside the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC). Because Tehran cannot easily conduct transactions via Western financial networks, for reasons fully analysed in my latest book on the new global oil market order, it is allocating massive tranches of crude directly to the IRGC and its proxies to cover expenses and to pay Moscow for advanced Russian military hardware and software. This includes specialised air-to-air missiles, ‘Verba’ man-portable air-defence systems and real-time Russian orbital surveillance and satellite data that directly aids the IRGC in tracking Western and regional military installations, among many others. According to the EU source, this Iranian crude is transferred to Russia at a staggering discount of 35% to 42%, and then seamlessly integrated into Russia’s domestic pipeline matrix via a rapidly expanding fleet of non-aligned tankers in the secure, unmonitored waters of the Caspian Sea. It is then pushed into the CPC network under forged Kazakh certificates.

As devastating as this active CPC loophole is for Western policy credibility, things are set to become much worse. With Russia (and therefore Iran) facing an imminent capacity crunch as the EU’s statutory 31 December 2027 phase-out date approaches, the EU source highlights that Moscow and Tehran are organising a clandestine operational pivot to integrate the highly strategic Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline into this exact Russian-Iranian-Kazakh mix. To lay the groundwork for this upcoming shift, Moscow, Tehran, and Astana are already utilising the public corporate media to build a plausible cover story. The official press release frames this as a purely commercial diversification strategy by state energy giant KazMunayGas (KMG) to mitigate the ‘geopolitical instability’ of the Russian-controlled CPC route. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s energy ministry director of oil transportation and refining, Daulet Arykbayev, stated on 1 October that Kazakhstan aims to increase its crude supply through the BTC pipeline, which runs from Azerbaijan to Turkey, to 7 million metric tons per year (mtpy). To put that into context, Kazakhstan exported 1.2 million mtpy of oil via the BTC in 2025 and around 700,000 metric tons in the first half of this year, according to KazTransOil.

“That’s clearly a huge increase -- more than five-fold -- from a country whose domestic oil production is declining, and which never sent anywhere near that amount through the BTC,” said the EU source. “We believe this sudden, aggressive pivot to the BTC corridor starting in February [2027] is specifically timed to act as the primary, next-generation relief valve for the heavily discounted Russian-Iranian military-energy swap,” he told OilPrice.com. Indeed, the clandestine blueprint centred on the Northern Corridor -- the trans-Caspian land and sea route that physically links Iran and Russia through the Caspian Sea, connecting them directly into the South Caucasus transit grid -- aims to pump a staggering 600,000 to 750,000 bpd through the BTC by March-April 2027. That is a volume equivalent to nearly half of Kazakhstan’s entire OPEC+ national production quota, which is currently locked at 1.628 million bpd. “Kazakhstan’s target is highly improbable, given existing infrastructure limits, meaning the massive deficit can only be met by the illicit introduction of heavily discounted oil from the Russian-Iranian crude swap,” he concluded.

Ultimately, the upcoming February 2027 pipeline pivot exposes the official Western sanctions timeline as little more than political theatre. As the front doors to Russian and Iranian energy are legally bolted shut, the infrastructure of the South Caucasus is being systematically re-engineered to absorb the overflow. For global oil markets, the message is clear: the volume will always find a way to flow. By the time the EU officially celebrates its total detachment from Russian crude at the end of 2027, the illicit, heavily discounted flows running through Ceyhan will have already become the global market’s worst-kept and most lucrative open secret.

Trump's Deal

Trump's amazing deal for 300K tons of Russian diesel will carry us for about 18 minutes.

All told, we get less than 2 hours of fuel spread over 3 months, while Putin gets the sanctions lifted so he can make billions that he'll use to kill Ukrainians.

Iran

I remember when the old analog gas pumps had to be re-jiggered to accommodate prices nobody thought would ever occur.

There are stories coming out now that the signs used by gas stations to advertise their prices have reached their max as the price goes over $10 a gallon in California.

This is bad, and it's gonna get worse.

Dirty Fuels

The numbers are getting scarier.

Iran Update

I get the feeling Trump is bored with it, and he's leaving it all up to his underlings so he can just blow it off, thinking that gives him some kind of plausible deniability as he skates away. Of course, he'll blame Hegseth or the generals or Barbra Streisand, or whatever the fuck.

The problem Hegseth's got now is that he's losing what little support he had. He's firing everybody with the brains and the guts they have to have to serve at those upper levels, so whoever's left will likely just pull the levers they're told to pull and the greatest military force in the history of the galaxy will just fizzle out with a resounding pffft.

And the bigger problem is that nobody can get thru to either Hegseth or Trump that this war is a waste of time, energy, money, material, and people. Continuing it is a perfect example of the Sunk Cost Fallacy.

Today's Trump Scam Explained

The Deal Is Not A Deal

You know it's a lie because it's something Trump said.

Mr Global

Notice how Vance softens the term "nationalism" by adding the modifier "economic", making it sound less fascist-y.

Mr Global

Mr Global

The triple whammy:

• The Strait of Hormuz is closed
• The Bab el-Mandeb is closed
• Russia's main oil hub at Novorossiysk is closed

Some very important arteries of world trade - particularly, but not limited to, oil - are being strangled.

The ships can make it through the Suez Canal, but the canal is too shallow to accommodate the big ones, so they have to go half full or the shippers have to down size their boats.

Delivery to Asian customers will take an extra 40 days, and the shippers are sending half the volume to customers who aren't lowering their demand.

Again:

How is this not being leveraged by Democrats to push harder for a conversion away from The Dirty Fuels Cartel?

It's Coming

We've been drilling for oil for 160 years, and it's never been enough.

Fuel Things

 Per Google AI

You can put E15 (Unleaded 88) in most cars manufactured after 2000, including flexible-fuel vehicles (FFVs).

However, it is not safe for motorcycles, boats, lawnmowers, or passenger vehicles older than 2001.

Before you pull up to the pump, follow these steps:

• Check Your Owner’s Manual: The U.S. Department of Energy Alternative Fuels Data Center notes that while it is generally EPA-approved for 2001 and newer cars, some manufacturers explicitly forbid it. Always check your manual or driver's side door jamb to ensure the automaker supports it.
• Understand the Fuel: E15 contains 10.5% to 15% ethanol. Because ethanol has a lower energy density than pure gasoline, you may see a slight drop in your miles per gallon (MPG).
• Avoid Small Engines: Never use E15 in off-road equipment, motorcycles, or boats, as the higher ethanol content can severely damage their fuel systems and void warranties.

But check your sources - Honda says not to use E15 in my 2006 CR-V.

Mr Global

A word about "we" being all manly macho, exporting all that oil.

It's Not Getting Better

Momentary "relief" is not what it seems.

It'll get better after it gets a whole lot worse. We've prob'ly got another year or two of what could be some really bad shit.

The battlefield is still not about missiles and bombs.

Mr Global

This is not a government - it's a trading desk with cruise missiles.

Mr Global

The law of Supply-n-Demand is a harsh mistress.

Another Mr Global

"We" are not going to make a lot of money, in spite of what Mr Trump tries to tell us.

The Dirty Fuels Cartel will make a lot of money, because they own a controlling share of our coin-operated politicians.

We - you and me and our friends and neighbors - will not make that money.

We will go broke filling the pockets of the plutocrats.