Oct 7, 2015

Pick A Bias, Any Bias

The more we learn, the more we understand how little we actually know.
A cognitive bias refers to a systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment, whereby inferences about other people and situations may be drawn in an illogical fashion.[1] Individuals create their own "subjective social reality" from their perception of the input.[2] An individual's construction of social reality, not the objective input, may dictate their behaviour in the social world.[3] Thus, cognitive biases may sometimes lead to perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment, illogical interpretation, or what is broadly called irrationality.[4][5][6]
Some cognitive biases are presumably adaptive. Cognitive biases may lead to more effective actions in a given context.[7] Furthermore, cognitive biases enable faster decisions when timeliness is more valuable than accuracy, as illustrated in heuristics.[8] Other cognitive biases are a "by-product" of human processing limitations,[9] resulting from a lack of appropriate mental mechanisms (bounded rationality), or simply from a limited capacity for information processing.[10]
A continually evolving list of cognitive biases has been identified over the last six decades of research on human judgment and decision-making in cognitive science, social psychology, and behavioral economics. Kahneman and Tversky (1996) argue that cognitive biases have efficient practical implications for areas including clinical judgment.[11]
Some examples:






A Music Thing

Tiny Desk Concerts

What You Don't Do
Unstoppable
Forget
--Lianne LaHavas


Oct 6, 2015

Refresher Time

Not milk and cookies so much - well, maybe, but grab enough for a couple meals or whatever; this can take a while.

The Power Of Nightmares Part 1: Baby, It's Cold Outside 


Oct 5, 2015

It's About The Guns


I don't know Nicholas Kristoff's stuff very well, so I'm not endorsing the whole package - I'm just saying he seems to be talkin' some sense here.
First, we need to comprehend the scale of the problem: It’s not just occasional mass shootings like the one at an Oregon college on Thursday, but a continuous deluge of gun deaths, an average of 92 every day in America. Since 1970, more Americans have died from guns than died in all U.S. wars going back to the American Revolution.
When I reported a similar figure in the past, gun lobbyists insisted that it couldn’t possibly be true. But the numbers are unarguable: fewer than 1.4 million war deaths since 1775, more than half in the Civil War, versus about 1.45 million gun deaths since 1970 (including suicides, murders and accidents).
If that doesn’t make you flinch, consider this: In America, more preschoolers are shot dead each year (82 in 2013) than police officers are in the line of duty (27 in 2013), according to figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the FBI.
--and--
Daniel Webster, a public health expert at Johns Hopkins University, notes that in 1999, the government listed the gun stores that had sold the most weapons later linked to crimes. The gun store at the top of the list was so embarrassed that it voluntarily took measures to reduce its use by criminals — and the rate at which new guns from the store were diverted to crime dropped 77 percent.
But then he comes up with this clinker:
But in 2003, Congress barred the government from publishing such information.
Why is Congress enabling pipelines of guns to criminals?
Why? Really?

 

Like the man said: Follow the money.

Coin-Operated Politicians do what they're told to do by the people who put them in power, and keep them in power.  And those "people" ain't me (even tho' I always go out and vote), and it sure as fuck ain't you when you decide you're above it all and refuse to vote.  

And just to be clear here - it ain't me (even tho' I do vote) because you don't vote.  You're sitting on your ass letting the rest of us do all the work; and then you continue to sit on your ass, bitchin' about how fucked up everything is, even tho' you refuse to pitch in and help.

So in the case of guns and public health policy, what exactly is the Number of Dead Children that we have to reach before you give up your stoopid sorry-ass excuses for neglecting your baseline responsibility as a US citizen?


Oct 3, 2015

Runnin' With Jeb

So Jeb Bush supporters are all up in arms because his "stuff happens" comment when asked about the dead college kids in Oregon prompted a landslide of snarky tweets, and of course, his communications team (and the usual Pundits and Press Poodles) are falling all over themselves trying to control the damage, saying he was quoted out of context and blah blah blah.

I could point out that he did actually say "stuff happens"; and even tho' it was contained in a  longer statement and he was trying to make the "larger point" about not rushing to do something in a rash reactionary way (which is easily seen as bullshit deflection), here's the thing: too fuckin' bad, cupcake.  

Your guys have been taking shit outa context and/or makin' shit up outa nothin' for a good 25 years. So cry me a river, muhthuhfuckuh.  Payback's a bitch, ain't it?


Oct 2, 2015

Today's Trevor

Interesting that he gives us a peek at ourselves from the outside - pointing out that we're maybe a little too much like those other joints to be walkin' around thumping our chest trying to tell everybody how "exceptional" we are.

Sep 28, 2015

Today's Sendup



hat tip = Facebook buddy VWE

Today In Stoopid

The Super Blood Moon got some folks pretty spooked, I guess:
The AP said it’s unclear how many Mormons are buying into the end-of-the-world prophecy, but leaders of the church were concerned enough to issue the statement assuring them that the world is not about to end.
Preparedness is one of the tenets of the Mormon faith, which believes that a period of disasters and tribulations will precede the second coming of Jesus Christ. Many Mormon-built homes in Utah and other southwestern states feature special built-in shelves for rice, flour, canned goods and other nonperishable supplies.
The pronouncement by the church, said Patrick Mason — chair of Mormon studies at Claremont Graduate University in California — indicates that fear of the End Times must be fairly pervasive among Mormon families if church elders felt the need to address it.
“For it to filter up to that level and for them to decide to send out a policy letter means that they felt there was something they needed to tamp down on,” said Mason.
Sometimes I wonder why you'd spend time or effort telling these pea-brains to get ready for the shit when ya gotta know you'll have to talk 'em down off the ledge when they get all worked up and thinking the shit you've been "warning" them about is here and real and happening.

But then I remember this is all part of the big bamboozle anyway, so it's just the cost of doin' bidness.

These particular believers are so thoroughly hornswoggled they're wearing magic underwear.  So I'm thinking it comes as no surprise to church execs when they hear the faithful are willing to buy into some bullshit about the moon.  And of course it's easily debunkable, but why would the rubes not believe it when they've been very well taught to be totally committed to staying ignorant and superstitious?

Satan's greatest trick was convincing us that the people who insist that Satan exists will deal honestly with us if we just give them enough money.

And I don't really have to make this last little connection for anybody, right?

Sep 27, 2015

I Blame Paris Hilton




It's a critter for fuck's sake - one of God's critters if you prefer.  And not to get too PETA all over the place, but you don't get to make this implied tacit claim of "dominion" to provide cover for doing whatever the fuck you want.

Sunday Funnies


Sep 24, 2015

That Clock Kid

"...that's not a wall of explosives..."

Uh-Oh (re-try)

2nd attempt.  And I'll try to quell that shitty feeling I always get in my gut when I try to post something about this kinda stuff and it fails due to "tech problems" at Google or whatever.

Anyway, via Charlie Pierce:
The mathematician wanted to examine the voting tapes after something didn't add up. Clarkson explained, "I don't understand why those patterns are there, the patterns are very definitely real. But we don't know what's causing them or why they're there. They do fit what would be expected if election fraud is occurring, and that's very concerning." In Sedgwick County, the voting tapes record every stroke a voter makes on the machine. The Election Commissioner there said the tapes are 385 feet long and are stored in 42 boxes. However, in Johnson County, voting is done primarily on electronic machines where there is no automatic paper trail. They're machines which Clarkson said can be easily hacked.
Smoke doesn't always mean fire - sometimes it looks like smoke when it's actually just a little ground fog after a rain or some bugbrain trying to prove something with his new Vape thingie or whatever.  This looks a whole lot like a whole lotta smoke.

Today's Best Garphic

From tengrain at Mock Paper Scissors


Mellow Morning

Morning Aire --Tommy Emmanuel




Waiting --Calum Graham & Don Ross



Dawgmatism --David Grisman




Jesus, Joy Of Man's Desiring --Leo Kotkke





Sep 23, 2015

Today's Quote 2


"You should always go to other people's funerals; otherwise, they won't come to yours."​ --Yogi Berra
You don't have to be a baseball fan to love a guy like Yogi

Today's Quote

"Let nature do the freezing and frightening and isolating in this world. Let men work and love and fight it off." --Jack Kerouac, Windblown World: The Journals of Jack Kerouac 1947-1954

Sep 22, 2015

Call It A Win


She's headed for a jail cell, at least temporarily, but the fact she survived the initial encounter - plus the simple fact there was a good buncha witnesses - just might combine to make it more likely she'll stay alive thru the rest of her ordeal.  

And that could mean that whoever's next stands a tiny bit better chance of being treated a tiny bit better as well.

Watchfulness and locks help honest people stay honest.  Transparency and citizen oversight help good cops stay good.

hat tip = AlterNet

Today's Tweet

Da Donald's social media squad decided to try a Twitter Interview, and (as happens pretty much every fucking time) they got some questions that were prob'ly not quite what they were looking for.  This one's the best I've seen so far:



I'm gonna make a radical assumption here, and say there's prob'ly a coupla job openings at the Trump campaign right about now.

Sep 21, 2015

Wherefore, Repubs?

There's no Republican Party anymore.  There's just a string of independent contract franchisees, looking for the opportunity to make a tidy commission on helping their billionaire sugar daddies take their pound of flesh.



These guys know a coupla important things about USAmerica Inc.

First, they know this joint's net worth is something like $124 Trillion.


One Hundred-Twenty-Four. Trillion. Dollars

Second, they know the hard part is done; we're convinced we have the requisite imaginary disease(s)...
  • Immigrants-Gone-Wild
  • FEMA Camps and Gun-Grabbers
  • Muslims hiding under our beds waiting for a chance to kill us and rape our house pets
  • Scary Black People
  • Foreign Competition
  • etc etc etc
...so all they have to do is look for a chance to sell us the miracle cure; the make-believe crutches - and some snake oil to take the edge off tomorrow morning when we get that nagging feeling that this is the same old shit - zealotry dressed up to look like common sense - and that we fall for it every fuckin' time.

This isn't an election - it's not even a hostile takeover - it's a leveraged buyout to be staged during the run-up to the Stockholders' Meeting next November.  And guess who's gonna end up holding the bag when it's done?

These people have no soul and no honor.

Sep 20, 2015

Is We Learnin'?

Some of us just never get tired of being played for suckers.

Police charged 45-year-old Scott Lattin with making a false report after arresting him at his home in Whitney, Texas. While the suspect denied the accusation during a brief on-camera interview, his arrest warrant stated that he admitted to damaging the truck for “insurance reasons.”
Lattin organized the fundraiser after claiming last week that vandals spray-painted “Black Lives Matter” across his truck as well as “F*ck the police” because he had decorated the vehicle with the phrase “Police Lives Matter” in support of Harris County Deputy Darren Goforth, who was shot and killed at a gas station last month. Both authorities and conservatives have attempted to connect Goforth’s death with the movement, seemingly without any evidence.

Hey - It's Sunday


Beats goin' to church.

Go, Bernie

Try to look past the very simple and very obvious fact that Mark Halperin is an Authoritarian Corporate Propagandist trying to pass himself off as a Political Journalist.



We didn't just get into this mess yesterday, so we're prob'ly not gonna be able to fix it all by tomorrow.

But more specifically - on the usual crap that "conservatives" are always tossing around about "Balanced Budget From Day One", here's your line, Bernie:  "While you can definitely spend your way to oblivion, you can't save your way back to prosperity."  

But while we're working on getting The System back up and running, we have to get a coupla things thru our thick skulls.

First and foremost - stop giving these guys the benefit of the doubt. 
--It's not like Halperin doesn't know what makes the economy work.  
--And it's not like Jeb isn't aware of the fact that Supply Side is bullshit.  
--We have to stop thinking Ted Cruz is trying to practice some good old fashioned democratic self-governance, but he's just not very good at it; or that we simply disagree on the questions of how we should go about moving towards that more perfect union.

I look at what the GOP has been doing for 30+ years, and I get a very bad feeling very deep in my gut.

Is Our Voters Learnin'?


hat tip = FB buddy DCR

Sep 19, 2015

Today's Pix









Today's Connection

Like the man said - follow the money.

I wonder if nice fat campaign contributions from the Healthcare Sector to (largely) Repub politicians...


...together with this little info-nugget...



...might have anything at all to do with the drive to kill Planned Parenthood.

And like Molly said - ya gotta have the balls to drink their liquor and bed their women and take their money, and then vote against them anyway.

Here ya go guys - take two of these and call your pollsters in the morning.



Today's FB Looney

I could be reading this wrong (yeah, that happens), but this looks a whole lot like "We need to create a society of superior victimizers instead."(?)
"An eye for an eye only ends up making the whole world blind." - Mahatma Gandhi


But leaving the jaw-dropping defeatism aside for just a moment, maybe they're onto something - just not something they're aware of - maybe what we need to do is teach kids how to resist buying into this kinda bullshit, peddled by jagoffs who think in terms of, "Fuck your hippy Jesus - peacemakers are fags."

The Real News

The best TV is not on TV.

Today's Larry

Gotta work pretty hard to find the funny sometimes, and sometimes, it's just not there to be found.

Sep 18, 2015

A Few Late Friday Tunes

Richland Woman Blues --Maria Muldaur



What The Rain Will Bring --Pokey Lafarge



You Don't Know Me (cover) --Michael Grimm



Brain Damage --Roger Waters


Jesus Wept

There's always a dark and ugly side to Populism, and here's a perfect example:



Gotta give Trump some props though. He's doing one thing really well - he's using a sales tactic called "Isolate And Bypass".  He knows this questioner is a complete fucking moron, but Trump also knows he currently has that guy's vote and he's not gonna get anywhere without it, but he can't afford not to widen out beyond his looney-tunes base if he expects to have any chance at all once he gets past the first coupla Primaries.  So he has to deflect - "we're looking into it".  He doesn't embrace this nutball, but he doesn't alienate him either.

And he uses the Sales-y language that makes it easier for his Spinmeisters to twist it all into whatever shape is needed to continue the illusion that Trump is never ever ever wrong about anything.

Like this (via Crooks & Liars):


You may have noticed Wednesday nite, when Trump and Jeb got into it over the Florida casino thing - Jeb saying he torpedoed Trump, and Trump coming back with the standard blustery blowhard-ery, "If I'd wanted it, I woulda got it, believe me."

So what I think the Press Poodles should ask at the next "debate" is this: 
  • "In your career, what have you gotten wrong - what mistakes have you made?" 
--and/or-- 
  • "What 2 decisions in your professional life would you like to revisit now, and what would you do differently to improve the outcome?"

(Of course, while the Poodles may actually ask the questions, I'm betting they wouldn't think to follow up and demand a real answer after each candidate tried to make a funny out of it.) 

Anybody willing to spin some kind of Infallibility Bullshit about themselves or any of their mentors, role models or idols should never get anybody's vote for anything.



Sep 17, 2015

Fact Checking

FactCheck.org
The Republican presidential candidates met for their second debate on Sept. 16, this one hosted by CNN at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and Museum in California. We found they strayed from the facts on numerous issues, including:
--Donald Trump told a story linking vaccination to autism, but there’s no evidence that recommended vaccines cause autism. 
--And Sen. Rand Paul suggested that it would be safer to spread out recommended vaccines, but there’s no evidence of that, either.
--Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush said Trump donated to his gubernatorial campaign to get him to change his mind on casino gambling in Florida. But Trump denied he ever wanted to bring casino gambling to the state. A former lobbyist says he did.
--Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee said that Hillary Clinton was “under investigation by the FBI” because she “destroyed government records.” Not true. She had the authority to delete personal emails.
--Trump said that “illegal immigration” cost “more than $200 billion a year.” We couldn’t find any support for that. Actually, it could cost taxpayers $137 billion or more to deport the 11 million immigrants in the country illegally, as Trump proposes.
--Trump again wrongly said that Mexico doesn’t have a birthright citizenship policy like the United States. It does.
--Carly Fiorina said that the Planned Parenthood videos released by an anti-abortion group showed “a fully formed fetus on the table, its heart beating, its legs kicking while someone says we have to keep it alive to harvest its brain.” But that scene isn’t in any of the videos.
--Fiorina repeated familiar boasts about her time at Hewlett-Packard, saying the size of the company “doubled,” without mentioning that was due to a merger with Compaq, and she cherry-picked other statistics.
--Florida Sen. Marco Rubio said that U.S. policies to combat climate change would “do absolutely nothing.” The U.S. acting alone would have a small effect on rising temperatures and sea levels, and experts say U.S. leadership on the issue would prompt other nations to act.
--In the “happy hour” debate, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham glossed over the accompanying tax increases when he said only that Ronald Reagan and then-House Speaker Tip O’Neill “found a way to save Social Security from bankruptcy by adjusting the age of retirement from 65 to 67.”

Today's Tweet

A Faint Glimmer

Always looking for the light on the horizon that might suggest we ain't dead yet:
As I outlined a while back, Democrats have their work cut out for them if they want to win back the Senate in 2016. Two of the best bets to flip a seat from Red to Blue are Rep. Tammy Duckworth in Illinois and Russ Feingold in Wisconsin. A new poll has both Democrats leading in the early stages of their respective races.

Sep 16, 2015

Ew, Carly

Carly Fiorina got in on the outrage act.  Close to being red-faced and hysterical, it seemed she had really occupied the roll of incensed partisan, and she rode that pony right up to the edge.
“As regards Planned Parenthood, anyone who has watched this videotape, I dare Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama to watch these tapes. Watch a fully formed fetus on the table, its heart beating, its legs kicking while someone says we have to keep it alive to harvest its brain.” -- Carly Fiorina

Unfortunately - Fiorina might have trouble finding the videotape to show Clinton. No video has surfaced showing the scene Fiorina describes taking place inside a Planned Parenthood facility.


So go blow yourself with it, lady.

Today's Best Blog Line

From the guy who should be everybody's blogging hero - Charlie Pierce, writing about Trump:
He's not a myth. He's just a fake. It's the difference between Homer and Clifford Irving.
And from the comments: Benito Trumpolini

If this shit was any less tragic, it wouldn't be funny. 

Sep 15, 2015

Today's Wondering

So to start things off, Donald Trump slags the fuck outa the US Hispanic population.

Then he spends a few stump speeches and TV appearances telling us what unbelievably crappy negotiators America's business and government leaders are because they can't get a trade deal without sending everybody's jobs to Mexico and China.

Next, he straight out stomps on Megyn Kelly on national TV in front of god and everybody, which leads pundits all along the political spectrum to say (essentially) that he's acting like a developmentally arrested adolescent with a raging case of something that looks like a cross between Gynophobia, Little Man Syndrome and Late Stage Syphilitic Dementia.

And now, Mr Trump spins the yarn about how he's always felt he was in the military because he spent a coupla years at a prep school that happened to require the bad boy legacy fucks who get sent there to fix their behavioral problems to wear uniforms that were more or less reminiscent of those worn by members of the actual Military Division of USAmerica Inc.  Put that one together with the John McCain is no hero comment, and you're not gonna be the most popular dog at that particular kennel club.

Brown people
Business guys
Women
Military

He's alienated every major slice of the voter demo that everybody knows the GOP has to score big with if they want any chance at all.

So I guess my question is: How much longer will we wait; what else does the guy hafta do before Alex Jones floats the False Flag hypothesis?  And will it be the plain vanilla version of Trump wanting to destroy the GOP, or will it go higher than that, with Trump being nothing less than a cat's paw for the Bilderbergs and blah blah blah?


Maybe it really is just Trump being Trump - it's nothing but Brand Boosting; and he's spouting all this weird shit looking for the exit line that nobody will give him.

But at the same time, I can't stop thinking about Poe's Law - "...without a clear indicator of the author's intent, parodies of extreme views will, to some readers, be indistinguishable from sincere expressions of the parodied views."

It's a wonderment.

Sep 14, 2015

Quiz Time

Take the Science quiz at Pew Research Center
How much Americans appear to know about science depends on the kinds of questions asked, of course. Science encompasses a vast array of fields and information, and the questions in the new Pew Research survey represent a small slice of science knowledge. On Pew Research Center’s set of 12 multiple-choice questions – some of which include images as part of the questions or answer options – Americans gave more correct than incorrect answers; the median was eight correct answers out of 12 (mean 7.9). Some 27% answered eight or nine questions correctly, while another 26% answered 10 or 11 items correctly. Just 6% of respondents got a perfect score.
These findings come from Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel, a nationally representative panel of randomly selected U.S. adults. The survey of 3,278 adults (including 2,923 adults online and 355 respondents by mail) was conducted Aug 11 - Sept 3, 2014.
The test is easy - almost ridiculously so - and not because I'm just that fucking awesome.

And I don't think it's important to know these few things just because they're important things to know in and of themselves.  They are, but - I think we have to widen that out and understand that it's important for us to know these (or other) things as a way of keeping ourselves better-informed in a more general sense.

What did Mr Jefferson say about the health of a democracy being dependent on a well-informed electorate?  

And what's become apparent as far as people being well-informed in the age of Alex Jones and Benny Hinn and DumFux News?

Sep 13, 2015

Schools


We "tried" desegregation and integration for about one generation, and just as the "achievement gap" was closing in a very significant way; just as minorities were beginning to manifest the side bennies of education (longer healthier lives, net worth, etc), we bailed.  We gave in to the whiny-butt pussies of the Radical Right and we fucking bailed - on ourselves.

hat tip = Ta-Nehisi Coates via twitter

Sep 12, 2015

Today's Maher


Rushdie makes the point that the bigots are always on about how everybody's treating them oh so very badly.  You may notice, btw, that this is the standard play that so many "conservatives" pull all the fucking time.
  • Calling them out for being intolerant means you're being intolerant.
  • Call them out for some racist shit they say, and it means you're the real racist.
  • Tell them to stop using their religious beliefs to rationalize discrimination against LGBT, and you're discriminating against them because of their faith.
  • Smack down a bully, and that just means you're bullying the bully.
But the killer point comes (starting at about 2:00) when Linda Chavez demonstrates perfectly that she's way past her freshness date.  She launches into the same old crap about how (paraphrasing) "people need time to be brought along slowly".  Bullshit.  Comfortable white people said exactly the same thing in the 50s and 60s when asked about Segregation and "Black Rights".  Comfortable owners and managers said exactly the same thing when union organizers were demanding fair labor practices.  

US history is chock full of examples of foot-dragging on issues that basically have centered on getting this country to start living up to the promises it made to itself.  You know - "all men are created equal" and that silly old notion of "a more perfect union" thing.  Go back as far as you feel like going, and you'll find another Linda Chavez telling us that "they want too much too soon - it's all moving too fast - people need time to get used to it - it's all so new, these ideas of equality and fairness".

Stay with this Tim Wise thing til about the 4:00 mark:


If I plug in the word "gay" when I hear "black" or "people of color", and substitute "straight" for "white", suddenly it seems as if some of these concepts are in fact kinda universal - oooh, maybe that's what Mr Jefferson meant by "we hold these truths to be self-evident"(?).

Change can be a scary thing, but we're supposed to treat people right - and we can't afford to continue not treating people right just because it's inconvenient; or because we think we need our families and our friends and our neighbors to agree with us first.